Texas Summer 2025

[Brent]

This is the first day we haven't had predawn storms in days .

Gonna probably be the hottest day of the year so far. Lots of fuel for storms

[wxman22]

The CAMS are locked in.

[wxman22]

[snownado]

In addition to the squall line itself, CAMs have hinted at some discrete supercells ahead of it impacting the northern DFW suburbs

That will have to be watched closely as well.

[snownado]

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/19317445665 ... EYu-g&s=19

[snownado]

Flood Watch has just been issued for the OK counties along the Red River back through the Wichita Falls area.

[snownado]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1196.html

[rwfromkansas]

Moderate risk expanded even more south.

I usually love severe weather. Today I’m anxious.

[bubba hotep]

16z HRRR has wind gusts pushing 100 mph across DFW. The large hail/tornado threat will max NW of DFW, and then things will transition to a high wind threat across DFW. Maybe things stay multicellular longer, which would reduce the widespread high wind threat, but extend the large hail threat.

[rwfromkansas]

Just got a new roof. Ugh.

It’s rated for over 100mph but will see. I’m sure fences will go etc.

[wxman22]

Yikes, the CAMS are showing some extreme wind gust stretching from the Red River Valley and all of DFW. The Arklatex may be in play also for some very strong winds. The SPC is now mentioning the word Derecho...

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains
today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North
Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind
gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma...
A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional
outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail
and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging
winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and
overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern
Oklahoma.

Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the
central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward
across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air
mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near
dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir
of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest
Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term
details.

Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late
afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a
complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong
deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather
weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward
across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas,
likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs.

The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the
evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system
organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern
Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging
wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as
the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight.

[WacoWx]

I got the garage cleaned out for the second car, and the closet cleaned out for sheltering. I really hope I’m overdoing it.

[TomballEd]

Got my Proton VPN. The significant win/hail risk for my family in the Metroplex (HEB) got me moving. 80-something Euros for 2 years and I can put it on multiple devices.

I looked at a 3 km NAM sounding with 50 knots surface and 85 knots at 900 mb earlier. Latest HRRR suggests the hail threat goes from near softballs to below an inch and a quarter by the actual metro. I hope

[HockeyTx82]

So is this a wall of death and destruction or a line of storms, some of which will have high end extremes?

I'm making plans, but the hype has got my attention.

Just trying to calm my fears that this might be it........

[snownado]

FWD presents a possible fly in the ointment with respect to high-end severe potential. It wouldn't be a DFW severe weather setup if there wasn't one.

Take it for what it's worth...

The biggest
change to this afternoon forecast package is that some of the
latest CAM guidance is now highlighting a low potential for the
clusters currently located near Childress to grow upscale and blow
through the region this afternoon. This presents us with two
scenarios:

Scenario 1 we already have discussed ad-nauseam

Scenario 2 is that the the clusters that are currently to our
west expand and inhibit significant strengthening of the late
evening activity. This is the less likely scenario, but if it
does occur we would see a lesser swath of intense winds across
North Texas. We`ll continue to monitor this potential as there is
currently an expanding coverage of storms to the northwest of
Wichita Falls.

[wxman22]

First watch of the day issued in the Panhandle.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma
Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to steadily develop and
increase this afternoon, initially across the Oklahoma Panhandle and
northern Texas Panhandle. Intense supercells capable of very large
hail are expected, with the damaging wind and possibly the tornado
potential possibly increasing toward evening.

[HockeyTx82]

Now it's looking like a midnight arrival in my area which is basically Denton.

Will that have any effect on the less wind extent since Peak heating will have gone?

I'm no expert but I was just checking the hrrr 18z.

[Ntxw]

Now it's looking like a midnight arrival in my area which is basically Denton.

Will that have any effect on the less wind extent since Peak heating will have gone?

I'm no expert but I was just checking the hrrr 18z.

Might be similar to what occurred in March. This will be a very fast moving line of storms out of NW flow, fueled by the daytime and fade out overnight.

[snownado]

Now it's looking like a midnight arrival in my area which is basically Denton.

Will that have any effect on the less wind extent since Peak heating will have gone?

I'm no expert but I was just checking the hrrr 18z.

Might be similar to what occurred in March. This will be a very fast moving line of storms out of NW flow, fueled by the daytime and fade out overnight.

I don't see this one just fading away overnight.

[snownado]

https://x.com/NWSFortWorth/status/19317 ... tb3gQ&s=19