EPAC: ERICK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1935542461415211202

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1935541606154912236

[Teban54]

Hmm, what's with the huge convective blob to the SW?

[REDHurricane]

Hmm, what's with the huge convective blob to the SW?

https://i.postimg.cc/brqGH999/goes19-ir-05-E-202506182255.gif

EWRC attempt maybe?

[Sciencerocks]

Hmm, what's with the huge convective blob to the SW?

https://i.postimg.cc/brqGH999/goes19-ir-05-E-202506182255.gif

EWRC attempt maybe?

Downslopping winds off land drawing in dry air. It is possible that it could be forcing outter eye walls bands that steal energy from the core.
Dry air as air sinks from off land....

Hurricane Kenna in 2002 did exactly this as it was within 12 hours of landfall.

If it is a weak and broad system then land can tighten it up by decreasing the area which creates convergence of the air parcels. Less area = more energy close to each other forcing the air to rise to its dew point. The thing about hurricanes of great strength hitting land with higher mountains is they will pull the air off them and that air will decrease and lose energy(or laten heat) and also dry up. (Increases area and the molecules don't hit each other as much and the column of air loses energy and sinks)This my friends creates outer bands and can start ewrc's and messes with the convergence that moves the air from the surface upwards that powers the storm.

[weeniepatrol]

Almost certainly robbed of Cat 4 designation

[Subtrop]

WTPZ65 KNHC 190540
TCUEP5

Hurricane Erick Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
1140 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...ERICK STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE...

Satellite imagery indicates Erick has strengthened into a category
four major hurricane with estimated maximum sustained winds of 145
mph (230 km/h). A special advisory will be issued around 0600 UTC
in lieu of an intermediate advisory.

Forecaster Kelly

[Subtrop]

WTPZ45 KNHC 190544
TCDEP5

Hurricane Erick Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

This is a special advisory mainly to update the intensity of Erick.
After an earlier eyewall replacement, satellite images indicate
very deep convection is wrapping around the eye of the hurricane.
Using a blend of objective ADT Dvorak estimates and SATCON values
from UW/CIMSS yields a current intensity estimate of 125 kt, which
is used for this advisory. Some additional strengthening is
possible during the next couple of hours, although the interaction
with land should halt the intensification process. Erick will
weaken rapidly after making landfall.

A slight leftward adjustment was made to the forecast track based
on the recent motion, which is now 305/8 kt.

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 06Z
intermediate advisory.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erick is now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and
devastating wind damage is likely where the core moves onshore.
Weather conditions are already deteriorating in the warning area,
and preparations to protect life and property should have been
completed.

2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses
the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Sciencerocks]

[bob rulz]

Been periodically checking the NHC website but first time popping onto the forum this season. The EPAC seems to be off to a crazy start this season and to have another rapidly deepening hurricane of this magnitude in this area is crazy and sad to see. I'm assuming Acapulco has still not recovered from Otis. Hopefully this hits along the sparsely populated portion of the coast to the east.

[cheezyWXguy]

Judging by satellite imagery Erick may be resuming strengthening in its final hours before landfall. That persistent blob to the southwest has dissipated, the cdo is cooling and the eye is starting to warm again.

[Ulf]

Honestly thought land interaction would cause Erick to weaken somewhat as it moves west along the coast like what happened with Pauline in 1997.

Guess it is intensification all the way to landfall.

[MarioProtVI]

This is at least 20 kt too high. Not sure how Erick’s current appearance translates to ADT T6.5.

[Kingarabian]

This is at least 20 kt too high. Not sure how Erick’s current appearance translates to ADT T6.5.

Easily supports T6.5. Current BD imagery supports that in accordance to the Dvorak Technique manual.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Almost certainly robbed of Cat 4 designation

Not quite

[weeniepatrol]

Almost certainly robbed of Cat 4 designation

Not quite

Thank god. Was scared they would hold at 110 kt given satellite

[kevin]

As far as I could see there aren't any big population centers at Erick's landfall point. However, smaller villages such as Corralero & Collantes will be directly impacted. While they only have a few thousand inhabitants, they are pretty much at sea-level and have never experienced a MH landfall. Besides perhaps hurricane Pauline in 1997 for some parts of the region. That hurricane also resulted in 230 - 500 deadly casualties despite landing in a similarly sparsely populated region. Let's hope this one falls apart fast and doesn't cause that much destruction.

[kevin]

Raw T# flips between 5.3 - 5.4 and 6.4 - 6.9 depending on whether the automated Dvorak gets the center right. Tbh a bit surprised that Dvorak likes this so much despite its very ragged appearance atm. I guess the very cold CDO (-75C) makes up for the poorly defined eye.

[kevin]

Accidental double post.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 97.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES



Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

Erick is about to make landfall along the southern coast of Mexico.
Its rapid strengthening episode has ended, likely due to the
interaction with land. The eye has become obscured on satellite
imagery, and the intensity is adjusted to 120 kt in agreement with
the latest objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Erick remains an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. However, rapid weakening
will occur after the center moves inland and the system moves over
the mountainous terrain of Mexico.

Smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles in the track, the motion
estimate, 310/8 kt, remains about the same as before. This general
motion, on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge, is likely to
continue until the system dissipates within the next day or two.
The official track forecast is just slightly west of the previous
one and close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erick is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and
devastating wind damage is likely near its core. Take shelter in
the interior portion of a well-built structure and remain sheltered
until after hazardous conditions pass.

2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest
Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides
are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain.

3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses
the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 97.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch