Texas Spring 2025

[snownado]

Apparently POW Ponder posted something about a mesoscale complex moving through woth 70 plus mile an hour winds and some graphic. My brother just sent it to me. I think it looks like it came from Facebook, maybe...

Hype Machine

HRRR, to its credit, has been remarkably consistent each run with showing that.

That said, I'll believe it when I see it.

[txtwister78]

Latest WRF, HRRR, and RFFS look very reasonable to me. Most of the thunderstorm complexes over the next few days develop across north and central Texas and then track southeastward largely missing the Hill Country and SA. Par for the course.

Good thing is these complexes are hard to predict so hopefully they're wrong and areas that need rain the most can cash in at least one day this week.

Yeah I think a lot will depend on previous day activity and where these outflow boundaries are positioned however latest HRRR extended (18z), RRFS and even Texas Tech Wrf are pointing to southern HC and SA metro region tomorrow early evening.

Still optimistic we cash in early next week with this boundary nearby (hopefully stalled just north of us).

[wxman22]

A watch is likely coming here.

Mesoscale Discussion 0978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...southwestern Oklahoma...northern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 252327Z - 260130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue downstream through the evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing across portions of
the Texas Panhandle this evening. Guidance suggests eventual upscale
growth is possible, with an MCS continuing downstream through the
evening across southern Oklahoma/north-central Texas. A very moist
and unstable environment with steep low to mid-level lapse rates
ahead of this cluster would favor a downstream wind threat. However,
strong shear profiles and a strengthening low-level jet could
support embedded supercells with a continuing threat for both wind
and tornadoes. As such, the trends in thunderstorm mode will need to
be monitored but a downstream watch is likely to be needed in the
next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/25/2025

[wxman22]

[Brent]

I'm definitely expecting a squall line south of here at some point tonight and early morning. Both our severe threats have been in the 3-7am timeframe the first two days

[rwfromkansas]

POW hypes, but the wind threat is there with this. No derecho, but could pack some wind.

[Cpv17]

I'm definitely expecting a squall line south of here at some point tonight and early morning. Both our severe threats have been in the 3-7am timeframe the first two days

Usually you don’t really get much of a severe threat in those hours. Probably will just mainly be a rain event.

[Brent]

I'm definitely expecting a squall line south of here at some point tonight and early morning. Both our severe threats have been in the 3-7am timeframe the first two days

Usually you don’t really get much of a severe threat in those hours. Probably will just mainly be a rain event.

You say that but the last tornado in the city limits was at 2am in August

A suburb had a tornado at 6am the other week

[wxman22]

[Cpv17]

I'm definitely expecting a squall line south of here at some point tonight and early morning. Both our severe threats have been in the 3-7am timeframe the first two days

Usually you don’t really get much of a severe threat in those hours. Probably will just mainly be a rain event.

You say that but the last tornado in the city limits was at 2am in August

A suburb had a tornado at 6am the other week

Yeah, I mean, you can get severe weather any time of the day, but I just feel like the chances are way less during those hours. I’ve always felt like the biggest severe weather threat was from like 3-8pm, especially if the sun is out most of the day.

[snownado]

Usually you don’t really get much of a severe threat in those hours. Probably will just mainly be a rain event.

You say that but the last tornado in the city limits was at 2am in August

A suburb had a tornado at 6am the other week

Yeah, I mean, you can get severe weather any time of the day, but I just feel like the chances are way less during those hours. I’ve always felt like the biggest severe weather threat was from like 3-8pm, especially if the sun is out most of the day.

Arguably the worst straight-line wind event in recorded history for DFW occurred at diurnal minimum (~5am) one year ago (5/27).

EDIT: The purported 3-8pm severe weather events have been nothing more than a fairy tale the past half-decade.

[Cpv17]

You say that but the last tornado in the city limits was at 2am in August

A suburb had a tornado at 6am the other week

Yeah, I mean, you can get severe weather any time of the day, but I just feel like the chances are way less during those hours. I’ve always felt like the biggest severe weather threat was from like 3-8pm, especially if the sun is out most of the day.

Arguably the worst straight-line wind event in recorded history for DFW occurred at diurnal minimum (~5am) one year ago (5/27).

EDIT: The purported 3-8pm severe weather events have been nothing more than a fairy tale the past half-decade.

I feel like there’s been too much cloud cover lately during days with moderate or high risks.

[Brent]

You say that but the last tornado in the city limits was at 2am in August

A suburb had a tornado at 6am the other week

Yeah, I mean, you can get severe weather any time of the day, but I just feel like the chances are way less during those hours. I’ve always felt like the biggest severe weather threat was from like 3-8pm, especially if the sun is out most of the day.

Arguably the worst straight-line wind event in recorded history for DFW occurred at diurnal minimum (~5am) one year ago (5/27).

EDIT: The purported 3-8pm severe weather events have been nothing more than a fairy tale the past half-decade.

Yup Monday with the weakening hail storm here at 4pm was the first time I ever remember a daytime event here and this is my 5th spring

The derecho in 23 which is the worst event I've seen here was also after midnight

[snownado]

Score 1 for the HRRR. All of DFW getting molly wopped right now.

[snownado]

The Addison ASOS is reporting 0.15 mile visbility on the latest observation. I don't think I've ever seen that with a t'storm.

Beyond that, multiple 60-70 MPH wind gust reports are coming into the SPC.

[HockeyTx82]

My outside thermometer says 44F.... what am I missing?

I'll take it but wow.

Also I think the worst of it must have been just to my East as we didn't have much wind but I got 1.7 in of rain

Edit, I think my thermometer is stuck.

Well maybe not. I might have a pocket of cold air stuck outside my house from the storm.

Very odd

[snownado]

HRRR does suggest another round of strong t'storms late this afternoon (which FWD is also playing up), though if that happens, I suspect it will be sub-severe due to the worked over atmosphere.

We'll see...

[snownado]

As far as total rainfall so far, radar estimates show a widespread 2-4" across the NE 2/3rds of the Metroplex.

Fort Worth proper has been the relative screw zone in terms of precip totals.

[wxman22]

Enhanced risk Issued for the Hill Country...

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of the southern
Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail
should occur with initial development in parts of west-central
Texas, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this
afternoon/evening.

...Edwards Plateau to the ArkLaTex...
A large complex of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across
parts of central/east TX into the ArkLaTex. Some of this activity
may be elevated and occurring to the north of an outflow boundary
from prior convection. Still, the southern portion of the line will
have access to greater instability, and may continue to pose an
isolated threat for severe/damaging winds this morning if it can
remain surface based. In the wake of this activity, strong daytime
heating is anticipated across west-central TX/the Edwards Plateau as
a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the
southern/central Plains through this evening. The front/composite
outflow boundary from convection farther east should decelerate and
stall over this region by the early afternoon, with a very moist
low-level airmass in place to its south. Strong to locally extreme
instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with
steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy.

Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate
along/near the boundary across west-central TX by 18-21Z and quickly
become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain weak,
mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with
height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This
will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development
this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in
diameter) appears likely. With time, clustering/upscale growth is
anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward. An
increasing threat for severe winds should develop as this mode
transition occurs across central TX and vicinity. Given increased
confidence in a focused corridor of very large hail and severe wind
potential this afternoon/evening, have introduced an Enhanced Risk
across parts of west-central TX with this update.

[txtwister78]

Active few days shaping up across SC TX. Definitely bring on the rain but as is the case in May that might very well come with a price. Concerned about very large hail today and even the potential for a few isolated tornadoes.

SPC has upgraded the hail threat but I could also see them increasing the tornado risk across the southern HC and SA metro region as well should storms develop late afternoon into early evening along any outflow boundaries that are present from activity this morning.

I think initiation might be a little further south than what HRRR is currently showing closer to RRFS and Texas Tech WRF but lots to watch and once again another day to monitor afternoon visible satellite imagery.