Texas Spring 2025

[wxman22]

Severe weather risk for portions of North Texas from Saturday-Tuesday.

[ElectricStorm]

Still time for this setup to go to crap but it's been a long time since I've seen a 3 day dryline setup look this good. Could be 3 straight classic May tornado events if trends continue with Sun/Mon being the main show.

[Edwards Limestone]

Another north Texas/Oklahoma set up while we burn down here. Yawn.

Agree with South Texas Storms- this pattern sucks.

[TomballEd]

Another north Texas/Oklahoma set up while we burn down here. Yawn.

Agree with South Texas Storms- this pattern sucks.

Ensemble GFS rain totals through 15 days in coastal Texas is about 0.3 inches. Op GFS is under 0.15 inches. I think the Sonoran heat ridge is locking in over Texas. We get a few days next week per ensembles where a trough knocks the heights down, and then the ridge comes back stronger than ever.

[HockeyTx82]

Slight Risk with a Sig Severe hatch now for Saturday.

I wonder if we expect an upgrade?

Are we talking just Springtime storms or historical potential catastrophic outbreak.

[wxman22]

Slight Risk with a Sig Severe hatch now for Saturday.

I wonder if we expect an upgrade?

Are we talking just Springtime storms or historical potential catastrophic outbreak.

Somebody in the Plains could get an decent outbreak from this. Never say never but I don't think it will be historic. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk eventually *somewhere* in traditional Tornado Alley if the trends continue. So maybe something in-between typical "springtime storms" and a "historical outbreak". LOL

[HockeyTx82]

Slight Risk with a Sig Severe hatch now for Saturday.

I wonder if we expect an upgrade?

Are we talking just Springtime storms or historical potential catastrophic outbreak.

Somebody in the Plains could get an decent outbreak from this. Never say never but I don't think it will be historic. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk eventually *somewhere* in traditional Tornado Alley if the trends continue. So maybe something in-between typical "springtime storms" and a "historical outbreak". LOL

Are you running for office anytime soon?

[HockeyTx82]

Joking aside I appreciate your input, I just thought that sounded like a very political answer that a politician would say. Haha

[wxman22]

Joking aside I appreciate your input, I just thought that sounded like a very political answer that a politician would say. Haha

LOL

[wxman22]

The 0Z HRRR on Saturday. ( The HRRR also shows isolated supercells tomorrow fwiw )

[HockeyTx82]

The 0Z HRRR on Saturday. ( The HRRR also shows isolated supercells tomorrow fwiw )

https://i.ibb.co/4ZLgqC1W/refcmp-us-sc-3.png

https://i.ibb.co/jv8VFPn7/refcmp-us-sc-4.png

https://i.ibb.co/PGRDD5Zm/refcmp-us-sc-5.png

Well that's parked right over me, nice knowing you.

[Stratton23]

Man the 00z Euro is such a tease, has the heat ridge really breaking down, and more widespread daily rain chances for the whole state, too bad thats in the 10-12 day range, until then, this heat absolutely sucks

[Brent]

Man the 00z Euro is such a tease, has the heat ridge really breaking down, and more widespread daily rain chances for the whole state, too bad thats in the 10-12 day range, until then, this heat absolutely sucks

You would think if the front is as big as the models show and the fact it's still May(I mean im seeing people in New Orleans talking about it)... it would go further south

I guess we'll see yeah if it was later in the summer I'd say no chance

[wxman22]

Enhanced risk issued already for parts of Oklahoma.

[Ntxw]

The 0Z HRRR on Saturday. ( The HRRR also shows isolated supercells tomorrow fwiw )

https://i.ibb.co/4ZLgqC1W/refcmp-us-sc-3.png

https://i.ibb.co/jv8VFPn7/refcmp-us-sc-4.png

https://i.ibb.co/PGRDD5Zm/refcmp-us-sc-5.png

Should storms fire later today and/or tomorrow they will be timed well for daytime heating. Could be some severe weather in NTX.

[Cpv17]

The 0Z HRRR on Saturday. ( The HRRR also shows isolated supercells tomorrow fwiw )

https://i.ibb.co/4ZLgqC1W/refcmp-us-sc-3.png

https://i.ibb.co/jv8VFPn7/refcmp-us-sc-4.png

https://i.ibb.co/PGRDD5Zm/refcmp-us-sc-5.png

Should storms fire later today and/or tomorrow they will be timed well for daytime heating. Could be some severe weather in NTX.

Probably big hailers.

[Cpv17]

Enhanced risk issued already for parts of Oklahoma.

https://i.postimg.cc/MZsSSRf2/IMG-1154.gif

Looks bad for you, Brent.

[Cpv17]

Man the 00z Euro is such a tease, has the heat ridge really breaking down, and more widespread daily rain chances for the whole state, too bad thats in the 10-12 day range, until then, this heat absolutely sucks

Travis Herzog said yesterday there will be a front coming through sometime next week to lower the humidity for a few days.

[Brent]

Enhanced risk issued already for parts of Oklahoma.

https://i.postimg.cc/MZsSSRf2/IMG-1154.gif

Looks bad for you, Brent.

I'll believe it when I see it though it is interesting it's a multi day dryline setup. Its been so long ago since we've had a proper setup in the daytime here. Everything has been at night and going linear lately

[snownado]

For once, DFW actually has a solid setup for peak-heating severe weather tomorrow.