Texas Summer 2025

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Happy 4th of July for everyone EXCEPT for those that are in Kerrville, Center Point, Ingram, Hunt or Comfort. Flash Flood Emergency along the Guadalupe River. Over 10 inches overnight. More rain predicted throughout the day. This may rival 1987.

If you are in any part of Kendall County or Comal County along the Guadalupe River, be alert as this wave makes it way downstream towards Canyon Lake. This includes Waring, Sisterdale, Guadalupe River State Park, and Spring Branch.

San Antonio should be fine for the day, as the Low Pressure isn’t really moving much. Just light rain right now.

[Texoz]

Ongoing flooding occurring in the Hill Country/ West Central TX. Looks like a warm core low has developed.

https://i.ibb.co/272L2BNg/IMG-1205.gif

Couple questions.
1) Did any models forecast this?
2) Looks like its drifting slowing SE? Could it maintain this intensity and slide between ATX and SA this afternoon/tonight? That would make for a significant flooding event if it does.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Ongoing flooding occurring in the Hill Country/ West Central TX. Looks like a warm core low has developed.

https://i.ibb.co/272L2BNg/IMG-1205.gif

Couple questions.
1) Did any models forecast this?
2) Looks like its drifting slowing SE? Could it maintain this intensity and slide between ATX and SA this afternoon/tonight? That would make for a significant flooding event if it does.

1. From what KSAT’s weatherman has been saying, the models have been lousy at predicting this. From what I’m seeing on the models, he’s kinda right.

2. It looks like the CoC is sliding SE. Earlier this morning it was smack over Menard County. Now it’s sliding over the northern parts of Kimble County (Junction). If this trend continues, this would be a bigger rain chance for SA and NB.

Update: Bexar County is in a flood watch until 1 PM along with Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Edwards, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr, Kinney, Llano, Medina, Real, and Uvalde counties.

Side question: Is this the remnants of Barry?

[txtwister78]

A few of the hi-res models like HRRR and ARW were putting out some alarmingly high rainfall totals yesterday. RGEM also had that depicted

The other giveaway was the amount of tropical moisture in place across SC TX and so all you need is a trigger. We got that in the form of this vort max that moved over the region from west texas and so there's your lifting mechanism. The problem is it's just sitting over one area and thus the insane flooding and flash flood emergencies.

But I posted yesterday this was a possibility and being that we're talking about a geographical location (hill country prone to catastrophic flooding) along with the short period of time that rainfall has fallen with the rates being what they've been, it's obviously creating a dangerous life and property situation for many along and near the Guadalupe River. WPC says an additional 4-6 inches possible today.

[Texas Snowman]

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
904 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KERR COUNTY, INCLUDING HUNT...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for... Northwestern Bandera County in south central Texas... Central Kerr County in south central Texas...

* Until noon CDT.

* At 904 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain in Numerous low water crossings as well as the Guadalupe River. Between 5 and 11 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for South-central Kerr County, including Hunt. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Kerrville, Ingram, Hunt, Waltonia, Kerr Wildlife Management Area and Lost Maples State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks.

&&

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

[Texas Snowman]

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
724 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER FROM CENTER POINT TO SISTERDALE...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for... West Central Kendall County in south central Texas... Eastern Kerr County in south central Texas...

* Until 200 PM CDT Friday.

* At 724 AM CDT, Automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is already occurring.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for THE GUADALUPE RIVER FROM CENTER POINT TO SISTERDALE. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Residents in campers should SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding along the Guadalupe River is expected.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Comfort, Waring and Sisterdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks.

&&

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

[Texoz]

Ongoing flooding occurring in the Hill Country/ West Central TX. Looks like a warm core low has developed.

https://i.ibb.co/272L2BNg/IMG-1205.gif

Couple questions.
1) Did any models forecast this?
2) Looks like its drifting slowing SE? Could it maintain this intensity and slide between ATX and SA this afternoon/tonight? That would make for a significant flooding event if it does.

1. From what KSAT’s weatherman has been saying, the models have been lousy at predicting this. From what I’m seeing on the models, he’s kinda right.

2. It looks like the CoC is sliding SE. Earlier this morning it was smack over Menard County. Now it’s sliding over the northern parts of Kimble County (Junction). If this trend continues, this would be a bigger rain chance for SA and NB.

Update: Bexar County is in a flood watch until 1 PM along with Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Edwards, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr, Kinney, Llano, Medina, Real, and Uvalde counties.

Side question: Is this the remnants of Barry?

I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been flash flood watches issued for counties along I-35 from Round Rock to San Antonio. This core looks to be drifting on a path that takes it toward Austin or a little south.

[utpmg]

Using LCRA Hydromet I see 15.44" in 24 hrs at Mason and it's still raining. Very curious to see the final affect on lake Travis; I've seen it surge 20' before after similar event, but I don't know.

[txtwister78]

Couple questions.
1) Did any models forecast this?
2) Looks like its drifting slowing SE? Could it maintain this intensity and slide between ATX and SA this afternoon/tonight? That would make for a significant flooding event if it does.

1. From what KSAT’s weatherman has been saying, the models have been lousy at predicting this. From what I’m seeing on the models, he’s kinda right.

2. It looks like the CoC is sliding SE. Earlier this morning it was smack over Menard County. Now it’s sliding over the northern parts of Kimble County (Junction). If this trend continues, this would be a bigger rain chance for SA and NB.

Update: Bexar County is in a flood watch until 1 PM along with Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Edwards, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr, Kinney, Llano, Medina, Real, and Uvalde counties.

Side question: Is this the remnants of Barry?

I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been flash flood watches issued for counties along I-35 from Round Rock to San Antonio. This core looks to be drifting on a path that takes it toward Austin or a little south.

San Antonio (Bexar) is currently under a Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM today which was just extended by the NWS.

This system is drifting SE and may not move much today across the region. The one thing that may limit this from becoming more widespread is cloud cover/temps. The other factor is where your best lift is with respect to the position of the low. So that's why some may get a ton of rain where others don't relative to the axis of the spin associated with this system.

Tomorrow we may see an extension of the FFW if the HRRR is accurate as the 12z extended run shows 7-8 inches of rain across western portions of San Antonio and perhaps impacting areas north just along and west of the 35 corridor. This will be a narrow corridor but.model trends need to be watched hourly basically.

[Texoz]

1. From what KSAT’s weatherman has been saying, the models have been lousy at predicting this. From what I’m seeing on the models, he’s kinda right.

2. It looks like the CoC is sliding SE. Earlier this morning it was smack over Menard County. Now it’s sliding over the northern parts of Kimble County (Junction). If this trend continues, this would be a bigger rain chance for SA and NB.

Update: Bexar County is in a flood watch until 1 PM along with Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Edwards, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr, Kinney, Llano, Medina, Real, and Uvalde counties.

Side question: Is this the remnants of Barry?

I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been flash flood watches issued for counties along I-35 from Round Rock to San Antonio. This core looks to be drifting on a path that takes it toward Austin or a little south.

San Antonio (Bexar) is currently under a Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM today which was just extended by the NWS.

This system is drifting SE and may not move much today across the region. The one thing that may limit this from becoming more widespread is cloud cover/temps. The other factor is where your best lift is with respect to the position of the low. So that's why some may get a ton of rain where others don't relative to the axis of the spin associated with this system.

Tomorrow we may see an extension of the FFW if the HRRR is accurate as the 12z extended run shows 7-8 inches of rain across western portions of San Antonio and perhaps impacting areas north just along and west of the 35 corridor. This will be a narrow corridor but.model trends need to be watched hourly basically.

Thanks. I see now that Bexar issued theirs this morning. Still wondering why watches for Comal, Hays and Travis are holding off.

[txtwister78]

I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been flash flood watches issued for counties along I-35 from Round Rock to San Antonio. This core looks to be drifting on a path that takes it toward Austin or a little south.

San Antonio (Bexar) is currently under a Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM today which was just extended by the NWS.

This system is drifting SE and may not move much today across the region. The one thing that may limit this from becoming more widespread is cloud cover/temps. The other factor is where your best lift is with respect to the position of the low. So that's why some may get a ton of rain where others don't relative to the axis of the spin associated with this system.

Tomorrow we may see an extension of the FFW if the HRRR is accurate as the 12z extended run shows 7-8 inches of rain across western portions of San Antonio and perhaps impacting areas north just along and west of the 35 corridor. This will be a narrow corridor but.model trends need to be watched hourly basically.

Thanks. I see now that Bexar issued theirs this morning. Still wondering why watches for Comal, Hays and Travis are holding off.

Sure. Yeah as mentioned not really expecting a risk for flooding across those countries today however tomorrow that may change depending on where the heaviest rainfall establishes itself then which again may be a little further east. This won't be as widespread further east however but a narrower corridor of heavier rain perhaps so NWS may hold off until the afternoon update as more model data arrives.

Bexar was added last night and extended until 7PM this morning. I think that's still more precautionary due to a high populated urban area being so close to the axis of heavier rainfall currently ongoing just to our NW and models not always being able to pinpoint these mesoscale features accurately. Good call by NWS especially considering the holiday weekend

[869MB]

It just hit me now that the CMC had a few runs late last week depicting a warm core cut off low pressure swirling over South Central TX for several days before ultimately dissipating. I thought those CMC’s model runs were interesting but I disregarded them because no other long range global model was depicting this scenario. The only aspect of this low pressure it forecasted incorrectly was maybe the actual timing of the heaviest rains.


Here is a snapshot of the Friday, June 27th 12Z CMC run forecasting heavy rains over SC TX for Monday, July 7th…

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn

[txtwister78]

Latest HRRR extended highlighting areas from Kendall to northern Bexar County for the potential of another round of significant flooding overnight into Saturday afternoon.

Important to track this tonight for any subtle trends as models won't be able to pinpoint exactly where this occurs as the low continues to meander across the region and so small placement changes could mean significant impacts for localized areas from the southern HC into the SA metro.

Stay safe folks.

[Texas Snowman]

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
206 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for... Mason County in west central Texas...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 205 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 10 inches of rain have fallen over the past several hours. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are possible in the next few hours in the warned area, and will only exacerbate the ongoing flooding. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Mason, Art, Grit, Hedwigs Hill, Streeter, Hilda, Katemcy, Camp Air, Fredonia, Loyal Valley, Long Mountain, Pontotoc, Koockville, The Intersection Of Highway 29 And Ranch Road 1222 and Us-87 Near The Mason-Gillespie County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

[Texas Snowman]

Flood wave continues down the Guadalupe River.

PDS Flash Flood Warning continues for the next hour.

————————-

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
124 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER FROM CENTER POINT TO SISTERDALE...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for... West Central Kendall County in south central Texas... Eastern Kerr County in south central Texas...

* Until 400 PM CDT.

* At 124 PM CDT, Automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is already occurring.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for THE GUADALUPE RIVER FROM CENTER POINT TO SISTERDALE. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Residents in campers should SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding along the Guadalupe River is expected.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Comfort, Waring and Sisterdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks.

&&

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

[Stratton23]

Good news for central texas folks, the rain shield is significantly weakening and breaking up, should just be some left over showers, but this event in terms of heavy rain look to be wrapping up

[snownado]

It seems DFW did sneak up to 90*F today with a few more breaks in the clouds.

[South Texas Storms]

Good news for central texas folks, the rain shield is significantly weakening and breaking up, should just be some left over showers, but this event in terms of heavy rain look to be wrapping up

Not yet. Another round of heavy rainfall will be possible across central TX tonight into tomorrow. The greatest threat with this next round looks to be a little south and east of where this morning's round occurred.

[JDawg512]

Good news for central texas folks, the rain shield is significantly weakening and breaking up, should just be some left over showers, but this event in terms of heavy rain look to be wrapping up

Not yet. Another round of heavy rainfall will be possible across central TX tonight into tomorrow. The greatest threat with this next round looks to be a little south and east of where this morning's round occurred.

To your point, there continues to be some persistent heavy rain across southeastern Mason and southwestern LLano counties. That looks to slowly move eastward. This might be the the catalyst for redevelopment as we move into tonight.

[Texas Snowman]

Flash Flood Warning
TXC453-051000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0052.250705T0541Z-250705T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR WESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN
BURNET COUNTY AROUND LAKE TRAVIS...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Travis County in south central Texas...

* Until 500 AM CDT.

* At 1241 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain in FM 1431 north of Lake Travis. Between 3 and 7 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 6 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Western Travis County and far eastern Burnet County around Lake Travis. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...Cedar Park, Leander, Lago Vista, Jonestown and Briarcliff.

This includes the following streams and drainages... Colorado River, Lick Creek, North Fork Brushy Creek, Fall Creek, Big Sandy Creek, Brushy Creek, Red Bluff Creek, South Fork Brushy Creek, Negro Branch, Cow Creek, Bee Creek and Post Oak Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 9813 3041 9814 3047 9810 3050 9810
3049 9812 3059 9807 3059 9792 3058 9792
3057 9793 3056 9792 3057 9790 3057 9789
3056 9789 3055 9787 3053 9787 3043 9797
3036 9807

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...6 INCHES IN 1 HOUR