WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 250628 0000 13.1N 141.5E WPAC 15 0

[cycloneye]

Can't even say if this ensemble is from 97W...12Z

You posted that at the 97W thread and maybe this new invest clarifies things on the models.

[cycloneye]

How are the models doing with this invest? Hopefully there is better data about the enviroment in terms of MJO, troughs and ridges feeding to them.

[Hayabusa]

How are the models doing with this invest? Hopefully there is better data about the enviroment in terms of MJO, troughs and ridges feeding to them.

Looks like this is the one the models are developing and then tracking northeast

[Hayabusa]

00z

[cycloneye]

98W INVEST 250629 1800 15.2N 134.1E WPAC 20 1004

GEFS and EPS ensembles.

[cycloneye]

The models develop this area, but so far is void of convection however,it has a well defined circulation.

98W INVEST 250630 0000 15.4N 132.6E WPAC 20 1005

[cycloneye]

Finnally Hayabusa, here is JTWC with the first discussion.

[Hayabusa]

00z

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY 677 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BUILDING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A RECENT
300028Z ASCAT-C PASS PORTRAYS THE SUSPECTED AREA TO BE A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF
10-15 KNOTS, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE LOW LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI tracks this WNW towards near Hong Kong without any significant development

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Could we finally see our first 30+ ACE storm since Koinu 2023?

If (and only if) the GFS is right, we could see future Mun ra k up quite a lot of ACE.

[cycloneye]

GEFS



EPS

[cycloneye]

12z Euro operational with a strong Typhoon and GFS the same.

[cycloneye]

Convection has been increasing in the past few hours.

[cycloneye]

Could we finally see our first 30+ ACE storm since Koinu 2023?

If (and only if) the GFS is right, we could see future Mun ra k up quite a lot of ACE.

Euro also develops it into a strong typhoon. Let's see in real time what will it do but has good potential to rack up ACE.

[cycloneye]

Development remains low for the next 24 hours.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BUILDING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A RECENT
300028Z ASCAT-C PASS PORTRAYS THE SUSPECTED AREA TO BE A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS INDICATE LOW LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

There is now significant development from Euro AI but the track is still towards near Hong Kong

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest GFS favoring a Korea track after meandering the Ryukyu region. Stays a typhoon for a whopping nine days (approx)

[cycloneye]

Ensembles from GFS and Euro.