2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seems to be broad agreement across the Euro, GFS, and Canadian for tropical development off Florida to start July.

[Stratton23]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a lemon off the florida east coast and expanding to the eastern gulf within the week, GFS/ CMC/ Euro all have something

[BobHarlem]

Pretty big spread on this one
12ZGFS Gulf side

canadian Off Southeast

Icon, Off southeast

euro off the southeast

The ensembles and google's new one is all over Link here

Pretty annoying for any 4th of July plans this coming weekend pretty much anywhere in the south east.

[ronjon]

Add in the 12z Euro-AI as it develops a weak low off the FL west coast and meanders it slowly NW toward the FL panhandle. All models point toward slow development in 5 to 7 days. All are weak so far.

[Stratton23]

Looking at the 500 mb height pattern on ensembles at this range, at least to me, if something were to try to get going in the NE gulf, it would get shoved to the west because ensembles favor strong upper level ridging over the eastern and central US, things can change but ensembles have been rather consistent with showing this upper air pattern

[psyclone]

WPC 7 day QPF shows 5"+ along the Gulf coast from Tampa bay to Mobile bay. Very wet times ahead for the NE Gulf region.

[Stratton23]

Time frame for any development in the NE gulf has moved up on the 18z GFS, starts developing a surface low at day 5, by day 7 its a tropical storm taking more of a westward track in the gulf

[DunedinDave]

Damn 4th of July fireworks in TB not looking good.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has what appears to be a cat.2 into SELA.

[MetroMike]

The 18Z GFS accumulated precip has double digit rainfall totals for Tampa Bay thru the run.
May change but that's what it shows now.

[TallyTracker]

Pretty big spread on this one
12ZGFS Gulf side
https://i.imgur.com/lPr8psZ.png
canadian Off Southeast
https://i.imgur.com/cNZZOoL.png
Icon, Off southeast
https://i.imgur.com/AZ4wYtM.png
euro off the southeast

The ensembles and google's new one is all over Link here

Pretty annoying for any 4th of July plans this coming weekend pretty much anywhere in the south east.

The Canadian looks like it has a TS off the east coast and something else lingering in the Northern Gulf. That’s old school Canadian! Why not have both? lol

[Stratton23]

Basically it looks like an upper level low menadering around florida could be the catalyst for development in the 5-6 day range, its going to be very tricky for models to handle that energy, so expect some wild runs, but i will say the GFS has an upper air pattern that would produce significant flooding across a wide swath of the gulf coast states

[Teban54]

[ronjon]

Yep 18z GFS goes bananas with a 972 mb hurricane striking New Orleans from the east. Thankfully it's just the GFS and 210 hrs out.

[chaser1]

That model runs gives me Elena vibes

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It's quite far out in time, but the AIFS Euro has been persistent in showing borderline development of a strong wave in the MDR mid-month for a few runs now. I interpret this as a sign of perhaps a more favorable window of opportunity opening the second half of the month in the deep tropics.

[OURAGAN]

[Stratton23]

18z GFS shows some gulf mischief in the 9-10 day window as another front stalls out along the gulf coast, energy pinches off into the NE gulf, could be something to watch if runs persist and if any other models start seeing it

[StormWeather]

18z GFS shows some gulf mischief in the 9-10 day window as another front stalls out along the gulf coast, energy pinches off into the NE gulf, could be something to watch if runs persist and if any other models start seeing it

Dexter is the next name on the list if this possible stalled front ends up producing. Dexter is a new name and so it would be used for the first time. Hope Dexter makes it enterance quietly when and where it forms.

[Nimbus]

18z GFS shows some gulf mischief in the 9-10 day window as another front stalls out along the gulf coast, energy pinches off into the NE gulf, could be something to watch if runs persist and if any other models start seeing it

GFS predicted energy would reach the gulf at the tail end of the front that spawned Chantal.
Thunderstorms couldn't do much with the stable dry air in the gulf though, surface pressure dropped from 30.11 to ~29.90 but nothing developed.