2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC has what appears to be a retrograding weak low off of the FL panhandle in about 8 days.

[Stratton23]

Kingarabian 18z GFS kinda has that as well at day 9, weak low pressure kind of just meandering around in the NE gulf

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian 18z GFS kinda has that as well at day 9, weak low pressure kind of just meandering around in the NE gulf

Yeah just seen that run. In these cases its 50/50 these systems can hug the coast and dump a lot of rain or go further down south over warm waters and quickly spin up.

[BobHarlem]

After Andrea, not much, although the hint of another short-lived something off the Southeast coast late next week still being picked up on by the Euro and CMC. Right now on the satellite side, nothing but a tease on the ir in the Western Bay of Campeche.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro tries to develop weak low pressure in the SW gulf just before moving in land in central mexico at day 5 , interesting

[Stormlover70]

Looks like June will be storm free.

[crownweather]

Looks like June will be storm free.

Tropical Storm Andrea would like a word.


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[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like June will be storm free.

Tropical Storm Andrea would like a word.


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That actually might be a testament to how short-lived Andrea was , if you weren't really paying close attention to the tropics or took a break from tropical tracking due to the recent stretch of inactivity, then you probably would've never guessed that the Atlantic actually did manage to produce a named storm haha

[Stratton23]

Models are starting to hint at energy pinching off the se us coast or NE GOM from a stalled front over the southern US, GFS and CMC both show something in the 8-10 day range, wil lsee if euro shows anything soon

[Steve H.]

Okay, so what is that blob to the northeast of Honduras? Looks interesting. Btw, tidbits seems to be down.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1938213491581636622

[Brent]

I'm also seeing several people on Facebook talking about the Gulf next week

[jaguars_22]

The bay of campeche is going to get mentioned in my opinion by the end of the weekend... whatever forms will go straight into mexico... Keeping us far enough north in texas

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The bay of campeche is going to get mentioned in my opinion by the end of the weekend... whatever forms will go straight into mexico... Keeping us far enough north in texas

It's obviously weak, but there does appear to be something on the CMC, Euro, and AI Euro, and there is an EPS signal as well. Funnily enough in this case the GFS of all models doesn't show anything, lol.

[Category5Kaiju]

So here are the latest long-range ECMWF ensembles. We have the current outlined BoC disturbance, and then there's a possible signal for another subtropical spinup. Latest CMC actually shows the system in the subtropics becoming what looks to be a bona fide tropical storm. At best, the Atlantic spawns two more named storms by the time July rolls around. Quite the potential for early season activity. Also, quite a change from merely a week ago, when it really looked like the Atlantic would remain completely dead for all of June, into July.

[underthwx]

Might not get our first storm until July

Good morning yall. I'm curious about the STR. What exactly is it? And what role does it play in tropical weather?

That's a fair question considering that I do not believe that "STR" is an actual meteorological acronym; At least not one that I've ever read in any meteorology text books. I could merely guess that the STR abbreviation that one or more people have used to shorten their description of some particular weather related condition or event. So, take your pick LOL..... STRatus, SubTRopical storm, Subtropical Ridge, etc. I'm guessing the reference regards the strong surface ridge currently in place over the SW Atlantic extending to the SE CONUS.

Thanks! Much appreciated!

[Stratton23]

18z GFS shows some development in the 7-10 day range in the NE gulf as a result of a frontal boundary stalling out, heads west towards lousiana/ upper texas coast

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC has what appears to be a retrograding weak low off of the FL panhandle in about 8 days.

18z GFS now showing this.

[WeatherBoy2000]

00z CMC has what appears to be a retrograding weak low off of the FL panhandle in about 8 days.

18z GFS now showing this.

The 06z run now develops a tc, the cmc develops a TC off the SE coast and directs into the Carolinas. Although the euro operational doesn't develop anything, it has fairly decent support from the eps for development of its kind (a few members even deepen it to a hurricane). This looks to be the next opportunity for Barry or Chantal, depending on what happens in the BOC.

[DunedinDave]

Looks like a wet week in FL next week with whatever sits in the NE gulf per the Euro and ICON.