WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

JMA first track.

Issued at 2025/07/04 01:30 UTC
Analysis at 07/04 00 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°00′ (20.0°)
E118°55′ (118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[cycloneye]

JTWC first warning.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 05W IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SLOWLY ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE STR CENTERED
NEAR SHANGHAI. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX
IS LIKELY TO TRACE AND ERRATIC TRACK, LOOPING TO THE SOUTH AS IT
PRECESSES AND UNDERGOES AN AXISYMMETRIZATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX. HOWEVER, IN THE AGGREGATE, THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOW RATE OF SPEED. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A HARD RIGHT TURN AS THE STR TO THE NORTH
PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND THE STR CENTERED IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST
MOVES WEST, WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH PUSHES EAST OVER KOREA
RESULTING IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM KOREA
TO EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. TD 05W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE COMPLEX THROUGH TAU 96. AROUND
THE TIME THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MAINLAND
CHINA (NEAR TAU 96), THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS ONCE
MORE TO THE STR OVER KOREA AND THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INLAND OVER
EASTERN CHINA THROUGH TAU 120. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT
ROUGHLY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS, AS THE
VORTEX BECOMES VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THE PACE OF INTENSIFICATION
INCREASES FROM TAU 24 AS THE TUTT STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
TAIWAN, ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. WHILE THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48, THE ACTUAL PEAK IS LIKELY
TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 60, AND COULD BE 10-15 KNOTS HIGHER, AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ENTRANCE TO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. WHILE
PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT, EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF TAIWAN
WILL DISRUPT THE VORTEX, LEADING TO A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND PASS
THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. BY THE TIME IT LEAVES THE STRAIT, THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT EXPERIENCES
INCREASED SHEAR AND DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL RAPID WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FURTHER INLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT, WITH ROUGHLY HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A WEST OF
TAIWAN TRACK AND HALF SUPPORTING AN EAST OF TAIWAN SCENARIO. ECMWF,
ECEPS, EC-AIFS, GALWEM AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN ALL SUPPORT THE JTWC
TRACK UP THE WEST SIDE OF TAIWAN AND THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE
GFS AND GEFS MEANWHILE CLIP THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN AND TRACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN EAST CHINA SEA TO THE WEST OF OKINAWA. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT, THOUGH ALL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS TRACK EAST OF
TAIWAN AND ALL BUT FIVE MEMBERS OF THE ECEPS TRACK WEST OF TAIWAN,
WITH SOME STRONG MEMBERS PUSHING INLAND EAST OF HONG KONG. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE EC-AIFS TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE FAVORS THE WEST OF TAIWAN TRACK. THE HWRF TAKES THE SYSTEM
OVER TAIWAN AND THUS SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48, BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A PEAK OCCURRING AT TAU 48, WITH
A RANGE BETWEEN 60 AND 95 KNOTS. THE HIGHER-END MODELS INCLUDE THE
RIDE AND RICN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) MODELS, BOTH OF WHICH ARE
TRIPPED. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS
THROUGH TAU 24 THEN INCREASES AT A FASTER RATE THROUGH THE PEAK.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Went further west than expected. Not getting the big ACE one to watch but some impacts over Taiwan and Southern Chin

[cycloneye]

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY AND TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BUILDING STR ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST. TD 05W
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE TO ROBUST DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE
TAIWAN STRAIT, IT SHOULD WEAKEN AS WARM, DRY AIR ADVECTS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS OF TAIWAN AND ENTRAINS INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. AFTER TAU 72,
TD 05W WILL TURN SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN CHINA UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. RAPID WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: OVERALL, TRACK AND INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IS ASSESSED
AT LOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK AND EXTENDED
PERIOD TRACK NEAR TAIWAN. DUE TO THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THE PROXIMITY TO LAND MASSES AS THE SYSTEM THREADS THE NEEDLE THROUGH
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC TRACKER, HOWEVER, HAS SHIFTED
FURTHER WEST AND IS IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE AIDS ENVELOPE.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
THROUGH TAU 48, WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE TRIGGERING.

[cycloneye]

Hayabusa or anyone, have stats about how many storms or typhoons have moved from south to north thru the Taiwan straits? I guess is not common to have that track.

[Hayabusa]

Hayabusa or anyone, have stats about how many storms or typhoons have moved from south to north thru the Taiwan straits? I guess is not common to have that track.

That's a tough one, I just asked Gemini and only get the seems right answer:
Typhoon Kalmaegi (2008)
Tropical Storm Linfa (2009)
Typhoon Morakot (2009)
and Typhoon Kong-rey (2024) too? I probably missed more...

[cycloneye]

JMA has not upgraded to TS but JTWC did, so it remains officially a TD.

Analysis at 07/04 12 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°10′ (20.2°)
E117°40′ (117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

05W FIVE 250704 1200 20.3N 118.0E WPAC 35 1001

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm DANAS.

T2504(Danas)
Issued at 2025/07/04 19:30 UTC
Analysis at 07/04 18 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°05′ (20.1°)
E117°10′ (117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area S220 km (120 NM)
N165 km (90 NM)

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO BUILD. ACTUAL TRACK MOTION IS UNCERTAIN THROUGH TAU 24
THOUGH, AS THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS COMPETING. AFTER TAU 24,
THE STEERING PATTERN WILL BE MORE DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM WILL PICK
UP SPEED IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRAJECTORY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL STOP
THE VORTEX AND DRIVE IT WESTWARD INTO MAINLAND CHINA. IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY, 05W IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE NORTHERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO BACK OFF. A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 75 KTS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 36-48. NEAR TAU 72, 05W
WILL BEGIN INCHING TOWARD THE COAST OF CHINA AND LAND INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN TO WEAK THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
ADVECT OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VORTEX. AFTER TAU 72,
SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL CAUSE 05W TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
THE REMNANT VORTEX MOVES OFF TO THE WEST.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.2N 117.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 368 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 05W (DANAS) WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BURSTS OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 050016Z GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE VORTEX HAS BECOME
MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BECOME LESS
RESTRICTED DUE TO THE NORTHERLY SHEAR LESSENING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
NOW CHARACTERIZED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MENTIONED GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE
ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 050000Z
CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 050000Z
CIMSS DPRINT: 40 KTS AT 050000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS COMPETING.
AFTER TAU 12, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BUILD AND CAUSE THE STEERING PATTERN TO BECOME MORE DEFINED. 05W
WILL THEN INCREASE TRACK SPEEDS IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
DIRECTION, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, RIDGING WILL EXTEND OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE
VORTEX, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO MAKE A SHARP WESTWARD TURN INTO
MAINLAND CHINA. REGARDING INTENSITY, 05W IS FORECAST TO NEARLY
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
AROUND TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENTER THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA WILL CAUSE
05W TO BEGIN MARGINALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIT.
NEAR TAU 72, AS THE VORTEX INCHES TOWARD THE COAST, INCREASING LAND
INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE MOUNTAINS WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO FURTHER WEAKEN. ONCE 05W MAKES THE SHARP TURN INTO CHINA,
DISSIPATION WILL BE IMMINENT. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
AROUND TAU 96, AS THE REMNANT VORTEX TRACKS FURTHER OFF TO THE
WEST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 170 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
72. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE MOST WESTWARD LEANING
MEMBERS, KEEPING THE VORTEX CLOSER TO THE COAST OF CHINA THAN THE
REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS GREATLY
DIVERGE. SOME MODELS TAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST (UKMET,
JGSM, AND GFS) WHILE OTHERS TAKE A BROADER TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST (ECMWF AND GALWEM). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
TAU 36. PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 70-100 KTS WITH THE HIGHER END
CONSISTING OF THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS THAT CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER. THE JTWC PEAK IS FORECAST TO BE 80 KTS, IN LINE WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 48, ALL MODELS DEPICT WEAKENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
VORTEX BEING SO CLOSE TO LAND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK. SMALL
VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD CAUSE LARGE CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY
OF THE STORM AS IT TRAVERSES THE TAIWAN STRAIT.

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS CAUSING THE
TRANSLATION SPEED TO OSCILLATE AROUND 3 KTS, WHILE THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE TAIWAN STRAIT. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE NER
TO THE EAST WILL BUILD AND AID IN DEFINING THE TRACK OF TS DANAS.
AROUND TAU 72 HOWEVER, NER WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSIT FURTHER SOUTH,
WHILE THE STR TO THE NORTH BUILDS AND EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST,
RESULTING IN TS 05W SHARPLY TURNING TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA. IN
TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, AS INDICATED BY MULTIPLE MODEL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS, INCLUDING SPECIFIC RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS (FRIA,
RIDE, RIPA, DTOP AND RICN), AS LONG AS THE VORTEX REMAINS OVER THE
WARM STRAIT WATERS. AROUND TAU 48, ONCE TS 05W MAKES A WESTWARD
TURN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN AND EVENTUALLY MAKES
LANDFALL, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING. FULL DISSIPATION
OVER LAND IS FORECAST BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH 55 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36, WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS TRANSITING OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, EXPANDING TO 110 NM, JUST
NORTH OF THE STRAIT. ONE IMMEDIATE OUTLIER IS UKMET (EGRI) TRACKER
INDICATING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN AROUND TAU 36. BEYOND TAU
48, THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
THEREFORE THE LANDFALL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS
WELL, AS WITNESSED BY STRONG AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TIMELINE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY SPREAD, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT 40 KTS, EXCLUDING THE RI AIDS. THE TIMELINE OF
DISSIPATION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
INDICATING INTENSITY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AT OR BEFORE TAU 96,
FOR ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. OVERALL GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE IS OFFSET
BY TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ITS IMPACT ON INTENSIFICATION RATE IN
RELATION TO ANY POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
WITHIN OR NEAR THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THEREFORE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

[cycloneye]

Impressive radar loop of the eye forming and all the rain.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/arielrojasPH/status/1941519306787106852

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COMPETING STEERING FLOW
ENVIRONMENT IS INDUCING A SLOW AND FLUCTUATING TRANSLATIONAL
MOTION, AVERAGING APPROXIMATELY 3 KTS, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
TAIWAN STRAIT. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, STRENGTHENING OF THE NER
TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE,
GUIDING TS 05W NORTHEASTWARD. BY APPROXIMATELY TAU 48, THE NER IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRESS SOUTHWARD, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AMPLIFIES AND EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD,
PROMPTING TS 05W TO MAKE A SHARP WESTWARD TURN TOWARD MAINLAND
CHINA. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS, SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING RI-SPECIFIC AIDS SUCH AS FRIA, RIDE, RIPA, DTOP, AND
RICN. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS CONTINGENT ON THE SYSTEM REMAINING
OVER WARM WATERS OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA, LIKELY
SOUTH OF WENZHOU, AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN, INITIATING A
PHASE OF RAPID WEAKENING. COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS
PROJECTED BY TAU 96.

[Hurricane2022]

A big and beautiful eye will clear in the next few hours.

[cycloneye]

[mrbagyo]

buoy 2 at the Taiwan straight recorded 38.6 m/s (16:42 local time) outside the northwest eyewall.

[cycloneye]

Finnally JMA upgrades.

T2504(Danas)
Issued at 2025/07/06 12:50 UTC
Analysis at 07/06 12 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°55′ (22.9°)
E119°35′ (119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)

[cycloneye]

Made landfall in Taiwan.



 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1941897917943472633