ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 92, 2025070400, , BEST, 0, 295N, 800W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 80, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006, SPAWNINVEST, al752025 to al922025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922025.dat

[Sciencerocks]

[AnnularCane]

For some reason I kept thinking we were on 91L. But that's right, we had TWO storms.

[Beef Stew]

I would be surprised if we don't end up seeing Chantal briefly out of this.

[Nimbus]

Solid convection building this morning.

[tropicwatch]

Surface observations indicate that there is a surface circulation.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area
of low pressure located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida
coast. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or
subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while
the system drifts northward. This low is expected to move inland
over the southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across
portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early
Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning
later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2025070412, , BEST, 0, 307N, 792W, 25, 1011, LO

[ronjon]

Best track circulation appears a little too far north. I'd estimate it closer to 30.2 N. Recon is flying into it today so we'll have a better fix on the LLC. It's in its formative stage now so center could easily relocate under heavier convection. Most global models show a slow W-NW motion the next 24-36 hrs then a turn toward the north. Based on VIS SAT I'd call it a depression now. It's getting sheared moderately now from the W-SW so that might prevent it from becoming a hurricane. Think this will easily become tropical storm Chantal.

[wxman57]

We're starting advisories. Looks like a semi-tropical low moving inland near Charleston tomorrow night. Could have a small area of TS wind well-removed from the center up the coast, but not carrying inland. Models only indicate an inch or two of rain, mostly for North Carolina. I was surprised NHC kept chances at 60%. If they went "high" (70%) then they'd need to start PTC advisories according to their procedures. I think they'll start advisories this afternoon. Weak, sheared Chantal within 24 hrs.

[Kingarabian]

Looking better than the first two named systems IMO. Should be named or PTC'd soon.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1941123970344034634

[MGC]

Looks to be on its way to becoming a TC. Based on radar I'd speculate that recon finds a TD......MGC

[Sciencerocks]

Based on satellite and surface ob's I'd say this is already a tropical depression or storm. Has about 48 hours and could get up to 45 knts. I don't expect a very strong system but anything can happen!

[cycloneye]

They are going to wait for the plane that goes this afternoon to see how is the structure of it.

[Buck]

Oh yeah, she’s on her way for sure.

This is my first post of the season. Good to be back. Happy 4th everyone!

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1941159485835473375

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 150 miles
off the northeast Florida coast has become better defined today with
an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and
thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the
center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could
form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally
north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the
southeastern U.S. by early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect
should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

[Tailgater33]

A good bit of shear hitting it ATM, exposed circulation tops quickly being blown off. Mid level circulation looks pretty healthy I’d be watching for reformation there.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like the shear is pushing the convection away from the lower rotation.

GOES-19 Meso Sector GeoProxy + Octane Movement and Direction.