EPAC: ALVIN - Remnant - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

The ride is over for Alvin. Dry air, cooler waters and strong shear taking a decisive toll.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
800 PM MST Fri May 30 2025

Alvin is losing strength due to the influences of strong shear and
intrusions of dry air. The low-level center is now exposed to the
south of a decaying area of thunderstorms, and the cloud pattern is
becoming increasingly ragged. A blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 40
kt. Continued strong southerly shear, dry air, and cool SSTs should
cause additional weakening, and Alvin is expected to become a
remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely on Sunday.

The storm is moving northward at 9 kt. A slightly slower
north-northwestward or northward motion is expected within the low-
to mid-level flow until the system dissipates. Alvin is forecast to
become a weak remnant low or an open trough by the time it nears
the southern Baja California peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 19.1N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 21.7N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1200Z 23.0N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

Unseasonable moisture should continue to spread over northwest Mexico from Alvin and aided by the jet.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
200 AM MST Sat May 31 2025

A collapsing area of fragmented convection is all that remains of
Alvin's cloud pattern this morning. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 35 kt, between the objective intensity guidance of 32-40
kt and closest to the TAFB T-2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification. Global
models predict that the strong shear, dry air, and cool sea surface
temperatures should prevent any new organized deep convection from
forming. Alvin is forecast to become a remnant low later today and
dissipate on Sunday.

Alvin is moving northward at 9 kt in the low-level flow. This
general motion is expected to continue through the weekend and only
minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 20.0N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/0600Z 22.3N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Bye Alvin.

EP, 01, 2025053112, , BEST, 0, 204N, 1095W, 30, 1006, LO

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025

...ALVIN DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW...
...SWELLS AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 109.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES