ATL: CHANTAL - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach, South
Carolina to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.




Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of
the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and
scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with
maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about
80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east
and southeast of the center. Based on these developments,
advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The
cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly
shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west.

The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the
center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt. During the next 24 h,
the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast
side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern
Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered northward with
a gradual increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the
center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. A
generally northward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates over land. While the guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast
direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier.
The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA
corrected consensus model.

The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the
upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the
upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds
are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of
convection the system produces. Most of the guidance shows some
development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity
forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before
the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the
intensity consensus.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening,
with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the
deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly
shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level
center. The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with
data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite
trends.

The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term
motion is basically stationary. A slow north-northwestward motion
is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on
the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the
northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered
to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed
along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion
should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina
Sunday morning. The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east,
consistent with the latest guidance.

The global models generally indicate that the current shear should
lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in
combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. There is
plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit
significant development, as well as the current disheveled
structure. The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening
as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows
suit, near the latest model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three between Saturday
through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur
within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the
Carolinas.

3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 30.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES



Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

The depression has been showing signs of organization overnight,
with a significant burst of deep convection currently seen on
GOES-19 infrared imagery on the eastern semicircle of the tropical
cyclone. However, the center of the tropical depression appears to
still be displaced westward from this burst, estimated to be on the
edge of the larger cirrus plume. An earlier scatterometer pass
received just after the prior advisory indicated the peak winds were
up to 32 kt, so the depression may be close to tropical storm
strength. For now though, the initial intensity is being held at 30
kt blending the lower subjective and higher objective Dvorak
intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is
scheduled to sample the system later this morning and should provide
more in-situ information about the cyclone later today.

The depression continues to meander this morning, with my best guess
at an estimated motion to be at 030/2-kt. The track forecast in the
short-term is somewhat tricky, since the lopsided nature of the
convection with the system suggests that there could be some center
reformations/relocations to the north and/or east later today.
Thereafter, the main steering features are a mid-to-upper level low
over the northeastern Gulf, and a narrow mid-level ridge to the
northeast of the depression. Their combined influence should result
in a general north-northwestward track over the next 24-36 h. The
track guidance this cycle has come in further east this run,
somewhat in response to the adjusted initial position. The NHC track
forecast has been shifted eastward in response to this shift in the
guidance, favoring the deterministic ECMWF (EMXI) over the GFS
(AVNI), but it is not as far west as some of the track aids,
including the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and European
deterministic AIFS (EAII).

The vertical wind shear over the system is probably the most
unfavorable it will be as the system remains over the warm Gulf
Stream waters. In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance
shows the current southwesterly shear decreasing from 20 kt
currently to more like 10-15 kt over the next 24 h. However, there
is some dry mid-level air lurking to east that might temper more
robust intensification. All things considered, assuming the
depression becomes better aligned vertically, at least some modest
intensification should occur, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
still shows a peak intensity of 40 kt before the system moves inland
over South Carolina on Sunday Morning. While this forecast is on the
upper end of the interpolated intensity guidance, the raw output
from both the 00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B have a peak intensity a little
above that value in 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken
and is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 h. It is a
little unclear if the circulation will open up into a trough by
early next week or if some remnant circulation will move back
offshore beyond that time period. For now, the NHC forecast will
stick to the former solution showing dissipation by 60 h.

Given the eastward shift in the guidance this cycle, the Tropical
Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Cape Fear, North Carolina
this advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three from today through
Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more
urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas.

3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 30.8N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 31.5N 78.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 32.6N 79.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0600Z 34.8N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 07/1800Z 36.3N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from the South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from the South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC.




Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and
gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most
of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the
east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently
investigating the system and have found that the pressure has
dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong
thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are
beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and
conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are
expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day.

Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the
north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering
features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a
narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow
between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over
South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center
reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion.
After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm
moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies
close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind
solutions.

Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal
is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind
shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to
shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for
strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than
the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and
HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until
the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours.

Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day
or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to
the right of the landfall location.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could
occur within more urbanized areas in the coastal plain of the
Carolinas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...CHANTAL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 78.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

The satellite presentation of Chantal has not changed much
throughout the day with convective banding and a concentrated area
of deep convection located over the eastern semicircle of the
storm. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
investigated Chantal through midday found a peak 850-mb flight-level
wind of 51 kt which supported the increase in winds to 40 kt on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory. With no significant change in
structure since that time, the intensity remains 40 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this evening.

The moderate shear that has been affecting Chantal is forecast to
decrease some this evening, however drier mid-level air appears to
be being entrained into the western part of the circulation.
Therefore only slight strengthening is predicted before Chantal
reaches the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday.
After landfall, steady weakening should occur and the system is
expected to open up into a trough by Monday.

Recent fixes show that Chantal has begun moving a little faster
toward the north with an initial motion estimate of 360/6. The
track guidance suggests that the storm will turn north-
northwestward between a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf
and a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. A turn to
the northeast is expected after landfall as Chantal becomes more
embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of
the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCA
multi-model consensus, which is close to the previous NHC forecast.

Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas will cause flash
flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 31.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 78.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM CHANTAL SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 78.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Strong convection continues to persist in the northeastern quadrant
of Chantal, with the center located on the southwestern edge of the
burst. This convection has been causing a gradual increase in
organization of the storm, with an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft recently reporting 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt,
which equate to about 45 kt at the surface. This data is also close
to derived velocity radar data from Wilmington, showing peak 8000 ft
winds of about 55 kt, and TAFB's latest satellite classification of
45 kt. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with these
values.

The current motion estimate is 350/7, and Chantal could turn to
the north-northwest before landfall due to a narrow mid-level ridge.
A turn to the northeast is expected later on Sunday as Chantal
becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the
west side of the ridge. There is little time left for any
intensification, and Chantal should make landfall within the next 6
hours at about the present intensity (45-50 kt). Steady weakening
will occur after landfall with the loss of the warm water heat
source, and Chantal is expected to dissipate over eastern North
Carolina by early Monday. The track forecast was nudged to the
east, with little change to the intensity forecast.

Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina will cause flash
flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 32.7N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[LarryWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 78.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Recent aircraft and land-based radar velocity data indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall,
with rapid weakening forecast after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. Within the past hour, Springmaid Pier in South
Carolina reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to
56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde
data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL NOW MOVING INLAND INTO FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS PUSH ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Before the Air Force Reconnaissance plane departed Chantal this
morning, their final leg observed 700 mb flight level winds of 59 kt
and a dropsonde estimated pressure down to 1002 mb. Near the same
location as those peak flight-level winds, NWS Doppler Radar
velocities from Wilmington showed persistent 65-70 kt inbound values
at 3-5 thousand feet. These data points were the basis for
increasing Chantal's winds to 50 kt at the 06 UTC intermediate
advisory. Since that time, the structure of the tropical storm on
radar has degraded and the exact center has been difficult to pin
down, but appears to have made landfall near Litchfield Beach, South
Carolina at approximately 08 UTC. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 45 kt for this advisory given the degradation in
appearance now just after landfall and the decreasing Doppler radial
velocities.

Chantal is estimated to now be moving north-northwestward, at 345/7
kt. A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated by the
end of today as the cyclone rounds the westward side of a mid-level
ridge located off the U.S. East Coast. The latest NHC track forecast
is shifted just a bit eastward, mostly based on the initial
position, but falls in line closely to the prior forecast track in
24-36 h. Weakening has already started as Chantal moves inland.
Weakening should continue as the full circulation moves inland, with
Chantal likely weakening back to a tropical depression later today.
The majority of the global and hurricane-regional models then show
the circulation opening up into a trough after 36 h, though its
likely Chantal's remnant moisture will continue onward into the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States after this time period.

Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning
area through this morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina
will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Storm Chantal
today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Isolated
to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 33.6N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL
MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 79.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF CONWAY SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES AS RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 79.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF LUMBERTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

The center of Chantal has been moving inland over northeastern South
Carolina this morning and is currently near the North and South
Carolina border. Surface observations indicate that the winds have
decreased, and the system is now being classified as a 30-kt
tropical depression. The cyclone should continue to weaken today as
it moves farther inland. The global models show the circulation
opening up into a trough of low pressure on Monday, with the remnant
moisture moving northeastward along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
through early Tuesday.

Chantal is moving northward or 360/8 kt. A turn toward the
northeast is anticipated later today or this evening as the cyclone
moves around the western side of a mid-level ridge located off the
U.S. East Coast. The latest track prediction is similar to the
previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat from Chantal will be heavy rainfall that is
likely across portions of eastern and central North Carolina into
Monday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Chantal. Future advisories on this system will be issued by
the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).
Those advisories can be found on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.


Key Messages:

1.Flash flood concerns continue today across portions of central
North Carolina into Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding
could occur within more urbanized areas.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach
goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 34.4N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 07/0000Z 35.4N 79.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1200Z 37.0N 77.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 9
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032025
500 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES AS RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 79.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood watches are in effect for...
* Central North Carolina
* South-central Virginia


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 79.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17
km/h). Chantal is expected to move at a faster forward speed as it
turns more northeastward over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is expected overnight as it moves farther inland
with some slight restrengthening possible as it nears the Virginia
Capes on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Chantal will continue to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of central North Carolina and
south-central Virginia into Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. An elevated
risk for flash flooding will continue.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html


TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible today over parts
of eastern North Carolina.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 10
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032025
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL MOVING INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES AS RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 78.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF DANVILLE VIRGINIA
ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM SW OF NEWPORT NEWS VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood watches are in effect for...
* Central North Carolina
* South-central Virginia


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 78.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward
speed on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Chantal will continue to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of northern North Carolina Sunday night
and Virginia into Monday. Storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches,
with local amounts up to 9 inches, is expected. Rainfall amounts
in the 7 to 8 inch range have been measured west of Durham between
Goldston, Burlington, and Caldwell. An elevated risk for flash
flooding will continue into Monday.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 11
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032025
500 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

...CHANTAL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 78.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF DANVILLE VIRGINIA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF NEWPORT NEWS VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Flood Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of South-Central and Eastern Virginia
* Portions of Southern and Eastern Maryland
* Portions of Delaware
* Portions of Southern New Jersey
* Portions of Southeastern Pennsylvania


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Advisory Number 12
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032025
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

...CHANTAL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF NEWPORT NEWS VIRGINIA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF DOVER DELAWARE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Flood Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of Eastern Virginia
* Portions of Southern and Eastern Maryland
* State of Delaware
* Portions of Southern New Jersey
* Portions of Southeastern Pennsylvania

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Discussion Number 13
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032025
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal will continue
to result in flash flood concerns across portions of the Delmarva,
New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania into this evening. Isolated to
scattered flash flooding is possible (particularly within more
urbanized areas).

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. East Coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach
goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.

[cycloneye]

The last advisory issued by WPC.

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Advisory Number 14
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032025
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL
HAS WANED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 73.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES