2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

GFS does have a rather messy CAG setup in the 10-12 day range, yes I know its the GFS, just thought it looked interesting lol

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has a crossover, but is at long range and nothing related to Erick.

[ChrisH-UK]

06z GFS has a crossover, but is at long range and nothing related to Erick.

https://i.imgur.com/zKSym7s.gif

With all the talk of Erick no one has noticed the potential low near Bermuda

[WeatherBoy2000]

06z GFS has a crossover, but is at long range and nothing related to Erick.

https://i.imgur.com/zKSym7s.gif

With all the talk of Erick no one has noticed the potential low near Bermuda

Due to how anomalously warm the subtropics are, I won't be surprised if that's where the first storm will form.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

06z GFS has a crossover, but is at long range and nothing related to Erick.

https://i.imgur.com/zKSym7s.gif

With all the talk of Erick no one has noticed the potential low near Bermuda

Due to how anomalously warm the subtropics are, I won't be surprised if that's where the first storm will form.

GFS has been on-and-off with that for a bit now. I'd say it's worth watching perhaps, especially if nothing appears in the tropics proper.

[wxman57]

It's pleasantly quiet across the Atlantic. Not even a significant wave in the MDR. The GFS has its typical Cat 3-4 in the Gulf at day 15, but that's it. I'm hoping we can make it through July with no storms. I went 13/6/3 in our in-office hurricane contest. Enjoying lots of days off.

[GCANE]

Looks like GFS is starting to trend for a weakening of the Sub-Tropical Ridge in the west Atlantic next week. May start to see some activity then.

[Stormlover70]

It's pleasantly quiet across the Atlantic. Not even a significant wave in the MDR. The GFS has its typical Cat 3-4 in the Gulf at day 15, but that's it. I'm hoping we can make it through July with no storms. I went 13/6/3 in our in-office hurricane contest. Enjoying lots of days off.

seems low. But I hope your right. Especially for Florida. We are closed.

[BobHarlem]

Nothing in the Atlantic still. Only bits of something east of Bermuda this weekend or off something short lived off Southeast coast in a week and half. Neither of which seem likely at all.

Erick in the EPAC seems like Otis all over again.

[StormPyrate]

Seems like we had a very back side of season last year no?
I mean there were some little dashes of activity, but the majority of bad storms were more towards the end. Or I am just imagining it

[jlauderdal]

It's pleasantly quiet across the Atlantic. Not even a significant wave in the MDR. The GFS has its typical Cat 3-4 in the Gulf at day 15, but that's it. I'm hoping we can make it through July with no storms. I went 13/6/3 in our in-office hurricane contest. Enjoying lots of days off.

seems low. But I hope your right. Especially for Florida. We are closed.

The ridge is in firm control, very dry on the SE Coast

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[Fancy1002]

Pretty large storm in the Western Pacific on the latest long range GFS run.

[Stratton23]

UKMET hints at a disturbance getting pulled into the NW caribbean from the pacific at day 7. UKMET only goes out 7 days, with the sub tropical ridge finally breaking down, i wouldnt be terribly surprised to see at least more moisture building in the NW caribbean, whether something tries to actually get going is a big what IF , but its being hinted at on prior GFS runs and the last couple UKMET runs

[Nimbus]

UKMET hints at a disturbance getting pulled into the NW caribbean from the pacific at day 7. UKMET only goes out 7 days, with the sub tropical ridge finally breaking down, i wouldnt be terribly surprised to see at least more moisture building in the NW caribbean, whether something tries to actually get going is a big what IF , but its being hinted at on prior GFS runs and the last couple UKMET runs

The Pacific side has been active, if some of that energy gets pulled east with the ridge breakdown all the models will be doing something with it. 7 days out the models should be getting the ridge evolution coming into forecast range.

[Stratton23]

UKMET kind of hinting at some sort of weak disturbance crossing the gulf and moving into the texas coast at day 5/6, actually has a pretty nice vort signature at the 500 mb level, models dont show development but they also have a weak disturbance moving into texas, maybe just worth keeping a casual eye on

[cycloneye]

Yes!!! Here come the AI EPS ensembles on July 1 with the 06z run. More new tools to predict.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FC ... IFS+ENS+v1

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1936085299735753036

[Stratton23]

With the sub tropical ridge really breaking down, it wouldn’t be impossible to see energy from the pacific getting pulled up into the gulf, we see that on days 10-11 in the 18z GFS in the western gulf, sub tropical ridge retreats to the atlantic, opening up the door for some energy to potentially try to lift north out of the pacific

[Nimbus]

With the sub tropical ridge really breaking down, it wouldn’t be impossible to see energy from the pacific getting pulled up into the gulf, we see that on days 10-11 in the 18z GFS in the western gulf, sub tropical ridge retreats to the atlantic, opening up the door for some energy to potentially try to lift north out of the pacific

Thunderstorms just north of Panama really firing up this morning, wouldn't take much for this to start drifting NNW.
But WXman57 is enjoying his vacation so its just fantasy GFS predictions.

[TomballEd]

Larry Cosgrove sees a tropical threat from the Caribbean into the Gulf in 6 to 10 days. He does not hype but no ECENs support and not much GEFS support either.

But if he sees it, it may not be likely but it is possible.

[Stratton23]

Yeah he mentioned hes concerned about texas or lousiana lol, but i see nothing on the models to support his claim in the 6-10 day window, i love cosgrove, but gotta wonder what hes seeing in the models