2025 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

There is a weak spin just south of 10N.

[Kingarabian]

So far ACE is above average but nothing to crazy. Let's see if the next system can actually become something decent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barbara and Tropical Storm Cosme, both located in the eastern
Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend
while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1932504099930751152

[cycloneye]

They keep comming.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cosme, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Barbara, both located in the eastern Pacific basin off the
coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form late this week or over the weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by late this weekend or early
next week near the coast of Central America. Gradual development is
possible thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward near the
coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cosme, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend
or early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly

[cycloneye]

Invest 93E is up.

[cycloneye]

The basin at MDR as a whole in terms of the warm waters is very limited.

[StormWeather]

Why is the Eastern Pacific spamming storms like a conga train?

[Kingarabian]

Why is the Eastern Pacific spamming storms like a conga train?

Extended period of rising motion in the far eastern Pacific. Coupled with a steering pattern that's keeping the disturbances off of Mexico and over the warmest waters in the basin.

[StormWeather]

Why is the Eastern Pacific spamming storms like a conga train?

Extended period of rising motion in the far eastern Pacific. Coupled with a steering pattern that's keeping the disturbances off of Mexico and over the warmest waters in the basin.

So pretty much an MJO standing wave of sorts?

[Kingarabian]

Why is the Eastern Pacific spamming storms like a conga train?

Extended period of rising motion in the far eastern Pacific. Coupled with a steering pattern that's keeping the disturbances off of Mexico and over the warmest waters in the basin.

So pretty much an MJO standing wave of sorts?

Its been there consistently for more than 45 days. I would call it a rising air branch not related to the MJO.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

We'll see how the ensembles look for the most recent AOI. It lost some support from the global models today.

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

The scoreboard is now with TS Dalila EPAC=4 / NATL=0.

[Astromanía]

What is the record for June activity on Epac? 5 named storms?