Texas Spring 2025

[wxman22]

Mid April and veyond is trending hotter and much drier in the models across the entire state, if you like rain, you’re out of luck because it surely isnt looking good for that , ridging becomes stronger

The CPC's forecast of a wetter pattern after the 20th still looks on point to me.Models have been pretty consistently showing a cutoff low moving in from the pacific after the 20th of April. And producing cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Rockies.There will be some resistance from the ridging overhead initially. But the ridging will start to loose its grip over the area and slowly move over to the east as a large cut off low makes its way into the plains.Of course there's going to be run to run variability in surface depiction and QPF in this range as we're still 200+ hours away. But the overall pattern still looks good for storms at least up here it does.

Very good agreement among the global models in this range showing a strong cutoff (maybe even a Baja Low) crashing into the west coast.

[Stratton23]

wxman22 notice the ridge building in mexico, we would need that ridge in mexico to break down more, models have been consistently showing that cut off low ejects to far off to the north east to bring any real significant rains to the state, ideally wed want that ridge in mexico to flatten and allow for that cut off low to move into west texas, that would be a better setup for widespread rains

[wxman22]

wxman22 notice the ridge building in mexico, we would need that ridge in mexico to break down more, models have been consistently showing that cut off low ejects to far off to the north east to bring any real significant rains to the state, ideally wed want that ridge in mexico to flatten and allow for that cut off low to move into west texas, that would be a better setup for widespread rains

The size, track, and orientation of the cutoff low/trough will have a large effect on how widespread storms are. But the setup the models are showing is a very favorable pattern for storms this time of year at least for the northern portions of the state.But i do agree though that the further south in the state you are the more you would need the low to dig to produce widespread storms. Up here though even if the current track and ejection of the low the models are showing at this time verified the setup climatology would be favorable for storms here.

[Ntxw]

wxman22 notice the ridge building in mexico, we would need that ridge in mexico to break down more, models have been consistently showing that cut off low ejects to far off to the north east to bring any real significant rains to the state, ideally wed want that ridge in mexico to flatten and allow for that cut off low to move into west texas, that would be a better setup for widespread rains

The size, track, and orientation of the cutoff low/trough will have a large effect on how widespread storms are. But the setup the models are showing is a very favorable pattern for storms this time of year at least for the northern portions of the state.But i do agree though that the further south in the state you are the more you would need the low to dig to produce widespread storms. Up here though even if the current track and ejection of the low the models are showing at this time verified the setup climatology would be favorable for storms here.

In the warmer season, a Baja cutoff low is actually not that favorable. Ridging East of us and return flow from gulf, trough over the intermountain West is a better setup. SW flow aloft with a growing warm season Sonoran ridge is a dry one.

[wxman22]

I guess we will see, pattern looks good to me though if you're looking for storms.

[Cpv17]

I guess we will see, pattern looks good to me though if you're looking for storms.

Unfortunately the models have really backed off on rain chances the past couple days and the CPC has backed off as well and is trending warmer for Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

We'll likely see warmer than normal conditions over the next few weeks. I'm optimistic we'll see a wetter pattern return in about 10 days. Latest ensembles and longer range models are in general agreement in near to above normal rainfall across much of TX during the April 20-30 time period.

[Cpv17]

We'll likely see warmer than normal conditions over the next few days. I'm optimistic we'll see a wetter pattern return in about 10 days. Latest ensembles and longer range models are in general agreement in near to above normal rainfall across much of TX during the April 20-30 time period.

Idk. CPC has now backed off and operationals can’t make up their minds, it seems. I’d like to wait a few more days first before I’m too confident in anything.

[txtwister78]

Yes, this isn't always accurate for a particular region I know, but it does at least signal a more active pattern potentially setting up as South Texas Storms mentioned above for the latter half of the month. That signal continues as we round out the month and move into May as we enter the height of severe weather season across our state.

[txtwister78]

We'll likely see warmer than normal conditions over the next few days. I'm optimistic we'll see a wetter pattern return in about 10 days. Latest ensembles and longer range models are in general agreement in near to above normal rainfall across much of TX during the April 20-30 time period.

Idk. CPC has now backed off and operationals can’t make up their minds, it seems. I’d like to wait a few more days first before I’m too confident in anything.

CPC changes their tune every few days and that's more of a probability relative to averages than a general forecast in my opinion anyway.

[snownado]

Yes, this isn't always accurate for a particular region I know, but it does at least signal a more active pattern potentially setting up as South Texas Storms mentioned above for the latter half of the month. That signal continues as we round out the month and move into May as we enter the height of severe weather season across our state.

https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/scp/cfs_week2.png

[txtwister78]

Yes, this isn't always accurate for a particular region I know, but it does at least signal a more active pattern potentially setting up as South Texas Storms mentioned above for the latter half of the month. That signal continues as we round out the month and move into May as we enter the height of severe weather season across our state.

https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/scp/cfs_week2.png

https://i.ibb.co/tpq2Jb0N/i-smell-cap-9a2d06c97f-1.jpg

Possible. Depends on how much of that trough/energy actually comes out into Texas that models have been off and on hinting at in the extended or if it gets cutoff similar to the previous system and instead, we get more dryline conditional threats.

Time of the season (severe weather climatology) matters however and so whenever you see a system potentially brewing across the SW in mid to late April it definitely needs to be watched.

[rwfromkansas]

That CFS was a hilarious joke last time. Sorry, I will be confident within a few days this time.

Until then, it’s likely MO, AR, TN.

[Cpv17]

That CFS was a hilarious joke last time. Sorry, I will be confident within a few days this time.

Until then, it’s likely MO, AR, TN.

Yeah, it’s just hard to be confident when it’s over a week out.

[snownado]

Made it to 85*F at DFW yesterday, the hottest day of the month so far.

Our 2nd 90*F day of the year is looking increasingly likely on Sunday.

[Brent]

Saw a truck spraying for mosquitoes earlier

The summer hell is near

[Stratton23]

12z CMC/ GFS are more encouraging in regards to rain chances

[wxman22]

Could be a pretty active peak season in traditional tornado alley this year. As models continue to advertise a period of multiple troughs moving into the west coast and ejecting over the plains starting around the 20th.The wonderful Euro AI has been locked in with the stormy pattern for several days now. And has been an excellent model at sniffing out the longer term weather pattern. When I see the AI lock into a system I pay attention.And it looks like the operational Euro is getting onboard too. Along with the GFS and CMC.

[txtwister78]

Remember that CPC dry outlook yesterday. Lol

[South Texas Storms]

Yep, latest trends today still look good for an active weather pattern returning to much of the Plains starting as soon as next weekend. Continue to become more optimistic that we could see at least a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms across a large part of TX during the April 20-30 time frame.