Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Texas Snowman]

Look at all the pretty colors!

 https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1894108328919208087

[Ntxw]

Look at all the pretty colors!

 https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1894108328919208087

For NTX Texoma region had their "Feb 2010" with pretty widespread 8-12" back in early Jan then 2-3" of LES. Impressive year up there.

[Brent]

It was definitely a much better winter here than the nightmares of last winter. I don't care to ever talk about that disaster again

I also highly doubt we're totally done like I already said. Last year was probably the first year we actually were?

[ElectricStorm]

It was definitely a much better winter here than the nightmares of last winter. I don't care to ever talk about that disaster again

I also highly doubt we're totally done like I already said. Last year was probably the first year we actually were?

Yeah definitely one of the better winters we've had over the last several years. Glad we actually got some decent snowstorms, even though we only really got ice in Norman last week. That said though that's enough cold for me, bring me 70s and storm season

[wxman57]

Winter has flatlined across Texas. Time for the spring warm-up over the next few weeks. March even sounds much warmer than February. Good riddance to cold, come on heat!

MAWA!

[snownado]

Winter has flatlined across Texas. Time for the spring warm-up over the next few weeks. March even sounds much warmer than February. Good riddance to cold, come on heat!

MAWA!

Onto the Spring 2025 thread!

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 4&t=124606

[snownado]

It was definitely a much better winter here than the nightmares of last winter. I don't care to ever talk about that disaster again

I also highly doubt we're totally done like I already said. Last year was probably the first year we actually were?

Maybe in Tulsa.

Texas was definitely done at this point in 2022 as well (which foreshadowed the looming Summer)...

[orangeblood]

Look at all the pretty colors!

 https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1894108328919208087

For NTX Texoma region had their "Feb 2010" with pretty widespread 8-12" back in early Jan then 2-3" of LES. Impressive year up there.

See this from NOAA ?? They seem clueless sometimes...Judah Cohen does a great job disputing this ridiculous stance from NOAA on his blog, Highly recommend reading that blog post!

 https://x.com/NOAAClimate/status/1892972556757467443


 https://x.com/judah47/status/1894009212696486389



https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

[snownado]

"Polar Vortex" at this point to be the most overused phrase in the lexicon of atmospheric science...

[snownado]

That said, NOAA isn't wrong, rather being taken out of context by those with their own agenda IMO.

If you click on and read NOAA's actual blog post instead of just their misleading tweet, they actually agree with Judah Cohen:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... lar-vortex

But the truth is, in our opinion at least, while the stratosphere has been doing some interesting stretching and wobbling, there’s just not much evidence that this is really the main driver of our winter weather so far this year.

As we have talked about other times this winter, some research suggests that perhaps it’s not always about the strength of the polar vortex, but the shape. At least qualitatively, it does seem like the stratospheric polar vortex has extended over North America more than it normally does this winter. However, there are a few reasons we feel like that connection is more uncertain than many news stories and social media posts would have you believe.

For one thing, scientists have not agreed on a common method for measuring this “extension,” which makes it hard to say on the fly whether the vortex really was more stretched than normal this winter. Additionally, decades of research have built our understanding of how “typical” coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere works, meaning the literal mechanics of it. In contrast, the idea of the polar vortex influencing weather patterns through stretching is relatively new, and the mechanics by which it might occur are less understood [footnote 3]. That uncertainty means it’s also unclear whether polar vortex stretching actually leads to, or is just a result of, the tropospheric conditions that drive cold air outbreaks over North America.

In short—and we can’t believe we're saying this—we wish we weren't seeing so many headlines blaming the polar vortex for this winter's weather in the U.S. It turns out that for the polar vortex, there may be such a thing as bad publicity.

[Ntxw]

The Euro AI has now been upgraded to single v1 and is operational. It is supposed to be an improvement over the Euro AI we have been using the past year, as it is now no longer experimental. The path forward is to eventually have an AI ensemble suite to pair with it. 500mb skill scores across the board in the short and medium range of the ECMWF and it's AI counterpart continue to be the highest of the bunch.

The ECMWF continues to be leaps ahead of its counterparts with development and initiation, nice to have more verification in the coming seasons. Regardless of where you stand on its individual event performance I think for most of us, it's look to the Euro first and the rest are complimentary pieces (GFS, CMC, etc.)

[orangeblood]

That said, NOAA isn't wrong, rather being taken out of context by those with their own agenda IMO.

If you click on and read NOAA's actual blog post instead of just their misleading tweet, they actually agree with Judah Cohen:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... lar-vortex

But the truth is, in our opinion at least, while the stratosphere has been doing some interesting stretching and wobbling, there’s just not much evidence that this is really the main driver of our winter weather so far this year.

As we have talked about other times this winter, some research suggests that perhaps it’s not always about the strength of the polar vortex, but the shape. At least qualitatively, it does seem like the stratospheric polar vortex has extended over North America more than it normally does this winter. However, there are a few reasons we feel like that connection is more uncertain than many news stories and social media posts would have you believe.

For one thing, scientists have not agreed on a common method for measuring this “extension,” which makes it hard to say on the fly whether the vortex really was more stretched than normal this winter. Additionally, decades of research have built our understanding of how “typical” coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere works, meaning the literal mechanics of it. In contrast, the idea of the polar vortex influencing weather patterns through stretching is relatively new, and the mechanics by which it might occur are less understood [footnote 3]. That uncertainty means it’s also unclear whether polar vortex stretching actually leads to, or is just a result of, the tropospheric conditions that drive cold air outbreaks over North America.

In short—and we can’t believe we're saying this—we wish we weren't seeing so many headlines blaming the polar vortex for this winter's weather in the U.S. It turns out that for the polar vortex, there may be such a thing as bad publicity.

Huh? They're literally saying there's not enough evidence/too much uncertainty yet Cohan is providing quite a bit of evidence to back up his claim. NOAA's US winter temperature forecast for February was warm (it was not!!) and instead of admitting they were wrong with their forecast, they continue to double down. Similar setup happened in 2013/14 winter and they continue to ignore

This entire narrative from NOAA of never admitting they're wrong and pointing fingers at "social media posts" is bad form, they need to stop with that approach or most of the public will continue to lose trust in them! Admit you were wrong, learn from it and move on! Instead - if they are wrong, the narrative is "we don't know what happened" but don't believe "social media" posts that were right because that would make us look bad.

[orangeblood]

The Euro AI has now been upgraded to single v1 and is operational. It is supposed to be an improvement over the Euro AI we have been using the past year, as it is now no longer experimental. The path forward is to eventually have an AI ensemble suite to pair with it. 500mb skill scores across the board in the short and medium range of the ECMWF and it's AI counterpart continue to be the highest of the bunch.

The ECMWF continues to be leaps ahead of its counterparts with development and initiation, nice to have more verification in the coming seasons. Regardless of where you stand on its individual event performance I think for most of us, it's look to the Euro first and the rest are complimentary pieces (GFS, CMC, etc.)

100% agreed...they are the front runners in development and investment in the weather modeling world!

[snownado]

That said, NOAA isn't wrong, rather being taken out of context by those with their own agenda IMO.

If you click on and read NOAA's actual blog post instead of just their misleading tweet, they actually agree with Judah Cohen:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... lar-vortex

But the truth is, in our opinion at least, while the stratosphere has been doing some interesting stretching and wobbling, there’s just not much evidence that this is really the main driver of our winter weather so far this year.

As we have talked about other times this winter, some research suggests that perhaps it’s not always about the strength of the polar vortex, but the shape. At least qualitatively, it does seem like the stratospheric polar vortex has extended over North America more than it normally does this winter. However, there are a few reasons we feel like that connection is more uncertain than many news stories and social media posts would have you believe.

For one thing, scientists have not agreed on a common method for measuring this “extension,” which makes it hard to say on the fly whether the vortex really was more stretched than normal this winter. Additionally, decades of research have built our understanding of how “typical” coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere works, meaning the literal mechanics of it. In contrast, the idea of the polar vortex influencing weather patterns through stretching is relatively new, and the mechanics by which it might occur are less understood [footnote 3]. That uncertainty means it’s also unclear whether polar vortex stretching actually leads to, or is just a result of, the tropospheric conditions that drive cold air outbreaks over North America.

In short—and we can’t believe we're saying this—we wish we weren't seeing so many headlines blaming the polar vortex for this winter's weather in the U.S. It turns out that for the polar vortex, there may be such a thing as bad publicity.

Huh? They're literally saying there's not enough evidence/too much uncertainty yet Cohan is providing quite a bit of evidence to back up his claim. NOAA's US winter temperature forecast for February was warm (it was not!!) and instead of admitting they were wrong with their forecast, they continue to double down. Similar setup happened in 2013/14 winter and they continue to ignore

This entire narrative from NOAA of never admitting they're wrong and pointing fingers at "social media posts" is bad form, they need to stop with that approach or most of the public will continue to lose trust in them! Admit you were wrong, learn from it and move on! Instead - if they are wrong, the narrative is "we don't know what happened" but don't believe "social media" posts that were right because that would make us look bad.

2013/2024 was a full-on PV split and SSW event, which we didn't have this year (it was merely a PV stretch/wobble). Both Cohen and NOAA are seemingly in agreement there.

Where they seem to disagree is whether cold air outbreaks are merely asociated with vs. directly caused by PV stretches. To me, that seems like a chicken vs. egg conversation.

That said, I do understand NOAA's perspective. Without a definitive PV Split and SSW event. it's not an easy conclusion to reach either way.

[orangeblood]

That said, NOAA isn't wrong, rather being taken out of context by those with their own agenda IMO.

If you click on and read NOAA's actual blog post instead of just their misleading tweet, they actually agree with Judah Cohen:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... lar-vortex

Huh? They're literally saying there's not enough evidence/too much uncertainty yet Cohan is providing quite a bit of evidence to back up his claim. NOAA's US winter temperature forecast for February was warm (it was not!!) and instead of admitting they were wrong with their forecast, they continue to double down. Similar setup happened in 2013/14 winter and they continue to ignore

This entire narrative from NOAA of never admitting they're wrong and pointing fingers at "social media posts" is bad form, they need to stop with that approach or most of the public will continue to lose trust in them! Admit you were wrong, learn from it and move on! Instead - if they are wrong, the narrative is "we don't know what happened" but don't believe "social media" posts that were right because that would make us look bad.

2013/2024 was a full-on PV split and SSW event, which we didn't have this year (it was merely a PV stretch/wobble). Both Cohen and NOAA are seemingly in agreement there.

Where they seem to disagree is whether cold air outbreaks are merely asociated with vs. directly caused by PV stretches. To me, that seems like a chicken vs. egg conversation.

That said, I do understand NOAA's perspective. Without a definitive PV Split and SSW event. it's not an easy conclusion to reach either way.

Regardless of what they disagree on, NOAA's seasonal winter forecast was fairly atrocious and they need to begin with asking themselves why ??? Haven't seen many tweets or blog posts explaining why they missed their forecasts. IMO it appears to be as simple as they're basing their forecast largely in part on these long range forecast models, particularly the CFSv2. Just look at this CFSv2 forecast from Mid-December 2024 for January 2025 vs reality...could you get much worse than that ? I hope they start doing more inward reflection and publicly admitting fault instead of spending so much time bashing "social media"

[snownado]

Huh? They're literally saying there's not enough evidence/too much uncertainty yet Cohan is providing quite a bit of evidence to back up his claim. NOAA's US winter temperature forecast for February was warm (it was not!!) and instead of admitting they were wrong with their forecast, they continue to double down. Similar setup happened in 2013/14 winter and they continue to ignore

This entire narrative from NOAA of never admitting they're wrong and pointing fingers at "social media posts" is bad form, they need to stop with that approach or most of the public will continue to lose trust in them! Admit you were wrong, learn from it and move on! Instead - if they are wrong, the narrative is "we don't know what happened" but don't believe "social media" posts that were right because that would make us look bad.

2013/2024 was a full-on PV split and SSW event, which we didn't have this year (it was merely a PV stretch/wobble). Both Cohen and NOAA are seemingly in agreement there.

Where they seem to disagree is whether cold air outbreaks are merely asociated with vs. directly caused by PV stretches. To me, that seems like a chicken vs. egg conversation.

That said, I do understand NOAA's perspective. Without a definitive PV Split and SSW event. it's not an easy conclusion to reach either way.

...Regardless of what they disagree on, NOAA's seasonal winter forecast was fairly atrocious and they need to begin with asking themselves why ??? Haven't seen many tweets or blog posts explaining why they missed their forecasts. IMO it appears to be as simple as they're basing their forecast largely in part on these long range forecast models, particularly the CFSv2. Just look at this CFSv2 forecast from Mid-December 2024 for January 2025 vs reality...could you get much worse than that ?...

The fact that NOAA model projections have been atrocious as of late relative to forecast verification is a whole 'nother conversation, but that wasn't the subject Judah Cohen brought up in his tweet.

[orangeblood]

2013/2024 was a full-on PV split and SSW event, which we didn't have this year (it was merely a PV stretch/wobble). Both Cohen and NOAA are seemingly in agreement there.

Where they seem to disagree is whether cold air outbreaks are merely asociated with vs. directly caused by PV stretches. To me, that seems like a chicken vs. egg conversation.

That said, I do understand NOAA's perspective. Without a definitive PV Split and SSW event. it's not an easy conclusion to reach either way.

...Regardless of what they disagree on, NOAA's seasonal winter forecast was fairly atrocious and they need to begin with asking themselves why ??? Haven't seen many tweets or blog posts explaining why they missed their forecasts. IMO it appears to be as simple as they're basing their forecast largely in part on these long range forecast models, particularly the CFSv2. Just look at this CFSv2 forecast from Mid-December 2024 for January 2025 vs reality...could you get much worse than that ?...

The fact that NOAA model projections have been atrocious as of late relative to forecast verification is a whole 'nother conversation, but that wasn't the subject Judah Cohen brought up in his tweet.

It's related because Judah did a much better job with his forecast this winter compared to NOAA and I believe it's related to them not understanding the PV stretch dynamics like Judah does!

[snownado]

...Regardless of what they disagree on, NOAA's seasonal winter forecast was fairly atrocious and they need to begin with asking themselves why ??? Haven't seen many tweets or blog posts explaining why they missed their forecasts. IMO it appears to be as simple as they're basing their forecast largely in part on these long range forecast models, particularly the CFSv2. Just look at this CFSv2 forecast from Mid-December 2024 for January 2025 vs reality...could you get much worse than that ?...

The fact that NOAA model projections have been atrocious as of late relative to forecast verification is a whole 'nother conversation, but that wasn't the subject Judah Cohen brought up in his tweet.

It's related because Judah did a much better job with his forecast this winter compared to NOAA and I believe it's related to them not understanding the PV stretch dynamics like Judah does!

NOAA's official forecast (not talking about the model projections) in totality really wasn't off by much.

The torchy December has balanced out the cooler than normal Jan / Feb for an overall average winter temp-wise across most of the country.

Judah seems to have tendency to diminish the influence of tropospheric weather phenomena in his predictions, which in all fairness did kind of blow up in his face for December (which he tepidly admitted on Twitter).

EDIT: But I don't want to derail the topic any further. Ultimately, I think most here are satisfied with the winter they got irrespective of the different forecasts and all signs indicate Spring is settling in.

[Brent]

We're running about 70 degrees warmer than last week

But yes Im fine with this winter here if we're actually done. Most definitely was not at the end of February last year

[snownado]

DFW might be able to tag 80*F today.

It's currently 79*F.