Texas Spring 2025

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1241 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat May 17, 2025 3:02 pm

Bit of a dryline bulge west of DFW.

Starting to mix east of Abilene it appears. A bit less oppressive.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1242 Postby wxman22 » Sat May 17, 2025 3:54 pm

The storms in central Texas are building to the north. The severe thunderstorm watch was also extended further southwest.

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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1243 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat May 17, 2025 4:03 pm

Not sure DFW will luck out this time. They have hours to get stronger.

Off topic, I’m loving the VIPER HD profile on RadarScope. I don’t like how even light rain is yellow on the default. This has more separation in colors, purples etc.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1244 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat May 17, 2025 4:17 pm

I'm confused, I don't recall the HRRR having storms that far SW of DFW. Does this have any impact on developing storms due west of DFW?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

17/20z keeps things mostly DFW south now..... what are we missing?

And Oklahoma looks awfully quiet too...... interesting
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1245 Postby Captmorg70 » Sat May 17, 2025 4:23 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:I'm confused, I don't recall the HRRR having storms that far SW of DFW. Does this have any impact on developing storms due west of DFW?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

17/20z keeps things mostly DFW south now..... what are we missing?


My gut reaction to the storms today is the storm initialization is to the south and the storms will stay further south.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1246 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat May 17, 2025 4:30 pm

Captmorg70 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I'm confused, I don't recall the HRRR having storms that far SW of DFW. Does this have any impact on developing storms due west of DFW?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

17/20z keeps things mostly DFW south now..... what are we missing?


My gut reaction to the storms today is the storm initialization is to the south and the storms will stay further south.

Would hope so, but it does look like some brand new development may be taking place on the north side of that cluster, north of stephenville. Regardless, I wonder if these storms will continue to compete in close proximity or manage to separate as the evening progresses
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1247 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat May 17, 2025 4:31 pm

Captmorg70 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I'm confused, I don't recall the HRRR having storms that far SW of DFW. Does this have any impact on developing storms due west of DFW?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

17/20z keeps things mostly DFW south now..... what are we missing?


My gut reaction to the storms today is the storm initialization is to the south and the storms will stay further south.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

Yes it seems that everything will blow down south and then move Southeast over to Texarkana.

Not to say we won't get something, but it's looking like it mightbe a bust again for these enhanced days. Maybe, not a full one but storms did fire south. Tracking that one north of Stephenville for sure


Not trying to poke the bear.... :double:
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1248 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat May 17, 2025 4:57 pm

It seems to be building north to me looking east toward the Stephenville cell. So I think at least part of DFW will get hit.

But, the admittedly small tornado risk will maybe bust and the super high hail. Either way it’s at least some severe when you can see the nice thunderhead building for once with daylight.

Also, a bit of separation now with the cell entering Parker.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1249 Postby mmmmsnouts » Sat May 17, 2025 5:15 pm

It looks like the two warned cells are swinging out at a 90 degree angle as they hit the “corner” between Hood and Tarrant. One moving more north, the other one east over the path that yesterday’s storm followed. Might escape this one yet again.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1250 Postby wxman22 » Sat May 17, 2025 5:24 pm

It's getting a little busy out there.

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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1251 Postby wxman22 » Sat May 17, 2025 5:32 pm

Yikes! ( The supercell near Paoli OK near 35 )

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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1252 Postby wxman22 » Sat May 17, 2025 5:36 pm

mmmmsnouts wrote:It looks like the two warned cells are swinging out at a 90 degree angle as they hit the “corner” between Hood and Tarrant. One moving more north, the other one east over the path that yesterday’s storm followed. Might escape this one yet again.


Yeah SPC mentioned that things were favorable today for splitting supercells. Unfourtanelty or Fourtanetly depending if you wanted storms or not, they decided to split right before getting into DFW.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1253 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat May 17, 2025 5:45 pm

lol. Well there is some development over DFW but not severe.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1254 Postby Brent » Sat May 17, 2025 5:47 pm

Lol the force field over DFW is pretty amazing to watch :spam: :lol:

I guess it started with the snow in January :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1255 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat May 17, 2025 6:28 pm

Getting some very good non-severe rain and wind in Ponder right now.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1256 Postby txtwister78 » Sat May 17, 2025 6:31 pm

Another reminder today that drylines alone are inefficient makers of thunderstorms and as we saw once again models don't always get it right under these conditional setups.

Don't blame SPC however for going with watches as the environment was loaded for big hail potential but it appears most areas will dodge that threat today thankfully.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1257 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat May 17, 2025 6:53 pm

Well the storm went out with a bang. We had a good power flash and gusty wind for about 5 minutes and then that was it. Temperatures now 68° and .5 in of rain.

1 down, 2 to go.

Any chance this worked things over to reduce tomorrow?
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1258 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat May 17, 2025 8:18 pm

Hi everyone! It has been a while, but I am pleased to announce that I have officially completed my education at Mississippi State and have earned my Bachelor of Science in Professional Meteorology! I am so excited to see where my journey heads next!
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1259 Postby wxman22 » Sat May 17, 2025 8:32 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#1260 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat May 17, 2025 8:35 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:Hi everyone! It has been a while, but I am pleased to announce that I have officially completed my education at Mississippi State and have earned my Bachelor of Science in Professional Meteorology! I am so excited to see where my journey heads next!


What are thinking? Private, Public, Military?

Congrats!!!
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