WPAC: INVEST 97W - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 250625 0600 12.2N 142.3E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Latest two runs by the Euro AI and latest Euro run backed off developing a major typhoon from this, GFS still developing. 00z

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Let's see which camp prevails between GFS and Euro with GFS having a strong typhoon while Euro barely has something. At 06z GFS keeps developing a very strong typhoon. Apart from those two, CMC develops a typhoon but not as strong as GFS

[dexterlabio]

12z Euro had something fwiw

[Hayabusa]

06z eps weaker than yesterday's 06z

[cycloneye]

The models continue with no consensus on 97W with different scenarios on both intensity and tracks. Look what I am talking about here at ensembles from GFS and Euro.

[TomballEd]

It looks like the scatter in the GFS/Euro ensembles have increased since yesterday. Whatever forms may be able to miss all large land masses.

[Hayabusa]

It's like models don't know what to form, I could understand if this is still pre-June, but we're now coming in July.

[cycloneye]

Agreed. Look at GFS with the double to even triple things almost at the start of 12z run.

[cycloneye]

It's like models don't know what to form, I could understand if this is still pre-June, but we're now coming in July.

How is July in terms of tropical formations? On average, how many form? By the way, 12z Euro operational has nothing developing from this invest thru 240 hours.

[Hayabusa]

It's like models don't know what to form, I could understand if this is still pre-June, but we're now coming in July.

How is July in terms of tropical formations? On average, how many form? By the way, 12z Euro operational has nothing developing from this invest thru 240 hours.

It's 3-4 on average based on 1951-2015

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Mon ... _353785921

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased in the past few hours, but nothing that looks to be organizing right now.

[cycloneye]

Now at low.

[cycloneye]

They relocated at BT from 12.9N at 18z to 14.9 on 00z.

97W INVEST 250626 0000 14.9N 142.7E WPAC 20 1009

[Hayabusa]

00z...

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.9N 142.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED
FLARING CONVECTION. A 252320Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 97W,
GFS GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS LITTLE TO NO
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
DEVELOPMENT THAN THAT OF ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

The Euro comes back at 12z with development.

[cycloneye]

As the circulation moves north, it will get more favorable conditions to then develop.

[cycloneye]

97W INVEST 250627 0000 17.1N 138.3E WPAC 15 1009