2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

UKMET for JJA.

@dmorris9661

New March 2025 UKMET shows a neutral ENSO look come JJA 2025. Atlantic looks warm, though the subtropics are warmer than the MDR. Note the forecasted temp anomalies are cooler than 2024. Perhaps this alleviates the stability issue we saw in 2024 during peak season

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1899431029410046021

[cycloneye]

JB does not say hell season for 2025.

@BigJoeBastardi
What may be the greatest 1 year drop in tropical and S Atlantic SST is clearly seen here, along with the drop in geothermal input to the system. Projections for 2025 indicate even more drop off of geothermal input, so the test case for the hypothesis may be starting

@BigJoeBastardi
more immediate value in the SST is for the hurricane season which indicates to me a less active Main Development region and further north development. Euro is actually slightly below normal in total ACE thru Sept

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467230976364787



 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467606454636869

[WeatherBoy2000]

JB does not say hell season for 2025.

@BigJoeBastardi
What may be the greatest 1 year drop in tropical and S Atlantic SST is clearly seen here, along with the drop in geothermal input to the system. Projections for 2025 indicate even more drop off of geothermal input, so the test case for the hypothesis may be starting

@BigJoeBastardi
more immediate value in the SST is for the hurricane season which indicates to me a less active Main Development region and further north development. Euro is actually slightly below normal in total ACE thru Sept

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467230976364787



 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467606454636869

Despite all that, the Caribbean is still record warm:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1899620474390454448

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1899620474390454448

Interesting. Maybe this year won't see as active as an early season as last year if that graphic verifies. Although, last year also had Beryl, and while that graphic makes it look like a hellishly active June-August, aside from Beryl (and maybe Debby), activity wasn't abnormally alarming otherwise last year. Goes to show that while a decent guide, precip anomaly maps like that don't mirror the exact tropical cyclone tracks/action.

[jconsor]

Early indications from seasonal models suggest above normal activity in the Atlantic, possibly even hyperactive.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901983289365115051



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901985334319026588



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901986295569666225

[Teban54]

Early indications from seasonal models suggest above normal activity in the Atlantic, possibly even hyperactive.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901983289365115051



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901985334319026588



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901986295569666225

Great thread! Quoting a few key statements in text, both for my own highlighting and for those who are no longer using Twitter/X:

Looking at Jul-Sep VP composites for hyperactive vs. slightly above average ("active") Atl years since 1995, main differences that stand out are: 1) Hyperactive years have -VP centered further west from E. Africa to the IO, whereas active years it's near Maritime Continent/W. Pac

2) Hyperactive years have +VP stronger and centered further west, over the central and eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, active years have a weaker +VP anomaly centered from the far e. Pacific to the w. Atlantic.

The seasonal model forecasts shown above are in between the two composites, but closer to the hyperactive composite. Doesn't mean this year will end up hyperactive, but worth considering.

[cycloneye]

Let's do a mini survey here. What analog years(s) may be the best for the upcomming season based on what we know so far about the different factors? I go with 2008.

[WaveBreaking]

Let's do a mini survey here. What analog years(s) may be the best for the upcomming season based on what we know so far about the different factors? I go with 2008.

I’ve heard people say 2011 and 2017 could be analogs due to similar ENSO progression and the global SST configuration. Personally I’d lean more towards 2011 than 2017.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1901289142446850499



Although this post is talking about the US tornado season, the nao is an important influence on Atlantic ssts. A strong -nao in April would be favorable for warming the tropical Atlantic. Since about mid-January we've generally been in a +nao pattern, this pattern has been responsible for the rapid cool down of the mdr during the last two months.

[TomballEd]

JB does not say hell season for 2025.

@BigJoeBastardi
What may be the greatest 1 year drop in tropical and S Atlantic SST is clearly seen here, along with the drop in geothermal input to the system. Projections for 2025 indicate even more drop off of geothermal input, so the test case for the hypothesis may be starting

@BigJoeBastardi
more immediate value in the SST is for the hurricane season which indicates to me a less active Main Development region and further north development. Euro is actually slightly below normal in total ACE thru Sept

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467230976364787



 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467606454636869

I have seen nobody but JB talking about geothermal (ie, subsea volacanic) influences have a significant effect on SST. I've seen him mention before re: climate change, he is not a believer in CC. Has anybody at all ever mentioned geothermal influences on SST?

[USTropics]

JB does not say hell season for 2025.

@BigJoeBastardi
What may be the greatest 1 year drop in tropical and S Atlantic SST is clearly seen here, along with the drop in geothermal input to the system. Projections for 2025 indicate even more drop off of geothermal input, so the test case for the hypothesis may be starting

@BigJoeBastardi
more immediate value in the SST is for the hurricane season which indicates to me a less active Main Development region and further north development. Euro is actually slightly below normal in total ACE thru Sept

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467230976364787



 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467606454636869

I have seen nobody but JB talking about geothermal (ie, subsea volacanic) influences have a significant effect on SST. I've seen him mention before re: climate change, he is not a believer in CC. Has anybody at all ever mentioned geothermal influences on SST?

There's no literature support behind this 'hypothesis'. I think JB might need to go back and revisit a thermodynamics/radiative transfer course .

Some napkin math, Wunsch (2018) estimates that the radiative flux averages 0.1 W/m^2 globally across the ocean floor, with a possibility of localized 4 W/m^2 near active volcanic or hydrothermal vents.

In contrast, solar radiative heating averages about 340 W/m^2.

So, the net heat absorption by the ocean is orders of magnitude higher from solar radiation than geothermal input. It quite literally, and mathematically, doesn't make sense that geothermal inputs would have even a fraction of a percentage difference on skin temperatures of the ocean near the surface (on a global or hemispheric scale).

[cycloneye]

Early indications from seasonal models suggest above normal activity in the Atlantic, possibly even hyperactive.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901983289365115051



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901985334319026588



 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901986295569666225

Great thread! Quoting a few key statements in text, both for my own highlighting and for those who are no longer using Twitter/X:

Looking at Jul-Sep VP composites for hyperactive vs. slightly above average ("active") Atl years since 1995, main differences that stand out are: 1) Hyperactive years have -VP centered further west from E. Africa to the IO, whereas active years it's near Maritime Continent/W. Pac

2) Hyperactive years have +VP stronger and centered further west, over the central and eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, active years have a weaker +VP anomaly centered from the far e. Pacific to the w. Atlantic.

The seasonal model forecasts shown above are in between the two composites, but closer to the hyperactive composite. Doesn't mean this year will end up hyperactive, but worth considering.

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1902065442161856661

[Category5Kaiju]

I mean, it could easily not be the case (which would be terrific and good news). Lots of moving puzzle pieces have yet to be determined.

But, it's kind of disconcerting how many times 2017 is getting referenced (directly or indirectly) with this year. Namely, with the ENSO evolution, including the "pseudo" El Nino Costero in the EPAC and a lack of WWB parades that would help spawn a true El Nino. And now with those diagrams that Dr. Cantor shared. Also, I'm very wary of how early predictions for the 2017 season were rather unimpressive.

Sometimes there are huge early signs that a hyperactive season is on the way (2020 and 2024 as examples). But sometimes, hyperactive seasons strike out of the blue, as demonstrated with seasons like 2004, 2005, and 2017. You don't think it's going to happen until it's just starting.

[crownweather]

Let's do a mini survey here. What analog years(s) may be the best for the upcomming season based on what we know so far about the different factors? I go with 2008.

While I'm still working on my hurricane season forecast, which I hope to have posted in a couple of weeks or so, I am using the following analog years as part of the forecast.

1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021.

Based on what I'm looking at, I suspect that this might be a East Coast favored season for tropical cyclone threats and impacts.

[chaser1]

JB does not say hell season for 2025.

@BigJoeBastardi
What may be the greatest 1 year drop in tropical and S Atlantic SST is clearly seen here, along with the drop in geothermal input to the system. Projections for 2025 indicate even more drop off of geothermal input, so the test case for the hypothesis may be starting

@BigJoeBastardi
more immediate value in the SST is for the hurricane season which indicates to me a less active Main Development region and further north development. Euro is actually slightly below normal in total ACE thru Sept

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467230976364787



 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467606454636869

I have seen nobody but JB talking about geothermal (ie, subsea volacanic) influences have a significant effect on SST. I've seen him mention before re: climate change, he is not a believer in CC. Has anybody at all ever mentioned geothermal influences on SST?

Nope; Not unless one were referencing SST enhancement in the Antarctic region as a result of geothermal activity. Definitely not a factor that I have ever heard with regard to playing a role that might enhance (or detract from) tropical development.

[ChrisH-UK]

JB does not say hell season for 2025.

@BigJoeBastardi
What may be the greatest 1 year drop in tropical and S Atlantic SST is clearly seen here, along with the drop in geothermal input to the system. Projections for 2025 indicate even more drop off of geothermal input, so the test case for the hypothesis may be starting

@BigJoeBastardi
more immediate value in the SST is for the hurricane season which indicates to me a less active Main Development region and further north development. Euro is actually slightly below normal in total ACE thru Sept

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467230976364787



 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1899467606454636869

I have seen nobody but JB talking about geothermal (ie, subsea volacanic) influences have a significant effect on SST. I've seen him mention before re: climate change, he is not a believer in CC. Has anybody at all ever mentioned geothermal influences on SST?

There's no literature support behind this 'hypothesis'. I think JB might need to go back and revisit a thermodynamics/radiative transfer course .

Some napkin math, Wunsch (2018) estimates that the radiative flux averages 0.1 W/m^2 globally across the ocean floor, with a possibility of localized 4 W/m^2 near active volcanic or hydrothermal vents.

In contrast, solar radiative heating averages about 340 W/m^2.

So, the net heat absorption by the ocean is orders of magnitude higher from solar radiation than geothermal input. It quite literally, and mathematically, doesn't make sense that geothermal inputs would have even a fraction of a percentage difference on skin temperatures of the ocean near the surface (on a global or hemispheric scale).

I don't think he is talking about 'Geothermal input' been from volcanoes but rather he used the wrong wording. It been global temperatures influences on SST, cooler temps in the atmosphere helps to cool down the sea temperatures. That would make more sense in the context of the post.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1903039858672603535

[cycloneye]

The African Monsoon will be active.

@BenNollWeather
As hurricane season gets closer, forecasters will be keeping an eye on velocity potential predictions.

Early indications are for more rising air over Africa this summer, which signals the potential for a more robust monsoon and associated easterly waves or hurricane seedlings.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1903104060007338128

[cycloneye]

A good X thread about the sst's in MDR.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1903897393306722356