Texas Summer 2025

[wxman22]

[snownado]

Either a PDS Severe Watch or Tornado Watch is coming shortly for parts of North / NW Texas...

[wxman22]

A PDS watch is probably incoming...

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of southwestern and north-central
Texas...southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 082017Z - 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail/tornado threat to increase through the
afternoon before a more significant wind threat emerges.

DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles as of this hour, with at least one
tornado reported in Cimarron/Dallam counties. Additional development
is ongoing west of Amarillo. It is likely some mix of supercell
clusters will advance south and eastward through time, with
potential for additional development to occur ahead of the dryline
in New Mexico.

Low-level shear improves with southward extent into Lubbock where
surface winds are backed southeasterly improving low-level curvature
of hodographs and streamwise vorticity. It is likely that as storms
develop and move southward, the tornado threat will increase through
time even with the shifting storm mode.

A sharp gradient of extreme MLCAPE exists along the Red River near
the Texas/Oklahoma border into north-central Texas amid steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. As upscale growth increases, the potential
will rapidly increase for destructive winds (80-100 mph). A Tornado
or PDS Severe Watch is likely needed to cover this potential.

[Ntxw]

Now it's looking like a midnight arrival in my area which is basically Denton.

Will that have any effect on the less wind extent since Peak heating will have gone?

I'm no expert but I was just checking the hrrr 18z.

Might be similar to what occurred in March. This will be a very fast moving line of storms out of NW flow, fueled by the daytime and fade out overnight.

I don't see this one just fading away overnight.

Most of the guidance has it crossing NTX tonight and by morning it's all gone by 12z. So it's definitely daytime driven today and then dynamics tonight until outflow outruns it.

[snownado]

Might be similar to what occurred in March. This will be a very fast moving line of storms out of NW flow, fueled by the daytime and fade out overnight.

I don't see this one just fading away overnight.

Most of the guidance has it crossing NTX tonight and by morning it's all gone by 12z.

Ah ok, you meant storm progression/duration. I thought you were referring to storm intensity.

My mistake.

[wxman22]

PDS Severe Watch issued, Gust to 105mph possible.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
Western North Texas and Low Rolling Plains

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105
mph likely
Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail
events to 5 inches in diameter possible
A few tornadoes likely

SUMMARY...Increasing intense severe storm development is expected
through late afternoon into evening. This will include initial
supercells capable of very large hail with a tornado risk, but a
prominent potential for widespread damaging winds should evolve this
evening.

[snownado]

PDS Severe Watch issued, Gust to 105mph possible.

https://i.ibb.co/B24PWhdV/Gs8yld5-WYAEEtu-Q.jpg

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
Western North Texas and Low Rolling Plains

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105
mph likely
Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail
events to 5 inches in diameter possible
A few tornadoes likely

SUMMARY...Increasing intense severe storm development is expected
through late afternoon into evening. This will include initial
supercells capable of very large hail with a tornado risk, but a
prominent potential for widespread damaging winds should evolve this
evening.

https://i.ibb.co/9HfjK8v8/caknvas.png

Not sure I've ever see a watch for winds up to 105 MPH before...

[rwfromkansas]

MCS maintenance on the mesoanalysis implies to me it could last well beyond DFW.

[snownado]

MCS maintenance on the mesoanalysis implies to me it could last well beyond DFW.

So does 0-3km CAPE, with the maxima being to the east over the Piney Woods.

[snownado]

Tornado Warning
TXC119-277-082145-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0047.250608T2111Z-250608T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
411 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Delta County in north central Texas...
Southwestern Lamar County in north central Texas...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 410 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Roxton, or 16 miles southwest of Paris, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Big Creek Lake around 420 PM CDT.
Cooper around 425 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Gadston and Ben Franklin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 9583 3356 9576 3346 9554 3334 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 321DEG 13KT 3349 9574

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

Stalley

[snownado]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC363-082230-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0371.250608T2121Z-250608T2230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
421 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Palo Pinto County in north central Texas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 421 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Possum Kingdom Lake, or 22 miles northeast of Ranger, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
Lake Palo Pinto around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Brazos,
Lone Camp, Santo, and New Salem.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 378 and 389.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 9806 3251 9807 3251 9809 3267 9857
3286 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 287DEG 16KT 3274 9846

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Stalley

[bubba hotep]

They should probably go ahead and drop watch for North Texas. Looks there could be multiple front-running supercells this evening.

[snownado]

They should probably go ahead and drop watch for North Texas. Looks there could be multiple front-running supercells this evening.

I was just going to say, the showers moving east out of Jack County bear watching. They could potentially intensify to severe t'storms like the cells in Palo Pinto County, which would pose a problem for DFW.

[wxman22]

Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas into western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 082137Z - 082230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase along a baroclinic
boundary over the next few hours. Severe wind/hail and perhaps a
tornado will occur with the stronger storms.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have become established
along a broad, diffuse baroclinic boundary in northeast TX into
western LA, with initiation evident west of the DFW Metroplex. MRMS
mosaic radar data depicts 50 dBZ echoes reaching over 50 kft, with
MESH cores exceeding 1 inch in diameter with storms closer to the
TX/LA border. MLCAPE is exceeding 4500 J/kg in proximity to these
storms, with modest northwesterly mid-level flow contributing to 45
kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis. Given relatively
weak MLCINH, these storms may persist for at least a few hours
despite overall weak deep-layer ascent. Recent FWD VAD shows
modestly elongated hodographs, so supercells should remain the
predominant mode with the more isolated storms. Severe wind and hail
may accompany these storms, and 75+ mph gusts and 3+ inch diameter
hail is possible, along with a tornado.

Although a relatively greater severe threat should materialize this
evening, a shorter-term but appreciable threat does exist with the
ongoing storms, which will necessitate a WW issuance soon.

[funster]

A watch before the main watch? That won't confuse anyone.

[cstrunk]

Pretty good downpours this afternoon in ETX. Cooled the air to a chilly 69F. I'm wondering if this did enough to lower the overnight threat for us, or if it will wash out and get replaced by warm moist air surging from the south.

[HockeyTx82]

That storm iver Decatur fell apart. Strange, I was expecting a storm my way and then one just north and east of Denton popped up.

I was watching the back of that storm just exploding with clouds going straight up like boiling pasta foam.

[HockeyTx82]

Okay so we get a sever thunderstorm watch for High Hail threat until 9:00 and then we get a high wind threat later on I guess?

Double bonus........

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0397.html

[snownado]

Storms have exploded over Collin and Denton County with a SE drift.

The ones in Denton might even clip me.

The clouds are amazing too. It's so nice to see daytime sevrre t'storms for a change.

[bubba hotep]

Storm to the north of Stephenville, TX, has gone through multiple mergers and now has a healthy hail core. That could be trouble in a few minutes.