WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

A. 01W (NONAME)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 16.1N

D. 113.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES GREATER 1.25 DEGREE FM
LARGE COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[cycloneye]

Finnally, WPAC has it's first named storm of 2025. JMA upgrades it.

T2501(Wutip)
Issued at 2025/06/11 01:20 UTC
Analysis at 06/11 00 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°10′ (16.2°)
E113°55′ (113.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area SW440 km (240 NM)
NE330 km (180 NM

https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/ ... on&lang=en

[cycloneye]

JMA:

NAME TS 2501 WUTIP (2501)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 16.8N 111.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

[cycloneye]

JTWC still has no upgrade to TS with 990 mbs.

01W WUTIP 250611 1200 16.5N 111.5E WPAC 30 990

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TS.

01W WUTIP 250611 1800 16.3N 110.9E WPAC 40 993

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL STORM 01W (WUTIP)

B. 11/2030Z

C. 17.00N

D. 110.83E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
10NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 01W IF FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AS IT PROGRESSES OVER THE SHALLOW, BUT
VERY WARM (30-31 C) WATERS SOUTH OF HAINAN ISLAND, IT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING 55 KTS AROUND TAU 24. AFTER THE
SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, IT IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT OVER THE
HAINAN ISLAND, AND WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN, BEGIN
WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL YET AGAIN TAP INTO A SUPPLY
OF WARM WATER WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
TONKIN, ALLOWING FOR SOME POTENTIAL SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION.
SHORTLY AFTER HOWEVER, THE TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH MAINLAND
CHINA WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY, OR
BEFORE TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL 72 HOURS, AS INDICATED BY THE CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 55 NM AT TAU 36, OPENING UP TO 110 NM AT TAU 72. SHORT
TERM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS GOOD AT 30 NM, BUT IT INCREASES TO
160 NM BY TAU 72. FOR THE LONG TERM TRACK GUIDANCE, UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, DUE TO INCREASING ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
DRIVEN BY DIFFERENT MODEL INTERPRETATION OF POTENTIAL BAROCLINIC
FORCING, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRANSITS OVER LAND. TOWARD THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE, HOWEVER SOME INTENSITY AIDS (GFS AND HAFS) INDICATE
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEYOND OR AROUND TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM IS CUT OFF THE
WARM WATER SUPPLY AND SHALLOWS OUT.

[cycloneye]

03z advisory.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 01W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS EAST. AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVELS OVER THE SHALLOW BUT VERY WARM WATERS (30-31 C) SOUTH OF
HAINAN ISLAND, IT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, REACHING AN ESTIMATED
PEAK OF 50-55 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND
THE RIDGE AXIS AND MAKES THE INITIAL LANDFALL OVER THE HAINAN ISLAND,
INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STORM. AFTER
CROSSING THE ISLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-ENTER WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
OF TONKIN, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER,
SHORTLY THEREAFTER, TS 01W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AGAIN DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN OF MAINLAND CHINA AND IS FORECAST TO FULLY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.

[cycloneye]

09z advisory.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 BEFORE BEGINNING TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A NORTHWARD
TURN. AN INITIAL LANDFALL, JUST AFTER TAU 12, IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAINAN. NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND TRACK TOWARD THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA. 01W IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR TAU
48 AND CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FURTHER INLAND THROUGH
TAU 72 AS THE VORTEX DISSIPATES NORTH OF HONG KONG. 01W IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO
THE MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 24,
TERRAIN INTERACTION WITH HAINAN WILL WEAKEN THE VORTEX AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA. AFTER TAU 48, SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN
INTERACTION WITH MAINLAND CHINA WILL CAUSE 01W TO QUICKLY WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MERE 35 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AND 50 NM
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. AT TAU 72, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
INCREASES TO 230 NM DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE VORTEX AND RAPID
DISSIPATION. OVERALL, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, WITH MODELS RANGING FROM 40-50 KTS
THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING AFTERWARD. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS A
RESULT.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

15:00 UTC:

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 BEFORE BEGINNING TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND COMMENCING A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST WHEN
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NOW HAS THE VORTEX CENTER
PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF HAINAN FROM TAU 12 TO 24. AFTER TAU 24,
01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND HEAD TOWARD THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MAINLAND CHINA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48.
REGARDING INTENSITY, 01W IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO 55
KTS AT TAU 12 IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 12, LAND INTERACTION WITH WESTERN COAST OF HAINAN WILL
DISRUPT THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL, 01W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN
INTERACTION. THE VORTEX IS THEN FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY
TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 70 NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC TRACKER IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, DEPICTING THE VORTEX
JUST OFF THE COAST AT TAU 48, WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE
REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS HIGHER,
AT AROUND 100 NM. AFTER TAU 48, ALONG TRACK SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE VERY SHALLOW AND WEAK VORTEX SIGNATURE AS
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. OVERALL, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS SUGGESTING WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Maybe a Typhoon at landfall?

[cycloneye]

09z.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 01W IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. LANDFALL IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR JUST WEST OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA NEAR TAU 24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRAVELS FURTHER INLAND. REGARDING
INTENSITY, 01W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY, OR SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE GULF OF TONKIN. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH TAU 24. AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL,
INCREASING TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE VORTEX TO BEGIN
WEAKENING. 01W WILL THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER MAINLAND CHINA WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST TO
OCCUR AROUND TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24, WHEN THE
SYSTEM IS JUST OFF THE COAST. AT TAU 48, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES TO AROUND 160 NM AS THE VORTEX SHALLOWS AND
ACCELERATES NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC IS THE SLOWEST
TRACKER WHILE ECMWF AND NAVGEM ARE THE FASTEST. OVERALL, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT, WITH HAFS-A AND GFS
SUGGESTING WEAKENING FROM TAU 0 WHILE HWRF AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL
MODELS SUGGEST A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. ALL MODELS THEN
AGREE ON WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSER TO HWRF THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU
48 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1933682328863187415

[sasha_B]

Cloud-top temperatures on LWIR & automated Dvorak estimates aren't impressive but there's an eye-like feature in the first visible imagery after sunrise, and as the tweeet Sciencerocks shared points out, Wutip has got a little time to intensify yet.

[cycloneye]

There it is. JTWC upgrades to Typhoon but JMA stays at Severe Tropical Storm.

01W WUTIP 250614 0000 20.3N 109.1E WPAC 65 979

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1933730067470758192