EPAC: ALVIN - Remnant - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

GEFS:



EPS:



Visible sat:

Broad turning evident. I'm seeing raw westerlies in the surface flow.



850mb vorticity increasing.

[Kingarabian]

Well see how it looks in the morning, but so far it's been developing quickly and following the GFS more.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. While recent satellite wind
data indicates the system does not yet have a well-defined
circulation, environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the
next day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

They may skip TD status and go to TS if there is data with TS force winds.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. While the system
currently lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental
conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next
day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mora

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2025052712, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1012W, 20, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

Circulation looks good but the question is if there is recent data showing it reached the surface?

]

[Yellow Evan]

ASCAT had a closed center that was weak but not elongated. Usually not an issue in this part of the basin anyway with weak trades climatologically favored. Convective organization still lacking though.

[Kingarabian]

Just need a big burst of convection and it should be on it's way.

[cycloneye]

100%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Satellite imagery shows showers and thunderstorms becoming better
organized near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. While the system still
lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions are
favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the
low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mora

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Should be off and running with a little more convective organization. Thinking 80-85kt with this one.

[TomballEd]

Looks better on visible than it does in IR.

[Sciencerocks]

LLC around 103.5 and a MLC that is possibly going to attempt to transfer to surface near the convection at 12north/~100.8 west. Pretty broad but starting to develop the lower level structure. I'd watch the eastern area near convection force its self to the surface and pull in the western LLC as the system tightens over the next 12-24 hours. Depression still about 24 hours off.

[cycloneye]

The second TWO with 100%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico, but the system still lacks a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are favorable
for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the low moves
generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Sciencerocks]

I don't expect this to be a fast process as it appears to be rather broad. Probably at least 5pm tomorrow before any upgrade.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy. What happened to this? Where is the convection?

[cycloneye]

Intensity guidance rightfully has come down and only one has a hurricane.

EP, 90, 2025052800, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1023W, 20, 1008, DB

[Kingarabian]

Dry air prohibiting it currently.

[Sciencerocks]

I wouldn't be shocked if this tops out around 45 knts in about 60 hours. Broad and ill defined. If it goes west or baja. If it takes a track further east and possibly hits mexico with the warmer sst's and friction from land allowing better convergence. Well, maybe slightly stronger but that is looking far less likely.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1927559321820270871

[Yellow Evan]

This is too broad for its own good. At least a day away.