EPAC: ERICK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

[kevin]

Latest SHIPS consensus is very bullish, basically a more than 50% chance of this becoming a MH before landfall. Even a ~29% chance for a cat 4
And note that this is SHIPS from 06z so it doesn't even take into account the rapid organization that has taken place over the last 2 hours.

Current intensity = 55 kt (MPI = 154 kt)

20/12 -> 75 kt within 12 hours = 41.5%
25/24 -> 80 kt within 24 hours = 81.6%
30/24 -> 85 kt within 24 hours = 75.7%
35/24 -> 90 kt within 24 hours = 66.3%
40/24 -> 95 kt within 24 hours = 53.1%
45/36 -> 100 kt within 36 hours = 69.3%
55/48 -> 110 kt within 48 hours = 56.0%
65/72 -> 120 kt within 72 hours = 29.2%

[kevin]

To illustrate what I mean, here is the IR evolution over the last 60 minutes.

1 hour ago


Now

[kevin]

Raw T# now up to 4.1, supporting 67 kt. CI# is still at 3.8, but with (E)RI I usually tend to favor leaning towards raw T# for accuracy (as we saw with Milton where CI# was very much behind the true intensity during the start of the initial ramp-up phase). So I'd personally go for 65 kt at the next update, which is also supported by the CDO still cooling rapidly. It has fallen another 4C within the last 30 minutes and is now at -76C. That's a drop of 21C over the last 6 hours, which is even almost comparable to the -25C/6hr drop Patricia exprienced.

Also just a quick shout-out to Patricia which went from -60C to -72C in a 30-minute window. That's still probably the craziest CDO cooling I've ever seen, luckily Erick isn't that extreme.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

Satellite imagery indicates continued improvement in Erick’s
structure, with deep convection wrapping tightly within the
inner-core region. A recent AMSU microwave pass confirmed a
better-organized inner core, consistent with the observed
intensification trend. Although ASCAT data from several hours ago
sampled about 40-kt peak winds in the northeastern quadrant, Erick
has strengthened since that time. This is supported by the latest
subjective Dvorak classifications of T3.5 from TAFB and T4.5 from
SAB, while the objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS has increased to
near 60 kt and continues to rise. Based on a blend of these data,
the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory.

Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This relatively
slow forward motion has persisted for the past several hours,
consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north in
response to a mid- to upper-level trough progressing eastward across
the central United States. This general motion is expected to
continue through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday
along the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in
good agreement, and confidence in the overall track is relatively
high. That said, small track deviations could still lead to
significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and
coastal impacts occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The
official forecast aligns closely with the consensus of the HCCA and
TVCE aids and remains near the previous NHC track.

The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for
additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C,
low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several
dynamic regional models project Erick to reach major hurricane
strength before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI)
guidance continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid
strengthening within the next 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains
near the upper end of the guidance envelope but could still be
somewhat conservative, especially if the current trend of improved
structure continues today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast
of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect
for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero.

2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 13.3N 95.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

[cycloneye]

Not sure why this is still at 50 knots officially to be blunt with the low level structure and ADT estimates as well as SAB estimates supporting near or at hurricane strength.

Maybe they may be waiting for the first mission from AF later this morning to make the upgrade to hurricane?

[cycloneye]

Zoomed to the inner core.

[cycloneye]

Would be a big surprise if recon does not find a hurricane upper cat 1.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1935295936936427722

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
600 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...ERICK NOW A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[kevin]

Signs of a warm spot in the CDO are starting to appear on 1-minute IR imagery. Very curious as to what recon will find. Could be a medium cat 1, but who knows maybe it's already a category higher in a few hours.

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2025061812, , BEST, 0, 136N, 957W, 70, 987, HU

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep052025.dat

[Yellow Evan]

VHT rotating east (downshear). Eye should start clearing before too long.

[aspen]

This part of the Pacific Mexican coast has been ripe with over-achieving systems like Otis and John, so it’s not too surprising to see Erick starting to RI in its last 18-24 hours before landfall. I’m guessing we’ll see a Cat 3 landfall tomorrow, unfortunately.

[Yellow Evan]

[kevin]

Eye clearing out on IR and VIS.

[kevin]

The eye is still clearing so perhaps it'll still increase in size (even though the dvorak filter also seems to indicate a tiny eye), but this is not very reassuring . Luckily recon is almost there so we'll have definitive answers on Erick's current status.

[cheezyWXguy]

The eye is still clearing so perhaps it'll still increase in size (even though the dvorak filter also seems to indicate a tiny eye), but this is not very reassuring . Luckily recon is almost there so we'll have definitive answers on Erick's current status.

https://i.imgur.com/2GMi8qK.jpeg

Yeah I think IR is underrepresenting the size of the eye here due to overshooting tops in the eyewall. That said, even on visible the core is still quite small and suspect this will overperform the intensity forecast in the short term

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

12z SHIPS consensus has about 90% chance for a cat 3 peak before landfall and 75% for a cat 4.

Current intensity = 70 kt (MPI = 158 kt)

20/12 -> 90 kt (cat 2) within 12 hours = 78.7%
25/24 -> 95 kt (cat 2) within 24 hours = 91.4%
30/24 -> 100 kt (cat 3) within 24 hours = 89.8%
35/24 -> 105 kt (cat 3) within 24 hours = 87.4%
40/24 -> 110 kt (cat 3) within 24 hours = 78.0%
45/36 -> 115 kt (cat 4) within 36 hours = 75.0%
55/48 -> 125 kt (cat 4) within 48 hours = 34.9%
65/72 -> 135 kt (cat 4) within 72 hours = 10.5%