EPAC: BARBARA - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2025060612, , BEST, 0, 108N, 963W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 180, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003, SPAWNINVEST, ep732025 to ep922025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep922025.dat

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually increasing in association
with a trough of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward
just off the coast of Mexico. Interests in southern and
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looks good with plenty of convection and a fairly good circulationn.

[Yellow Evan]

Only GFS has this being dominant over 91E atp.

[cycloneye]

Looks good with plenty of convection and a fairly good circulationn.

https://i.imgur.com/sYFiPPO.gif

https://i.imgur.com/eq9t6cA.gif

Maybe the fujiwhara effect comes to play here or not? What do the members think?

[Kingarabian]

Everything is on the table. Two independent systems. Two systems combining into one.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Only GFS has this being dominant over 91E atp.

I'm actually starting to wonder if that might be the case since it appears much more convectively organized than 91E right now. I guess we'll see how things progress.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (92E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are showing
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is likely to form this weekend as the system moves
west-northwestward. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued:

WTPN22 PHNC 062200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062151ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 062200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 96.7W TO 12.5N 100.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062040Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 97.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 97.0W, APPROXIMATELY 387 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO,
MEXICO.A 061627Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
INVEST 91E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 92, 2025060700, , BEST, 0, 123N, 970W, 30, 1006, DB

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's a TD already.

[Yellow Evan]

TCG is underway.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form this weekend as the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Locally heavy rains are
possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system. For additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized near a
low pressure area located about 150 miles off the coast of
southern Mexico. However, recent satellite data suggest that the
system does not yet have a well-defined circulation. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day
or two as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this system. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 07/1200Z

C. 13.2N

D. 97.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.5. MET=1.0. PT=1.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

EP, 92, 2025060712, , BEST, 0, 135N, 994W, 30, 1006, DB

[cycloneye]

Is looking very close to be TD or TS Barbara.

[Kingarabian]

Its a little broad but IMO this has been a TC.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little more than 150 miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico have continued to become more organized during the past few
hours. Although the system does not yet appear to have a
well-defined circulation, further development is anticipated and a
tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today
or tonight. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward near
15 mph today, then continue in that general direction at a slightly
slower forward speed through early next week. Locally heavy rains
are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico
during the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system. For additional information, including
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]