SIO: ERROL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane2022]

"High-end" T7.5

[kevin]

Current imagery of Errol on VIS/SWIR

[Hurricane2022]

Per MW imagery, Errol really did a very brief ERC. I hope he can clear his new and beautiful eye before shear kicks in.

[Subtrop]

TPXS10 PGTW 161220

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL)

B. 16/0130Z

C. 14.31S

D. 119.01E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO 12-HOUR CONSTRAINT. BROKE 18-
HOUR AND 24-HOUR CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


NEVAREZ

[cycloneye]

Breaking news

12z Best Track up to 140kt and pressure down to 919 mbs.

29S ERROL 250416 1200 14.4S 118.9E SHEM 140 919

[kevin]

Different intensity estimates at this point.

ADT (CI#) = 6.1 / 945 mb / 117 kt
AiDT = 116 kt
DPRINT = 937 mb / 112 kt
DMINT = 943 mb / 108 kt
SATCON = 944 mb / 117 kt

However, since ADT still holds on to constraints and it's been very clear that Errol is undergoing ERI, I'd personally pick the raw T#.

ADT (rawT#) = 6.8 / 927 mb / 135 kt

Manual Dvorak with eye correction even results in DT 7.5.

WMG eye + eye adjustment = 7.5 / 906 mb / 155 kt

So we basically have an intensity estimate ranging from ~945mb/110kt to ~905mb/155kt. Difficult to say where Errol is now exactly. I'd personally go for the raw T# of ADT with perhaps a slight nudge upwards due to the DT 7.5 -> 920 mb / 140 kt.

Edit: I guess JTWC is thinking about the same, just saw cycloneye's message after posting this. It's now officially a cat 5.

[cycloneye]

Close to it's peak in intensity.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol has developed into a category 4 cyclone
displaying an eye. Position is based on animated EIR satellite imagery with
good confidence.

Intensity 95 kn based on a combination of intensity estimates.

Dvorak analysis. Dvorak analysis: DT is 6.5 based on eye pattern, W surrounding
and OW/WMG eye temp. Trend is D+ giving a MET of 4.5 and PT 5.0. FT and CI=5.5
are constrained. Objective estimates (1-minute average) at 1200UTC: ADT 117 kn,
AiDT 116 kn, DPRINT 112 kn, DMINT 108 kn and SATCON 117 kn.

Environmental conditions are favourable for further development over the next 6
to 12 hours. Sea surface temperatures are near 30C along the forecast track,
and deep layer moisture is in place around the system. Errol lies along the
axis of an upper-level anticyclone and CIMSS analysed deep layer wind shear is
about 10 kn from the northeast.

A shortwave upper trough over Western Australia is enhancing poleward outflow
and there is reasonable upper divergence analysed to the south of the
circulation. As a result further development is possible in the next 6 to12
hours. The upper trough is likely to increase vertical wind shear, thiswill
also be accompanied by dry air intrusion into the core and as a result Errol is
expected to weaken quickly during Thursday. Continued weakening is likely as
Errol approaches the west Kimberley coast on Saturday and it is possible the
system may have weakened below tropical cyclone intensity before crossing the
coast.

The system has become slow moving over the last 6 hours as the influence of a
mid-level ridge to the south weakens. An amplifying upper trough over southwest
WA is expected to steer the system southeast from Thursday, towards the west
Kimberley coast. The depth and intensity of Errol hasn't been captured fully by
the deterministic model runs. As a result, there is large uncertainty in its
movement along its track. On its current forecast, Errol is expected to make
landfall as a tropical low near Cape Leveque on Saturday afternoon. If Errol
weakens quickly then the low-level centre may be steered back to the west,
consequently there is still a large spread in location of the ensemble members
in the longer term.

[cycloneye]

?????
https://i.imgur.com/q7AoX1M.png
https://i.imgur.com/fiQBZHN.png

The second post of the thread by Hurricane2022 had ?????. It came close but it has put a great show in open waters without threatening any land.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/GoldStndAcademy/status/1912510597977059452

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1912522447401713927

[Subtrop]

TPXS10 PGTW 161518
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL)
B. 16/1440Z
C. 14.47S
D. 118.92E
E. ONE/GK2A
F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET
YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT. BROKE 18-HOUR AND 24-HOUR
CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1039Z 14.30S 119.02E SSMS

NEVAREZ

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1912526046437536056

[MarioProtVI]

So far this is the second storm this year that has absolutely exploded in intensity when I’m away for one day (had an exam yesterday…). Props to HAFS for nailing this even if it’s not the bonkers 865 mb run.

[Teban54]

[Yellow Evan]

Likely peaked at around 150 knots 3 hours ago. One of the most abrupt cases of rapid intensification I’ve seen with a pinhole to pinhole ERC that only took a couple hours right in the middle.

[Hurricane2022]

Cool
 https://x.com/agamer2023/status/1912514450243854559

[ChrisH-UK]

The CIMSS real time intensity product had a peak speed of 138 knots. Well it has lived up to the HAFS-A hype for a change.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... ry_IR.html

[ChrisH-UK]

This is a 6 hour loop of Errol in the Tropical Airmass product. You can see its spinning away at peak speed being very tight and compact then it lets go of some of the mass, spreads out and slows down quite a bit.

KOMPSAT-2A Tropical Airmass

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1912557161130963047