EPAC: ALVIN - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2025052618, , BEST, 0, 110N, 995W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002, SPAWNINVEST, ep722025 to ep902025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep902025.dat

[Hurricane2022]

Cool. We could see a strong hurricane coming out from this. A Major is also possible, I think.

[cycloneye]

Cool. We could see a strong hurricane coming out from this. A Major is also possible, I think.

It will be fun to track as it will be far from land and although it wont last many days because cooler waters await.

[cycloneye]

Cool. We could see a strong hurricane coming out from this. A Major is also possible, I think.

Plenty of fuel for it that will help your intensity thinking.

[cycloneye]

[mixedDanilo.E]

Surprised by the intensity guidance, this could actually be a hurricane. Haven't had a May hurricane in some time.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/yoshii63/status/1927138461758243265

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
and more concentrated near a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are favorable for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the
middle portion of the week while the low moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[StormWeather]

Looks like we are getting closer to go time with 90E.

Quick question: when was the last time the EPAC produced the first NHEM cyclone of the year and also started before the WPAC?

[Ulf]

Quick question: when was the last time the EPAC produced the first NHEM cyclone of the year and also started before the WPAC?

In terms of named storms, most likely 2016 with Hurricane Pali but that one was very weird in multiple ways

[StormWeather]

Quick question: when was the last time the EPAC produced the first NHEM cyclone of the year and also started before the WPAC?

In terms of named storms, most likely 2016 with Hurricane Pali but that one was very weird in multiple ways

Central Pacific Storm that formed from a WWB unusually close to the equator, twin of sorts with Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula if I remember correctly. It formed near the same location that Tropical Depression Nine-C dissipated about a week or two earlier. I am remembering that correctly, right?

[Kingarabian]

Overall structure looking good. Also will be interesting to see how the NHC is this season in regards to its forecasting.

[Yellow Evan]

Need a core by Thursday otherwise this will get sheared by the subtropical jet + ULL. Also need to watch for ULAC shear in the short term. Category 1 is my expectation for now.

[Yellow Evan]

As for the disturbance itself, thunderstorm activity has gradually increased in organization and there’s clear mid level structure but I don’t think it’s translated to the surface yet.

[cycloneye]

Alvin will not last more than 5 days because of the cooler waters that will be awaiting.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 90, 2025052700, , BEST, 0, 115N, 995W, 25, 1008, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

[StormWeather]

RI guidance triggered huh? What’s it’ll be?