EPAC: ERICK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2025061412, , BEST, 0, 101N, 866W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006, SPAWNINVEST, ep762025 to ep942025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep942025.dat

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

Might be a semi crossover system

[cycloneye]

The 12z global models package has CMC, ICON and GFS developing it but with different tracks. being GFS the more west and makes landfall near Manzanillo.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located just off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of the low, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while moving
westward or west-northwestward just offshore the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

This is a big change in terms of latitude as at 12z it was at 10.1N and at 18z is at 9.0N. This gives more room to intensify because is very far south.

EP, 94, 2025061418, , BEST, 0, 90N, 873W, 25, 1009, DB

[Hurricane2022]

Quite elongated LLC but it looks good right now

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located offshore of the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of the low, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while moving
westward to west-northwestward just offshore of the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2025061500, , BEST, 0, 93N, 880W, 25, 1009, DB

[Kingarabian]

Good banding so far. Looks ahead of schedule.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

1. Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate multiple surface
circulations associated with a tropical wave located offshore of the
Pacific coast of Costa Rica. The system continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of El
Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and adjacent offshore
waters. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward just
offshore of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras,
Nicaragua, Guatemala, Costa Rica and adjacent offshore waters.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
this week while moving westward to west-northwestward just offshore
of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2025061512, , BEST, 0, 104N, 884W, 25, 1009, DB

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/ViridWx/status/1934236665632985103

[WeatherBoy2000]

Where 94E makes landfall may play a role in any chance of Atlantic side (BOC) development. Right now it looks like it's going to be too far west, but if it tracks further east then this possibility increases.

[Yellow Evan]

This is further along convectively than global guidance has indicated and they’re only slowly correcting. An upper trough over northern Mexico and an upper level low around 115E will favor the development of a large upper level anticyclone over 94E in an environment of almost zero wind shear. Mid-level ridging to its east will allow for a slow north to northwest track towards southern Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms offshore Central America. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of this week while moving westward to west-northwestward just
offshore of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[Ntxw]

Definitely worth watching, given the environment mentioned by Yellow Evan above. Might be strengthening right up till landfall and sneak up on us with impacts.

[cycloneye]

Maybe it does a RI? What do the members think about this?