2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS ensembles sill on with this. 6z Operational is, well... something else. Euro ensembles have it also, but not quite as gung ho.

[GCANE]

I'll be looking at the 00Z 5/31 GFS run to see if there is a legit TC formation forecast (144 hrs out) in the W Carib that may possibly enter the GOM.

[cycloneye]

He is having fun with GFS.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1928418003957223711

[Teban54]

A slightly weaker on Katrina on June 10, yeah, sounds totally legit

[DunedinDave]

June 10 is still a ways away. Euro is not on board with GFS idea yet so I would be skeptical right now. GFS is notorious for building something up and then nothing comes of it.

[Steve]

Should get a new BOMM later today or tomorrow. All models aren't on board yet, but here we go...

[MetroMike]

With all the GFS bashing going on across social media how many times last year was it the GFS spotting development that verified before the Euro even caught up?
Maybe a tale of two extremes. Not saying the GFS is correct in this instance, but past history is very telling.

[cycloneye]

Umm, Andy between the lines of the message has this developing but not as the wild GFS has.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1928468513393463602

[tolakram]

With all the GFS bashing going on across social media how many times last year was it the GFS spotting development that verified before the Euro even caught up?
Maybe a tale of two extremes. Not saying the GFS is correct in this instance, but past history is very telling.

GFS develops everything and rarely misses anything, but is wrong most of the time. Yea, when something does end up developing it's usually first.

[chaser1]

With all the GFS bashing going on across social media how many times last year was it the GFS spotting development that verified before the Euro even caught up?
Maybe a tale of two extremes. Not saying the GFS is correct in this instance, but past history is very telling.

That's a very good point. Do I think a 946mb hurricane is going to barrel into Louisiana within 2 weeks? Hell no. On the other hand, how reasonable is it for a superior global model to have a capacity to sniff out tropical genesis (to some extent) well ahead of all other global models? Sure, there is an "X" percentage that nothing at all develops in the Western Caribbean or GOM by June 15 however I think that persistent GFS model runs are highly foretelling that "something" will minimally pose a threat of developing. A tropical wave or gyre could bubble up from Central America and ultimately remain entangled with land, or something begins to organize but runs out of time, or a sloppy tropical (or subtropical) depression could form and intensify just enough to get tagged with a name and dump copious rain over Louisiana (or S Florida, Yucatan, etc).

If any of the above plays out so too will the familiar global model adjustments occur. The EURO or ICON will suddenly come to play, CMC will more or less mimic whatever the EURO suggests, and the GFS will begin backing off "Armageddon", with subsequent forecasts suggesting a much less strong and more reasonable outcome. I'd hedge toward expecting a confluence of convection and lower surface pressures that will result in our first significant Atlantic tropical disturbance. I think a reasonable outcome would range somewhere between too weak/unorganized to classify as a TD, and something near a borderline TD/TS (or "Potential advisory event).

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs shifted east again, too far out to say anything more than watch this general area in a week. (Ensemble spread area) First shows up on the GFS really on the 7th/8th.

[chaser1]

With all the GFS bashing going on across social media how many times last year was it the GFS spotting development that verified before the Euro even caught up?
Maybe a tale of two extremes. Not saying the GFS is correct in this instance, but past history is very telling.

GFS develops everything and rarely misses anything, but is wrong most of the time. Yea, when something does end up developing it's usually first.

True, however this perspective could just as easily be considered - The EURO, CMC, & ICON all suggest a less than 10% chance of tropical development within their window of vision. How useful is that for cruisers, vacationers, wedding planners, etc if commonly wrong ...even if the ultimate outcome is not a direct threat from a tropical storm but instead resulting in a good deal of really cruddy weather?

[wxman57]

GFS always pulls something like this in May or June. I can't find any hint of a feature in the Euro (surface & aloft). The one positive for development is that I'll be on vacation June 8-11. Storms like to form when I'm unavailable. One thing to watch for is any evidence of development showing up in other models over the coming week.

GFS Trend Valid 18Z Tuesday, June 10th. Try copying/pasting the link below into your browser to see the animation. It won't convert to a URL here because of that "blob:" at the beginning:

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/b0257e0e-e5cb-4aa4-ba2a-5edd3660eb2e

[Stratton23]

the one thing i will say that the GFS does have going for it is the MJO, favorable passage moves into the caribbean / gulf in 10-14 days, that could help to really enhance or kick start a CAG, thats something the models definitely do not handle well at all

[cycloneye]

Good post from Levi Cowan. For those who may not see it, here it is.

@TropicalTidbits
The GFS model is predicting sudden hurricane development in the western Caribbean in 8-10 days.

I'll take the under. As my long-time followers know, this model is infamous for over-amplifying tropical thunderstorm complexes. You can see the massive amount of 24-hour rainfall dropped in one spot, evidence of that convection. The associated vertical mass flux generates cyclonic vorticity that quickly causes a compact, strong circulation to emerge in a high shear (unfavorable) environment. This look is typically implausible.

The quoted tweet from 3 days ago lays out why there may be opportunities for tropical storm formation as we head into the 2nd and 3rd week of June. But you can usually safely bet that the GFS will be too eager and early, especially when it's a 10-day forecast.

Don't get wrapped up in sensational posts with scary graphics depicting hurricanes in the Gulf that some social media accounts make a living on. We'll certainly be keeping tabs on this region in June, though, and if a credible threat becomes likely, you'll hear about it here and at
@NHC_Atlantic
.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1928516790830903440

[Jr0d]

Not even June 1st and GFS is already living up.to its acronym Give Florida a Storm.

Tuesday the 10th I have a summer party on a boat in Key West, this is the only thing that favors potential development in my amatuer opinion.

[Kingarabian]

Also watch and see if the CMC catches on.

[Blown Away]

In past decades it was common for a June gyre from the SW Caribbean to move up the W Coast of FL, the difference was these lows were sloppy TD’s or low end TS. June SST’s are now running above historical averages in the GOA and can support strong TS to Hurricane systems. It would not shock me to see a strong TS to Cat 1-2 in June in the E GOA (GOM).

[HurricaneBelle]

In past decades it was common for a June gyre from the SW Caribbean to move up the W Coast of FL, the difference was these lows were sloppy TD’s or low end TS. June SST’s are now running above historical averages in the GOA and can support strong TS to Hurricane systems. It would not shock me to see a strong TS to Cat 1-2 in June in the E GOA (GOM).

Just what we need, our fourth Perrycane in three seasons.

[tolakram]

With all the GFS bashing going on across social media how many times last year was it the GFS spotting development that verified before the Euro even caught up?
Maybe a tale of two extremes. Not saying the GFS is correct in this instance, but past history is very telling.

GFS develops everything and rarely misses anything, but is wrong most of the time. Yea, when something does end up developing it's usually first.

True, however this perspective could just as easily be considered - The EURO, CMC, & ICON all suggest a less than 10% chance of tropical development within their window of vision. How useful is that for cruisers, vacationers, wedding planners, etc if commonly wrong ...even if the ultimate outcome is not a direct threat from a tropical storm but instead resulting in a good deal of really cruddy weather?

Keep your eye on the weather, will it actually be cruddy?