2025 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has the NHC AOI and another one behind to continue the very active period for this basin. I think things will calm after these two. Edited to say at the tail end of run there is another one.



The third one.

[Yellow Evan]

As usual and given there is no MJO around, high likelihood that the GFS is being overzealous and both systems either don't happen or are much weaker. It's also worth noting for the first system that the EPS has stronger upper easterlies than the GEFS that likely would shear it.

[Kingarabian]

Going to side with the GFS here since this season has been anything but normal so far. All 3 systems the GFS shows after Flossie are there on the Euro and CMC. Just with different strengths.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Going to side with the GFS here since this season has been anything but normal so far. All 3 systems the GFS shows after Flossie are there on the Euro and CMC. Just with different strengths.

Additional storms are definitely possible but the GFS is on an island wrt intensity. Regarding the current 20/70 disturbance the GFS has an intense hurricane while the latter two models peak at a moderate TS.

[Yellow Evan]

Nice major hurricane GFS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific
basin, a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual
development of this system is expected during the next few days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

[Kingarabian]

Models cobrinue to show two long trackers.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

[Kingarabian]

Models lining up with the GFS. Good consensus that we'll see two solid systems over the next 10 days.

The dominant eastern EPAC -VP200 anomalies have extended west.

[cycloneye]

Models lining up with the GFS. Good consensus that we'll see two solid systems over the next 10 days.

The dominant eastern EPAC -VP200 anomalies have extended west.

Both reach CPAC and the back one Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

Invest 96E is up.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian Here is the second longtracker.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Rest of the models got a bit more bullish today but the GFS has backed off

[cycloneye]

Models in general are less bullish on this.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the models are seeing less favorable conditions on the basin and not develop the invest plus the second one, although some still have a very weak system.

[Astromanía]

Well, it was good while it lasted. Ironically, the 2018 season also had a shutdown in activity after a very active June