Texas Summer 2025

[CaptinCrunch]

I got egg to golf ball size hail in Kennedale, good thing I have a safe area for our vehicles. The hail last about 15 min and started out as dime to nickel size but quickly went to egg/golf ball size.

[wxman22]

Good support from the CAM’s for a potent squall line here tomorrow evening. Wouldn’t be surprised to see an upgrade to Enhanced Risk eventually.

[Cpv17]

Yikes!

https://i.ibb.co/HfJrt28t/Screenshot-2025-06-01-at-19-45-14-Models-ECMWF-Pivotal-Weather.png
https://i.ibb.co/nqNYC8kv/Screenshot-2025-06-01-at-19-48-18-Models-ECMWF-Pivotal-Weather.png

The 0z really cut back on those totals lol

[CaptinCrunch]

Yikes!

https://i.ibb.co/HfJrt28t/Screenshot-2025-06-01-at-19-45-14-Models-ECMWF-Pivotal-Weather.png
https://i.ibb.co/nqNYC8kv/Screenshot-2025-06-01-at-19-48-18-Models-ECMWF-Pivotal-Weather.png

The 0z really cut back on those totals lol

Looks like the Winter Snow accumulation maps, over done from start to finish.

[wxman22]

As expected the SPC mentioned in the afternoon update the possibility of an Enhanced Risk for wind tomorrow.

..Central Texas to the Ozarks...
Modestly enhanced/focused forcing for ascent preceding the
southern-stream shortwave trough and weak lee cyclone over the
southern/central Plains will support numerous bands of
eastward-moving thunderstorms during the afternoon into the
evening/overnight hours. While overnight convection and related
boundary-layer overturning is expected here, diurnal heating of an
increasingly moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) will still
yield moderate surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with 30-40 kt
of effective shear, will support a mix of supercell clusters and
organized line segments -- capable of producing scattered severe
wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a couple embedded tornadoes.
While there does appear to be a focused/favorable corridor for
swaths of severe wind with upscale-growing convection (especially
over the central/southern Plains), early-day storms limit confidence
in the overall convective evolution -- precluding an upgrade to
30-percent wind/ENH at this time.

[wxman22]

[HockeyTx82]

This moring stuff plus cloud cover I assume would lesson our threat later on for DFW?

[rwfromkansas]

This moring stuff plus cloud cover I assume would lesson our threat later on for DFW?

Likely not the evening squall line but other stuff probably. It’s not much so I don’t see a big impact. Just light rain mostly now. No big outflow.

[wxman22]

Busy week ahead for the southern plains with several opportunities for severe weather this week starting today.

[wxman22]

[HockeyTx82]

https://i.ibb.co/V0RxpLc5/IMG-0477.png

A watch dropped but much more further north than that box would have indicated.

[wxman22]

[wxman22]

The storms are here.

[wxman22]

Supercell moving into WF.

[Brent]

61 in Amarillo

[Ntxw]

Ensembles medium-long range is showing signs of troughing along the Pac NW and west coast. Inversely would support a ridge mid June, so we would likely start to see our first extended heat. Not all that unusual though given that will be approaching the summer solstice. Get as much rain as you can the next 1-2 weeks.

[wxman22]

Wow what a storm! Winds have been gusting to hurricane force for 15+ mins with nickel size hail. Have some large branches down.And powerlines are down blocking some highways. Strongest storm I’ve seen so far this year wind wise! I love the weather up here lol.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles medium-long range is showing signs of troughing along the Pac NW and west coast. Inversely would support a ridge mid June, so we would likely start to see our first extended heat. Not all that unusual though given that will be approaching the summer solstice. Get as much rain as you can the next 1-2 weeks.

I’m really not too concerned yet about any death ridge parking itself over us for a long extended period of time.

[South Texas Storms]

Ensembles medium-long range is showing signs of troughing along the Pac NW and west coast. Inversely would support a ridge mid June, so we would likely start to see our first extended heat. Not all that unusual though given that will be approaching the summer solstice. Get as much rain as you can the next 1-2 weeks.

I’m really not too concerned yet about any death ridge parking itself over us for a long extended period of time.

Longer range models have been indicating south TX could see closer to normal temps and possibly above normal rainfall during the second half of June. The ridge could be far enough north to bring southern areas easterly flow which would open us up to any tropical waves moving westward across the Gulf.

[WacoWx]

Really strong rotation on radar west of Bowie.