2025 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

NOAA's May forecast has ENSO-neutral conditions for the summer and remainder of 2025. The forecast favors ENSO-neutral, especially through the summer, with a near-50% chance during the fall. Uncertainty increases with increasing time horizons, with a near-46% ENSO-neutral chance and a 41% chance of La Niña during November 2025-January 2026 (El Niño chance only in 15 %)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[cycloneye]

Here is the ENSO Blog where they discuss about the future of ENSO for the next few months. Look at the meme.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 5/12/25 has niño 3.4 up to +0.1C. The subsurface continues to warm.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1921929515229393402

[Kingarabian]

Nino 3.4 will continue to fluctuate up and down until July when upwelling becomes favored.

[OURAGAN]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1922714860304924693



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1922715567951159578

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1923385451924295762

[Kingarabian]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1922714860304924693



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1922715567951159578

Speaking of the Indian Ocean, models show a strong WWB in that region.

[cycloneye]

CPC 5/19/25 weekly update has three of the four ENSO areas on the cold neutral side.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Ben Noll @BenNollWeather
Strong Pacific Ocean trade winds have caused the relative Niño 3.4 Index to dip into La Niña territory.

An Indian Ocean westerly wind burst is pushing warm waters eastward with the potential for a negative Indian Ocean Dipole in a few months — a pattern associated with La Niña.


 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1926284552525226391

[weeniepatrol]

The eternal -pdo continues. May fell to the lowest value of 2025 at -1.13.

[Kingarabian]

The eternal -pdo continues. May fell to the lowest value of 2025 at -1.13.

Waters warmed quite a bit east of Japan.

[cycloneye]

CPC June update= Neutral all the way thru the end of 2025. The headline from the update= ENSO-Neutral is likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (82% chance in June-August) and may continue into winter 2025-26, though confidence is lower (48% chance of Neutral and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[cycloneye]

Read the ENSO Blog where they elaborate on all the details of the june update.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... nso-update

[Dean_175]

The eternal -pdo continues.

Well they don’t call it the Pacific DECADAL oscillation for nothing.

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 at 0.0C on the CPC weekly update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[weeniepatrol]

The eternal -pdo continues.

Well they don’t call it the Pacific DECADAL oscillation for nothing.

Much like the AMO, there's usually still windows of opposite expression in the middle of broader phases. In other words it's not unusual to get a year of +PDO within a broader regime of -PDO. Easy to fact check this:

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

The last -PDO had many, many periods of positive values. PDO was positive from January to May 2010. Most of 2005. Even the very positive 2014-19 regime had negative values in 2016, 2017, and 2018. June 2018 (a 318 ace season) had a pdo of -0.5. It’s just surprising that we haven’t managed even a single positive monthly even within the context of a very strong negative regime.

The last positive monthly occurred in the 2010s. Just nuts.

[Kingarabian]

EPAC looking like an ice bath out there.

[Astromanía]

And ironically, it's the one that has been producing storms so far