2025 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

Long tracker probably in the cards soon. What a start, the SOI has never really been solidly Nina for a long time now. The warming/WWBs in the far eastern eq Pacific during this past winter season was definitely odd considering.

[cycloneye]

Long tracker probably in the cards soon. What a start, the SOI has never really been solidly Nina for a long time now. The warming/WWBs in the far eastern eq Pacific during this past winter season was definitely odd considering.

Interesting about the SOI thing. and that may mean the atmosphere is not behaving like a neutral to weak La Niña.

[Kingarabian]

What's just as strange is the EPAC outperforming the WPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Entering July and the models continue to favor the EPAC heavily. That is surprising.

[StormWeather]

Entering July and the models continue to favor the EPAC heavily. That is surprising.

This is heavily starting to resemble 2018 in some aspects to a T.

2018 had 6 NS in the EPAC by July 1st (2025 has done the same)
2018 in the WPAC produced a strong typhoon in early July. The models are wanting a strong typhoon as well in the upcoming days in the present (2025)


A bunch of the the EPAC’s six storms in both 2018 and this year 2025 have been short-lived.

[StormWeather]

Entering July and the models continue to favor the EPAC heavily. That is surprising.

This is heavily starting to resemble 2018 in some aspects to a T.

2018 had 6 NS in the EPAC by July 1st (2025 has done the same)
2018 in the WPAC produced a strong typhoon in early July. The models are wanting a strong typhoon as well in the upcoming days in the present (2025)


A bunch of the the EPAC’s six storms in both 2018 and this year 2025 have been short-lived.

One difference between 2018 and this year is that 2018 was still in the +PDO era. 2025 is in the current -PDO era.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

2018 had a strong +PMM that this year can only dream of having and had twice the ACE YTD. I do think if the 200 mbar patterns shown so far and shown in models persists we can reasonably achieve normal to slightly above normal numbers but that's still an if at this point in time.

As for the WPAC, June is less activity than even May there due to the Mei-yu front so the relative inactivity observed there is normal for this time of year.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

[cycloneye]

GFS has more EPAC activity on the pipe with the remnants of the first one near Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

2018 had a strong +PMM that this year can only dream of having and had twice the ACE YTD. I do think if the 200 mbar patterns shown so far and shown in models persists we can reasonably achieve normal to slightly above normal numbers but that's still an if at this point in time.

As for the WPAC, June is less activity than even May there due to the Mei-yu front so the relative inactivity observed there is normal for this time of year.

Overall the WPAC is well bellow normal in regards to ACE though.

Been a while since we've seen a -PDO/-PMM combo this stout. I agree this is nothing like 2018.

[Kingarabian]

Long tracker probably in the cards soon. What a start, the SOI has never really been solidly Nina for a long time now. The warming/WWBs in the far eastern eq Pacific during this past winter season was definitely odd considering.

Very odd whats going on with the GFS showing back to back long trackers.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian 18z GFS sends the AOI to Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian 18z GFS sends the AOI to Hawaii.

https://i.imgur.com/fozG7V2.png

Annual Hawaii scare

[cycloneye]

2 AM PDT.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin around 180 miles
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.