EPAC: BARBARA - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TXPZ24 KNES 071824
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 14.2N

D. 99.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.5. MET=1.0. PT=1.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

EP, 92, 2025060718, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1002W, 30, 1004, DB

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT.

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 150 miles south of the southern coast of Mexico have
continued to become more organized this afternoon. Although it is
unclear whether the system has a well-defined circulation, further
development is anticipated, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday. The system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at around 15 mph tonight, then continue
in that general direction through early next week. Locally heavy
rains are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there should
monitor the progress of this system. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Classifiable.

[cycloneye]

Not yet a TC according to this.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 08/0000Z

C. 15.2N

D. 101.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0. THE PT
IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

And this.

EP, 92, 2025060800, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1010W, 30, 1004, DB

[Kingarabian]

Not yet a TC according to this.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 08/0000Z

C. 15.2N

D. 101.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0. THE PT
IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

And this.

EP, 92, 2025060800, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1010W, 30, 1004, DB

Dvorak is subjective but T1.5 is enough for a TD.

[Kingarabian]

Strong feeder band west of what could be a developing CDO.

[Yellow Evan]

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 150 miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico
have become better organized this evening. Recent satellite-derived
wind data indicate that the circulation has become better defined,
and the system is already producing gale-force winds. If these
trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical storm
later tonight. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at
around 10 mph during the next few days. Locally heavy rains are
possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico in
association with this system, and interests there should monitor its
progress. For more information on this system, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Latest ASCAT confirms tropical storm. I’d be shocked if they didn’t upgrade.

[Yellow Evan]

As for the future, this has 36 hours ish before easterly flow from strong ridging to its north at the mid levels shear this apart. T3.5-T4.0 is probably a reasonable expectation.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
300 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

...TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to
become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
300 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located offshore of
southwestern Mexico. A small, persistent area of deep convection has
been observed in satellite images tonight, and recent scatterometer
data confirm this has led to the formation of a well-defined, closed
low-level circulation. Therefore, the NHC is starting advisories on
Tropical Storm Barbara with an initial intensity of 40 kt based on
the earlier scatterometer winds.

Barbara is currently within a moist and relatively low shear
environment over warm waters. So, strengthening is expected during
the next day or so, and this could occur quickly given recent
satellite trends and the small size of the storm. The official NHC
forecast shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 24 h, which is
supported by HAFS-A/B and the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA). The
window for strengthening is brief, as Barbara is forecast to move
over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment by 48 h.
This should disrupt the convective structure of the storm and result
in weakening. By day 5, the remnant low of Barbara is forecast to
either dissipate or become absorbed by the circulation of EP91.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side
of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next
couple of days. For this time period, the NHC forecast generally
lies near or between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given
the forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds
are not expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By
Tuesday, the track forecast becomes more complicated given the
potential for binary interaction between Barbara and another
disturbance (EP91) with a high chance of formation. Because of this,
the long-range track forecast could be subject to larger future
adjustments depending on the evolution of EP91.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 17.0N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 18.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 19.1N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 19.8N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Doing RI?

[cycloneye]

Up to 50kt.

EP, 02, 2025060812, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1027W, 50, 996, TS

[Kingarabian]

Could easily end up as a hurricane with convection that deep.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Healthy structure. Definitely has the look of an intensifying system. Hurricane status might not be too far off.

[Yellow Evan]

Doing the TCG —> hurricane speedrun.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Some mid shear currently slowing it down.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

Barbara continues to become better organized this morning with deep
convection bursting near the low-level center. Earlier AMSR2
microwave imagery depicts improved curved banding with an inner core
in the formative stage. This structure has led to an improved
satellite depiction and intensification. Subjective and objective
intensity estimates have continued to increase this morning, using a
blend of these estimates the intensity is set to 50 kt for this
advisory.

The system is currently within a favorable environment with warm sea
surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Further
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and this could
occur rather quickly given the small inner core of Barbara. The
latest NHC intensity forecast has increased slightly form the
previous one and shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 12 hrs.
However, there are some intensity aids that are a little higher than
the NHC forecast, including some explicitly forecasting Rapid
Intensification (RI). RI is possible, and this is something we will
have to monitor over the succeeding forecasts. After 24-36 hrs, the
system will be moving over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level
environment. These factors will cause the system to weaken and
eventually struggle to produce convection. Global model infrared
simulated satellite images depicts the system losing convection by
72 h. By day 4, the system should degenerate into a remnant low, and
dissipate by day 5 as it interacts with the circulation of TD
Three-E.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side
of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next
couple of days. The NHC forecast is near the previous one and
lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given the
forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds are not
expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the
track forecast becomes more complicated given the potential for
binary interaction between Barbara and TD Three-E. Because of this,
the long-range track forecast could be subject to large future
adjustments depending on the evolution of TD Three-E.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.7N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

Looks like some easterly shear affecting it.