2025 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

GFS is alone on intensity.

[cycloneye]

Whoa GFS. Let's see when the invest comes, how HAFS and HWRF perform with it.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1926306480820474075

[Teban54]

Whoa GFS. Let's see when the invest comes, how HAFS and HWRF perform with it.

https://i.imgur.com/9F1MT0Y.jpeg

• 0z GFS: Peak 942 mb, heads NNW without recurves of any kind
• 6z GFS: Peak 929 mb, recurves and stalls offshore Mexico and dissipates there without landfall
• 12z GFS: Peak 941 mb, recurves and landfalls in Mexico while rapidly weakening
• 0z Euro: Peak 996 mb
• 6z Euro: Peak 999 mb
• GEFS ensembles are quite active, but mostly cap out at Cat 2 strength
• Euro ensembles are even more aggressive than GEFS, with many majors on the 0z 5/24 run; a bit less so on 6z at the 144 hrs time frame

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[StormWeather]

Up to 80% in the 7 day range when the procurer hadn’t really appeared yet? Huh, must be a decent environment coming up then.

[cycloneye]

Looks like from this area south of CentralAmerica will be the trigger to form the first TC of 2025 with a name in the Northern Hemisphere.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, looks like the invest will be up later today or tonight.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, looks like the invest will be up later today or tonight.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

https://i.imgur.com/a2FUfmp.png

https://i.imgur.com/dWUeVpW.png

GFS continues to be the most bullish. But good agreement on a good sized system forming this week.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1926631254830514243

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Taking shape slowly.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico remain disorganized. Conditions appear
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue along a broad trough
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form in a few days while it moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near a broad
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form around the middle of this week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

It should be a invest this afternoon or evening.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization near a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form near the middle portion of the week while the low
moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90E is up

[cycloneye]

12z GFS goes bonkers with a second one.

[cycloneye]

The EPS have plenty of activity for the second system.