EPAC: COSME - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2025060612, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1050W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, ep742025 to ep912025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep912025.dat

[cycloneye]

Does not have a lot of convection but it has a well defined circulation. Models keep it well away from land.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Looking increasingly likely this will beat out the disturbance to its east to Barbara. That other one may not even reach TS intensity before interacting with 91E if the NHC and most of the guidance is to be believed.

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (91E):
A low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico is gradually becoming better defined, but the
associated showers and thunderstorms are limited. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looking increasingly likely this will beat out the disturbance to its east to Barbara. That other one may not even reach TS intensity before interacting with 91E if the NHC and most of the guidance is to be believed.

The other one is now 92E and has a lot more convection than 91E but let's see what transpires in the next few hours. Something is for sure, this basin has begun active, although the ACE will not be plenty with both of these. The models are showing more activity on the pipe.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear is light and SSTs and moisture are high. Environment is primed otherwise but interaction with 92E will be an issue and lack of central convection indicates to me that this is more than 18 hours way from genesis.

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (91E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure south of southwestern Mexico are beginning to show some
signs of organization. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued:

WTPN21 PHNC 062200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062152Z JUN 25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 062200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 104.7W TO 12.0N 107.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062030Z INDICATES THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 105.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 105.7W, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. A
061719Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 18-23KT WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 91E
IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
(LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91E
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 91, 2025060700, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1066W, 20, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico have increased a little, but remain disorganized.
Continued gradual development of this system is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

EP, 91, 2025060712, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1086W, 25, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

Looks with more convection rather than circulation exposed like it was earlier.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
still expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

EP, 91, 2025060718, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1085W, 25, 1007, LO

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or
early next week as it moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 08/0000Z

C. 11.6N

D. 108.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0. THE PT
IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[StormWeather]

So both this and 92E are T#1.5 now. Does that mean this is getting closer to TD status?

[cycloneye]

So both this and 92E are T#1.5 now. Does that mean this is getting closer to TD status?

Both are very close. Here is the intensity chart from dvorak.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocea ... chart.html

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southwestern coast
of Mexico have become better organized this evening. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is
likely to form on Sunday or early next week as it moves
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. For more information on this system,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent