Area of Interest Near the Southeast U.S. Coast (Is invest 92L)

[GCANE]

According to latest GFS, vorts will develop over the weekend from surface to 250mb. How well they will stack depends on the degree of convection. Looking more and more likely we will have a TC over the weekend.

"Over the weekend"?
If it happens that soon the ULL near the Southeast coast will need to go warm core, too much shear otherwise. I could see the split front scenario next week with development near or north of the latitude of Bermuda.

The low that might develop in the gulf will likely be a piece of energy that we can track dropping down across the coast near NOLA as some intense thunderstorms. After the thunderstorms go stationary we can watch the surface pressures at the buoys to save C130 fuel.

GFS forecasts the ULL to be gone by Thursday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_11.png

[BobHarlem]

Area is up to 30% this morning, looking and the morning model runs where the Euro and GFS Show something popping up near Bermuda (and weaker stuff along the Gulf and SE), wouldn't be shocked if the lemon gets stretched out even further east later. Or even another lemon.

[ThomasW]

Area is up to 30% this morning, looking and the morning model runs where the Euro and GFS Show something popping up near Bermuda (and weaker stuff along the Gulf and SE), wouldn't be shocked if the lemon gets stretched out even further east later. Or even another lemon.

EURO ensembles like that "second system" a bit more now. I think it's just confusing the "signal" with the current one though.

[ThomasW]

Looking at that 6z EURO set...maybe this can really become the first storm of the season

[psyclone]

It seems like once or twice a summer we really get hosed with an onshore flow off of very warm water and about once or twice a summer we get faked out with a very heavy rain threat that fails to materialize and just puts us under a plume of stable gloom and clouds...without much rain. Both scenarios suck a good bit of energy from shelf waters and provide some heat relief. We don't get upwelling on the west coast...it's too shallow...but several days of cloudy gloomy weather will tank sea surface temps several degrees given a sufficiently high start point. rain totals so far have been tepid and future rain estimates continue to decline. I'm feeling better about avoiding a washout on the 4th weekend and tropical development chances seem low. This could well end up a net positive we will just have to see how things evolve.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off
the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some
gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter
as the low drifts and moves little. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,
particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Churchill

[Nimbus]

According to latest GFS, vorts will develop over the weekend from surface to 250mb. How well they will stack depends on the degree of convection. Looking more and more likely we will have a TC over the weekend.

"Over the weekend"?
If it happens that soon the ULL near the Southeast coast will need to go warm core, too much shear otherwise. I could see the split front scenario next week with development near or north of the latitude of Bermuda.

The low that might develop in the gulf will likely be a piece of energy that we can track dropping down across the coast near NOLA as some intense thunderstorms. After the thunderstorms go stationary we can watch the surface pressures at the buoys to save C130 fuel.

GFS forecasts the ULL to be gone by Thursday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_11.png

Quite a lot of shear blowing south over the Bahamas and the high pressure dome sweet spot is in the gulf by Thursday. Beginnings of a trough west of that in the time Thursday frame, I don't see a warm core transition from this GFS run. ULL could just fill and lift out by the weekend as you suggest though its only Tuesday.

[BobHarlem]

Gulf area seems to be persisting a little anyway. Nothing cyclonic though.

[tropicwatch]

850mb vorticity has increased fairly significantly in the gulf today.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[Stratton23]

If this does develop ( gulf or se coast) its going to be a mess of a system, 18z ICON again splits the disturbance into two parts, one moves west in the gulf and the other crawls inland off the se US coast, but the area in the gulf has seen some improvement today in terms of the 850 mb vort spin

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro ensembles ticked up quite a bit off the Southeast. Operational shows something going into NC next week AND another going over Bermuda around the same time. Not sure why the Euro is going a bit high wind wise on some of them, GFS ensembles aren't going that far.

[Nimbus]

850mb vorticity has increased fairly significantly in the gulf today.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

You can see the front all lit up with lightning strikes this evening as it descends down through Mississippi.
Front could easily split off the southeast coast in response to the ULL but I'm watching the energy headed for the gulf since there is less forecast shear(at least the one run I looked at) and the threat to the gulf coast is possible.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts over the weekend along a weakening front.
Although significant development is not anticipated, a tropical or
subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or
early next week while the system drifts and moves little. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the
southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[Ian2401]

Two straight days of deep convection over the NE Gulf has increased and concentrated 850mb vorticity quite a bit. Can see a very broad circulation on visible (if you squint). Front comes in tomorrow draping more low level vorticity over the region. Probably will have a better idea once the front is through and vorticity starts to consolidate more. If this happens along the coast or inland, probably not much in the way of tropical development. If this happens in either over the NE Gulf or off the eastern coast of FL/GA, conditions should be marginally favorable for some slow development.

[GCANE]

Looks like ICON is developing a wave further to the east.
May have a surface low Monday 7/7 at 26N 67W.

[GCANE]

Looks like ICON is developing a wave further to the east.
May have a surface low Monday 7/7 at 26N 67W.

ICON has is under an anticylcone while GFS is showing it on the SW side of the tail of a TUTT.
Either way, upper-level conditions look favorable.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal
boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression
could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while
the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly
across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[hiflyer]

Icon 12z. 989mb just wsw of Bermuda at 00z 10Jul.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Stormcenter]

All of the weather seems to be further west.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop along a weakening frontal
boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern
United States by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical
or subtropical depression could form in this region over the
weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or
northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across
the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Blake