ATL: BARRY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2025062718, , BEST, 0, 183N, 905W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 160, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al742025 to al912025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912025.dat

[TomballEd]

Some of the GFS and Euro ensembles spin up a weak low straight into Mexico. One (of 50) ECENS gets it over 40 knots, a named storm for sure. No where near closed off on satellite, a lemon seems about right.

If it does become a TD, it would be the first TC of the year of tropical origin. X post on Talking Tropics thread suggests well below normal instability and above normal shear in the Caribbean but perhaps the BoC isn't as hostile. CIMMS shear analysis and GFS forecast shows favorable divergence and low shear staying over Central America. But the ensemble members, while in the minority, that show development of the low must be seeing the little anticyclone getting over water.

[Nimbus]

There is a weak relative circulation over inland Yucatan already so after this gets out over water it should reach TD status pretty quickly.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche (AL91):
A broad area of low pressure centered over the southwestern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula and the
adjacent waters. This system should emerge over the Bay of Campeche
later tonight, and some development is possible on Saturday and
Sunday if the low remains over water. By Monday, this system should
move inland over eastern Mexico, ending its chances of additional
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Low splashing to the water.

AL, 91, 2025062800, , BEST, 0, 186N, 916W, 25, 1011, DB

[cycloneye]

[ronjon]

Looks like a TD already based on radar. Could be our 2nd TS of the season.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche (AL91):
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the broad
low pressure area over the southwestern Yucatan Peninsula is
emerging over the Bay of Campeche. This system is currently
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent waters. Some
development is possible today and Sunday as the low moves generally
west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during
this time. By Monday, this system should move inland over eastern
Mexico, ending its chances of development. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern and eastern Mexico during the
next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Bay of Campeche (AL91):
An area of low pressure located in the eastern Bay of Campeche near
the Mexican coastline continues to produce a broad region of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the Yucatan
Peninsula and adjacent waters. Additional development is possible
today and Sunday as the low moves generally west-northwestward, and
a tropical depression could form during this period while the system
remains over the waters of the Bay of Campeche. By Monday, this
system should move inland over eastern Mexico, ending its chances of
development. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2025062812, , BEST, 0, 191N, 935W, 25, 1010, DB

[Tailgater33]

Looks like our recent small B storm trend will continue ( with a few exceptions). Barry, Bill, Bob, Bret etc. in the BOC.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like our recent small B storm trend will continue ( with a few exceptions). Barry, Bill, Bob, Bret etc. in the BOC.

Beryl also was a weak TS near/over BOC

[Teban54]

Quite a nice convective blowup:

[tropicwatch]

Quite a nice convective blowup:

https://i.postimg.cc/nr01RYTX/goes19-ir-91-L-202506281155.gif

Have been watching that this morning, staying pretty persistent. 91L might be trying to put on a show for the Hurricane Hunters this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Yes!!!! Plane is flying!!!!

[ChrisH-UK]

I think this will have a good chance to become Barry why it the Bay of Campeche its notorious for spinning up storms from systems like this.

[Sciencerocks]

Broad LLC with convection over it. I wouldn't be shocked to see advisories for a PTD2 at 5pm. Probably depression or tropical storm by 5am.