EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

The LLC seems to be tightening up on visible imagery. Still needs another 12-24 hours

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025

...DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS TO COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 100.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located south of Mexico, that the National Hurricane Center has been
monitoring have increased and are showing signs of organization.
While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images
near the northeast edge of ongoing convection, the low-level
circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the system is
expected to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow, and it is
possible that it will bring tropical storm conditions to land areas
within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the National Hurricane
Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this
disturbance.

The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is
still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is
west-northwestward at about 6 kt. A northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is anticipated during the next few days as
the system moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, being
steered by a mid-level ridge. Model guidance is in fairly good
agreement with the overall track evolution, although minor track
shifts may cause greater impacts to the coast of Mexico. The NHC
forecast lies near the simple consensus aids. Since the disturbance
currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the
track forecast uncertainty is typically larger in these situations,
and future track adjustments may be required.

The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop
overnight or tomorrow. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, with
warm sea surface temperatures and abundant moisture. However, the
system will be dealing with some easterly to northeasterly wind
shear. The NHC forecast shows steady strengthening over the next few
days, although there are some guidance aids such as HCCA and the
hurricane regional models that lie above the current NHC forecast.
Given some uncertainty in how quickly the system consolidates and
the limiting wind shear, the NHC forecast lies near the simple
intensity consensus aids. Beyond day 4, environmental conditions
will become hostile which should lead to weakening, and the system
should struggle to produce convection moving into cooler SSTs and a
more stable air mass. The current NHC forecast has the system
becoming a remnant low at that time, and calls for dissipation by
day 5.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
for portions of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 11.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
600 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 100.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 100.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system
is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue
strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

[cycloneye]

EP, 04, 2025061300, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1005W, 30, 1006, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025

Satellite images show the disturbance is still broad with little
improvement in organization this evening. There is minimal
convective banding, and most of the thunderstorm activity is
displaced well away from the cloud system center. The broad low
remains a 30-kt disturbance for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 6 kt, though
it is uncertain due to the lack of a well-defined center. The
near-term motion could be erratic and slightly more northward
overnight while the disturbance organizes and forms a center. But,
the track guidance agrees that as the system organizes and deepens,
it will resume a northwestward motion and move parallel to the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Little change is shown in the updated NHC
forecast, which remains near the simple and corrected consensus
aids. However, larger changes could be required in future issuances
depending on where and when a center eventually forms.

The broad structure does not suggest strengthening will occur
quickly in the near term. Once the system consolidates, the warm sea
surface temperatures and moist environment appear generally
favorable for intensification. Although the regional models show the
system reaching hurricane status, moderate (15-20 kt) easterly shear
shown by the global models for the next several days could make it
difficult for that much strengthening to occur. For now, the NHC
intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a strong tropical
storm, in line with the simple intensity consensus. Cooler waters
and drier mid-level air will lead to weakening during the latter
half of the forecast period, and the system is forecast to dissipate
by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán,
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the
disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with the
convective banding increasing and the circulation becoming better
defined. However, the system does not yet have either enough
organized convection or a sufficiently well-defined circulation to
be considered a tropical cyclone. The scatterometer data showed
25-30 kt winds about 120 n mi south and southeast of the center, so
the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 335/8 kt. Satellite
imagery shows that the depression is currently south of a mid- to
upper-level trough over Texas and northern Mexico and southeast of
a mid- to upper-level ridge over Baja California and the adjacent
Pacific. The dynamical models forecast that the trough will weaken
and move eastward during the next 2-3 days, with the ridge building
eastward to the north of the system. This evolution should cause
the disturbance to turn northwestward later today, followed by a
west-northwestward and westward motion later in the forecast period.
The forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and
the new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and
just a little north of the previous track. There is a possibility
of erratic motion today as the system gets better organized, and
this may affect how close the system will come to the coast of
Mexico.

The forecast track keeps the system over warm sea surface
temperatures for the next 36-48 h. However, a combination of the
broad structure and moderate easterly vertical wind shear is likely
to slow the development. The new intensity guidance is a little
lower than for the previous forecast, and the forecast peak
intensity of 60 kt is near the high end of the guidance envelope.
After 48 h, cooler waters and drier mid-level air will lead to
steady weakening, and the system is forecast to dissipate
by 120 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán,
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 12.8N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
600 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 101.3W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[cycloneye]

The next step is TD and looks like it will be at next advisory.

EP, 04, 2025061312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1013W, 30, 1005, TD

[cycloneye]

The meso floater.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 101.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, and a
Tropical Storm Watch north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes.





Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

Latest satellite imagery depicts that the disturbance south of
Mexico has continued to become better organized this morning.
First-light visible imagery shows that the system has developed a
well-defined low-level center, and infrared imagery shows a large
burst of organized deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80 C.
Thus, the disturbance now meets the requirements to be classified a
tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
remain around 30 kt with a T2.0 from TAFB. Thus, the intensity is
held at 30 kt, and the system is now Tropical Depression Four-E.

The initial motion remains uncertain given the recent formation of a
well-defined low-level center, but it is estimated at 335/9 kt. A
mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen and build over Mexico
later today, which will cause a more northwestward motion this
afternoon and evening, followed by a west-northwestward motion later
this weekend. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the
latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one, which lies near
the simple consensus aids. Along the forecast track, the system
will parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico, remaining offshore.

As the depression continues to become better organized, steady
strengthening is forecast over the next 36-48 h, with the system
over warm sea surface temperatures. However, there is some moderate
easterly vertical wind shear that the system will have to deal with.
As the system took a little longer to consolidate, the latest NHC
intensity forecast is slightly lower, with a peak intensity of 55
kt, which lies near the simple consensus. However, some of the
regional hurricane models continue to show a higher peak. Beyond 48
h, the system will cross into a drier, more stable airmass and over
cooler SSTs which will lead to steady weakening. Global models show
the system struggling to produce convection by 72 h, becoming a
remnant low, and then dissipating by 120 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Depression Four-E may bring locally
heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and
Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. The Tropical Depression is forecast to be at tropical storm
strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 13.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
1200 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DALILA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 101.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1933583446154358797

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...DALILA BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 102.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

Satellite images and recent ASCAT data show that Dalila is a large
tropical storm with its 34-kt wind radii spread out over a broad
area, especially east of the center. The ASCAT passes showed
tropical-storm-force winds occurring very near the coast of southern
Mexico, which are likely aided by the local terrain. The initial
intensity of the storm remains 35 kt based on the aforementioned
ASCAT data and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Dalila is the second
earliest fourth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin since
records began in 1949, behind 1956.

Dalila likely will strengthen during the next day or so while it
remains over warm waters and in a low to moderate wind shear
environment. However, rapid intensification is not expected given
the large size of the storm's wind field and the lack of an inner
core. The opportunity for strengthening should end by late Saturday
when Dalila is expected to cross the 26 C SST isotherm. Thereafter,
a combination of cool waters and stable air should cause rapid
weakening, and Dalila is now forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone by late Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.

The storm is still moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. A
gradual turn to the northwest and then the west is expected over the
next few days as Dalila moves on the south side of a building
mid-level ridge. There is high confidence that the center of the
system should stay off the coast of Mexico, but the northern extent
of the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to brush the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The NHC track
forecast is a touch north of the previous one and near the middle of
the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila could bring locally
heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and
Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 14.8N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 18.5N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1800Z 18.5N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
600 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...DALILA BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Looks like the ridge to the north of the storm is building causing the left turn and that is good for the SW coast of Mexico.

EP, 04, 2025061400, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1027W, 35, 1001, TS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 103.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes



Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

The satellite presentation of Dalila has improved a bit this
evening, with the latest images showing an increase in deep
convection around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 knots, while
the objective estimates ranged from 32 to 40 knots. Based on a blend
of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 knots for
this advisory.

Dalila is now heading toward the northwest, or 315/10 knots. This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as
the system moves along the southern periphery of a building
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night and Sunday,
as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered
by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast
to continue through dissipation on Tuesday, and this may be generous
as Dalila may not survive that long. The latest track forecast has
been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, in line with
the latest consensus model trends.

There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain
over warm water and within light to moderate easterly shear for
around 24 hours. The forecast calls for some strengthening during
this time, but the peak intensity has been nudged slightly lower to
better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beyond 36
hours, the system will move over much cooler water, and steady
weakening is forecast with Dalila expected to become a post-tropical
remnant low by 60 hours, and possibly sooner than that. The latest
intensity forecast is generally on the high end of the intensity
guidance through 36 hours, then is roughly in the middle of the pack
through storm dissipation.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.2N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

Dalila has become better organized early this morning, with the
latest satellite images showing well defined convective banding
around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 knots and T3.0/45 knots.
Objective estimates ranged from 34 to 43 knots, while a recent ASCAT
pass showed several wind barbs close to 40 kt. Based on a blend of
these data and taking into account the potential for some
under-sampling in ASCAT, the initial intensity for this advisory has
been increased to 45 knots.

Dalila is heading toward the northwest, or 305/10 knots. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected later today as the system
moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward
the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler
water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind
flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through
dissipation Monday night, and this may be generous as Dalila may not
survive that long. The track forecast lies nearly on top of the
previous track and is in close agreement with the latest consensus
guidance.

There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain
over warm water and light to moderate effective easterly shear
today. The forecast calls for some strengthening today, and the peak
intensity was nudged slightly higher to better align with the latest
intensity model trends. Beginning tonight the system will cross the
26C isotherm and over progressively cooler water, and this is
expected to begin the weakening phase with Dalila forecast to become
a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and possibly sooner than
that. The latest intensity forecast close to the middle of the
intensity guidance envelope through the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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Forecaster Jelsema/Beven