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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Yukon Cornelius wrote:After two mornings in the low to mid single digits, we only got down to 16 this morning under mostly cloudy skies. Looks like we might get above freezing today. I’m still rooting for a cooler March.
orangeblood wrote:wxman22 wrote:https://i.ibb.co/wh7bt6RZ/image1-1.png
Amazing! This one shattered a substantial amount of records all across the plains even down to the Gulf of America Coast (Galveston even broke a record low set in 1908)!
Has anyone checked on wxman57 lately ? Hope he wasn't injured during the wall destruction.
The complete voice of reason post Mr. Spann shared:
Cpv17 wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Amazing! This one shattered a substantial amount of records all across the plains even down to the Gulf of America Coast (Galveston even broke a record low set in 1908)!
Has anyone checked on wxman57 lately ? Hope he wasn't injured during the wall destruction.
He's doing just fine. Saw him in the office on Wednesday alive and well. He even said he was going to drive home with the windows down and then go on a nice long bike ride.
What’s the spring rain chances looking like?
Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: The complete voice of reason post Mr. Spann shared:
“ Nobody will share this post, but there has to be a sane voice in the digital wilderness.
Alabama and the Deep South will not experience any high impact weather events over the next 10 days. No tornadoes, floods, winter storms, or severe cold waves.
Beyond 10 days, there is no skill in a specific forecast. Pattern recognition? Yes. A specific forecast? No.
I’ve been getting a large number of “is it true” questions from people seeing rogue social media accounts forecasting blizzards, snowstorms, severe cold, and tornadoes in 2 to 3 weeks. This is what they do… playing you like a fiddle to get social media engagement, which in turn drives monetization from the various creator content funds.
Understand March is one of the most volatile weather months in Alabama… you can indeed have anything from a blizzard to a devastating tornado outbreak. But any 2 to 3 week forecast you see on social media is nothing more than nonsense. Please think before you share…”
orangeblood wrote:Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: The complete voice of reason post Mr. Spann shared:
“ Nobody will share this post, but there has to be a sane voice in the digital wilderness.
Alabama and the Deep South will not experience any high impact weather events over the next 10 days. No tornadoes, floods, winter storms, or severe cold waves.
Beyond 10 days, there is no skill in a specific forecast. Pattern recognition? Yes. A specific forecast? No.
I’ve been getting a large number of “is it true” questions from people seeing rogue social media accounts forecasting blizzards, snowstorms, severe cold, and tornadoes in 2 to 3 weeks. This is what they do… playing you like a fiddle to get social media engagement, which in turn drives monetization from the various creator content funds.
Understand March is one of the most volatile weather months in Alabama… you can indeed have anything from a blizzard to a devastating tornado outbreak. But any 2 to 3 week forecast you see on social media is nothing more than nonsense. Please think before you share…”
ha pot meet kettle....Bold proclamation declaring something like this out to 10 days, does he himself even realize declaring anything (even "no high impact" events) beyond 5 days in the weather world is also non-sense!
orangeblood wrote:Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: The complete voice of reason post Mr. Spann shared:
“ Nobody will share this post, but there has to be a sane voice in the digital wilderness.
Alabama and the Deep South will not experience any high impact weather events over the next 10 days. No tornadoes, floods, winter storms, or severe cold waves.
Beyond 10 days, there is no skill in a specific forecast. Pattern recognition? Yes. A specific forecast? No.
I’ve been getting a large number of “is it true” questions from people seeing rogue social media accounts forecasting blizzards, snowstorms, severe cold, and tornadoes in 2 to 3 weeks. This is what they do… playing you like a fiddle to get social media engagement, which in turn drives monetization from the various creator content funds.
Understand March is one of the most volatile weather months in Alabama… you can indeed have anything from a blizzard to a devastating tornado outbreak. But any 2 to 3 week forecast you see on social media is nothing more than nonsense. Please think before you share…”
ha pot meet kettle....Bold proclamation declaring something like this out to 10 days, does he himself even realize declaring anything (even "no high impact" events) beyond 5 days in the weather world is also non-sense!
txtwister78 wrote:orangeblood wrote:Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: The complete voice of reason post Mr. Spann shared:
“ Nobody will share this post, but there has to be a sane voice in the digital wilderness.
Alabama and the Deep South will not experience any high impact weather events over the next 10 days. No tornadoes, floods, winter storms, or severe cold waves.
Beyond 10 days, there is no skill in a specific forecast. Pattern recognition? Yes. A specific forecast? No.
I’ve been getting a large number of “is it true” questions from people seeing rogue social media accounts forecasting blizzards, snowstorms, severe cold, and tornadoes in 2 to 3 weeks. This is what they do… playing you like a fiddle to get social media engagement, which in turn drives monetization from the various creator content funds.
Understand March is one of the most volatile weather months in Alabama… you can indeed have anything from a blizzard to a devastating tornado outbreak. But any 2 to 3 week forecast you see on social media is nothing more than nonsense. Please think before you share…”
ha pot meet kettle....Bold proclamation declaring something like this out to 10 days, does he himself even realize declaring anything (even "no high impact" events) beyond 5 days in the weather world is also non-sense!
I get his point overall. Heck some do it on here in terms of putting up models and talking about "possibilities" 10 days out. The big difference here is it's just honest discussion/debate and we're not trying to make money off it or intentionally mislead anyone like some of these other folks do for the purpose of getting more traffic/clicks as he describes.
On the other hand, I also feel it's ok for mets to admit mistakes in forecast and I think that would go a long way toward making some of these public service statements more effective to the general public at large. Spann has built up a lot of trust within his community and even nationally to some degree to where this statement I think carries a bit more weight across the weather community, but having said that, with social media being what it is today and with YouTube so called "weather enthusiast" popping up all over, I think that ship has largely sailed, and Mets are going to have just have to roll with it and hope people tune in to those trusted sources for them when it counts the most.
I've always said if you like pages like the POW Ponder guy (not picking on just him) or others with their big bold catchy headlines, hey have at it, but don't be surprised or disappointed when what they're selling changes for the worse or on the other end doesn't end up verifying more times than not and yet people will still go back for more? My view is (despite some of my own personal knowledge of weather) if I'm facing a weather event that has a risk of life and/or property associated with it, I'm probably not going to rely on someone with a YouTube page regurgitating models every video or some random individual on social media without a meteorology degree and some real experience in the field to substantiate that forecast and I think that's the main point of his statement. But hey to each their own, I guess.
txtwister78 wrote:orangeblood wrote:Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: The complete voice of reason post Mr. Spann shared:
“ Nobody will share this post, but there has to be a sane voice in the digital wilderness.
Alabama and the Deep South will not experience any high impact weather events over the next 10 days. No tornadoes, floods, winter storms, or severe cold waves.
Beyond 10 days, there is no skill in a specific forecast. Pattern recognition? Yes. A specific forecast? No.
I’ve been getting a large number of “is it true” questions from people seeing rogue social media accounts forecasting blizzards, snowstorms, severe cold, and tornadoes in 2 to 3 weeks. This is what they do… playing you like a fiddle to get social media engagement, which in turn drives monetization from the various creator content funds.
Understand March is one of the most volatile weather months in Alabama… you can indeed have anything from a blizzard to a devastating tornado outbreak. But any 2 to 3 week forecast you see on social media is nothing more than nonsense. Please think before you share…”
ha pot meet kettle....Bold proclamation declaring something like this out to 10 days, does he himself even realize declaring anything (even "no high impact" events) beyond 5 days in the weather world is also non-sense!
I get his point overall. Heck some do it on here in terms of putting up models and talking about "possibilities" 10 days out. The big difference here is it's just honest discussion/debate and we're not trying to make money off it or intentionally mislead anyone like some of these other folks do for the purpose of getting more traffic/clicks as he describes.
On the other hand, I also feel it's ok for mets to admit mistakes in forecast and I think that would go a long way toward making some of these public service statements more effective to the general public at large. Spann has built up a lot of trust within his community and even nationally to some degree to where this statement I think carries a bit more weight across the weather community, but having said that, with social media being what it is today and with YouTube so called "weather enthusiast" popping up all over, I think that ship has largely sailed, and Mets are going to have just have to roll with it and hope people tune in to those trusted sources for them when it counts the most.
I've always said if you like pages like the POW Ponder guy (not picking on just him) or others with their big bold catchy headlines, hey have at it, but don't be surprised or disappointed when what they're selling changes for the worse or on the other end doesn't end up verifying more times than not and yet people will still go back for more? My view is (despite some of my own personal knowledge of weather) if I'm facing a weather event that has a risk of life and/or property associated with it, I'm probably not going to rely on someone with a YouTube page regurgitating models every video or some random individual on social media without a meteorology degree and some real experience in the field to substantiate that forecast and I think that's the main point of his statement. But hey to each their own, I guess.
txtwister78 wrote:orangeblood wrote:Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: The complete voice of reason post Mr. Spann shared:
“ Nobody will share this post, but there has to be a sane voice in the digital wilderness.
Alabama and the Deep South will not experience any high impact weather events over the next 10 days. No tornadoes, floods, winter storms, or severe cold waves.
Beyond 10 days, there is no skill in a specific forecast. Pattern recognition? Yes. A specific forecast? No.
I’ve been getting a large number of “is it true” questions from people seeing rogue social media accounts forecasting blizzards, snowstorms, severe cold, and tornadoes in 2 to 3 weeks. This is what they do… playing you like a fiddle to get social media engagement, which in turn drives monetization from the various creator content funds.
Understand March is one of the most volatile weather months in Alabama… you can indeed have anything from a blizzard to a devastating tornado outbreak. But any 2 to 3 week forecast you see on social media is nothing more than nonsense. Please think before you share…”
ha pot meet kettle....Bold proclamation declaring something like this out to 10 days, does he himself even realize declaring anything (even "no high impact" events) beyond 5 days in the weather world is also non-sense!
I get his point overall. Heck some do it on here in terms of putting up models and talking about "possibilities" 10 days out. The big difference here is it's just honest discussion/debate and we're not trying to make money off it or intentionally mislead anyone like some of these other folks do for the purpose of getting more traffic/clicks as he describes.
On the other hand, I also feel it's ok for mets to admit mistakes in forecast and I think that would go a long way toward making some of these public service statements more effective to the general public at large. Spann has built up a lot of trust within his community and even nationally to some degree to where this statement I think carries a bit more weight across the weather community, but having said that, with social media being what it is today and with YouTube so called "weather enthusiast" popping up all over, I think that ship has largely sailed, and Mets are going to have just have to roll with it and hope people tune in to those trusted sources for them when it counts the most.
I've always said if you like pages like the POW Ponder guy (not picking on just him) or others with their big bold catchy headlines, hey have at it, but don't be surprised or disappointed when what they're selling changes for the worse or on the other end doesn't end up verifying more times than not and yet people will still go back for more? My view is (despite some of my own personal knowledge of weather) if I'm facing a weather event that has a risk of life and/or property associated with it, I'm probably not going to rely on someone with a YouTube page regurgitating models every video or some random individual on social media without a meteorology degree and some real experience in the field to substantiate that forecast and I think that's the main point of his statement. But hey to each their own, I guess.
Cpv17 wrote:txtwister78 wrote:orangeblood wrote:
ha pot meet kettle....Bold proclamation declaring something like this out to 10 days, does he himself even realize declaring anything (even "no high impact" events) beyond 5 days in the weather world is also non-sense!
I get his point overall. Heck some do it on here in terms of putting up models and talking about "possibilities" 10 days out. The big difference here is it's just honest discussion/debate and we're not trying to make money off it or intentionally mislead anyone like some of these other folks do for the purpose of getting more traffic/clicks as he describes.
On the other hand, I also feel it's ok for mets to admit mistakes in forecast and I think that would go a long way toward making some of these public service statements more effective to the general public at large. Spann has built up a lot of trust within his community and even nationally to some degree to where this statement I think carries a bit more weight across the weather community, but having said that, with social media being what it is today and with YouTube so called "weather enthusiast" popping up all over, I think that ship has largely sailed, and Mets are going to have just have to roll with it and hope people tune in to those trusted sources for them when it counts the most.
I've always said if you like pages like the POW Ponder guy (not picking on just him) or others with their big bold catchy headlines, hey have at it, but don't be surprised or disappointed when what they're selling changes for the worse or on the other end doesn't end up verifying more times than not and yet people will still go back for more? My view is (despite some of my own personal knowledge of weather) if I'm facing a weather event that has a risk of life and/or property associated with it, I'm probably not going to rely on someone with a YouTube page regurgitating models every video or some random individual on social media without a meteorology degree and some real experience in the field to substantiate that forecast and I think that's the main point of his statement. But hey to each their own, I guess.
Some people with met degrees don’t know jack. Plenty of em out there.
Wthrfan wrote:orangeblood wrote:wxman22 wrote:https://i.ibb.co/wh7bt6RZ/image1-1.png
Amazing! This one shattered a substantial amount of records all across the plains even down to the Gulf of America Coast (Galveston even broke a record low set in 1908)!
Has anyone checked on wxman57 lately ? Hope he wasn't injured during the wall destruction.
Probably won't see him until the Winter '25-'26 thread! Pride cometh before the fall!
txtwister78 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:txtwister78 wrote:
I get his point overall. Heck some do it on here in terms of putting up models and talking about "possibilities" 10 days out. The big difference here is it's just honest discussion/debate and we're not trying to make money off it or intentionally mislead anyone like some of these other folks do for the purpose of getting more traffic/clicks as he describes.
On the other hand, I also feel it's ok for mets to admit mistakes in forecast and I think that would go a long way toward making some of these public service statements more effective to the general public at large. Spann has built up a lot of trust within his community and even nationally to some degree to where this statement I think carries a bit more weight across the weather community, but having said that, with social media being what it is today and with YouTube so called "weather enthusiast" popping up all over, I think that ship has largely sailed, and Mets are going to have just have to roll with it and hope people tune in to those trusted sources for them when it counts the most.
I've always said if you like pages like the POW Ponder guy (not picking on just him) or others with their big bold catchy headlines, hey have at it, but don't be surprised or disappointed when what they're selling changes for the worse or on the other end doesn't end up verifying more times than not and yet people will still go back for more? My view is (despite some of my own personal knowledge of weather) if I'm facing a weather event that has a risk of life and/or property associated with it, I'm probably not going to rely on someone with a YouTube page regurgitating models every video or some random individual on social media without a meteorology degree and some real experience in the field to substantiate that forecast and I think that's the main point of his statement. But hey to each their own, I guess.
Some people with met degrees don’t know jack. Plenty of em out there.
Lol. Well, that's a pretty broad statement there my friend. Not sure specifically who you're referring to but good luck in any field finding 100% perfection but that alone shouldn't discredit the entire field. Forecasting weather despite all our technology advances and resources can still be a complex challenge at times as we've all witnessed with so many moving pieces to it and often as I've stated on here before just our general location/geographic variables alone.
I referenced forecast misses above and the importance I think of being as transparent as possible with the public and not just before or during the forecasted event, but perhaps more importantly now the after-action post event summary in terms of what was known and perhaps not known by the forecaster to educate and at the same time improve trust?
orangeblood wrote:txtwister78 wrote:orangeblood wrote:
ha pot meet kettle....Bold proclamation declaring something like this out to 10 days, does he himself even realize declaring anything (even "no high impact" events) beyond 5 days in the weather world is also non-sense!
I get his point overall. Heck some do it on here in terms of putting up models and talking about "possibilities" 10 days out. The big difference here is it's just honest discussion/debate and we're not trying to make money off it or intentionally mislead anyone like some of these other folks do for the purpose of getting more traffic/clicks as he describes.
On the other hand, I also feel it's ok for mets to admit mistakes in forecast and I think that would go a long way toward making some of these public service statements more effective to the general public at large. Spann has built up a lot of trust within his community and even nationally to some degree to where this statement I think carries a bit more weight across the weather community, but having said that, with social media being what it is today and with YouTube so called "weather enthusiast" popping up all over, I think that ship has largely sailed, and Mets are going to have just have to roll with it and hope people tune in to those trusted sources for them when it counts the most.
I've always said if you like pages like the POW Ponder guy (not picking on just him) or others with their big bold catchy headlines, hey have at it, but don't be surprised or disappointed when what they're selling changes for the worse or on the other end doesn't end up verifying more times than not and yet people will still go back for more? My view is (despite some of my own personal knowledge of weather) if I'm facing a weather event that has a risk of life and/or property associated with it, I'm probably not going to rely on someone with a YouTube page regurgitating models every video or some random individual on social media without a meteorology degree and some real experience in the field to substantiate that forecast and I think that's the main point of his statement. But hey to each their own, I guess.
Yep, agreed. There's a big difference between a weather discussion forum vs pro mets or anyone acting like a pro met on youtube or instagram. It's a big responsibility, once you declare yourself an "expert" in a public setting, considering the public planning, property and even sometimes life threatening conditions you can encounter with weather. I really like your point re: pro mets admitting mistakes, this is really lacking these days likely due to the threat of other sources the public can go to besides the NWS or TV mets. Personally, I trust people more when they can admit mistakes...we're all human after all (everyone will make mistakes) and weather forecasting is probably one of the most humbling professions out there. Admit you got the forecast wrong/aspects you learned from it/educate the public on why you missed the forecast and then move on!
Unless I'm missing some sort of sacrasm in Spann's post, he's part of the problem by declaring no significant weather events over the next 10 days. That's insane considering he's in the deep south in late Feb/Early March - this isn't mid summer under a massive heat dome!!!
Cpv17 wrote:txtwister78 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Some people with met degrees don’t know jack. Plenty of em out there.
Lol. Well, that's a pretty broad statement there my friend. Not sure specifically who you're referring to but good luck in any field finding 100% perfection but that alone shouldn't discredit the entire field. Forecasting weather despite all our technology advances and resources can still be a complex challenge at times as we've all witnessed with so many moving pieces to it and often as I've stated on here before just our general location/geographic variables alone.
I referenced forecast misses above and the importance I think of being as transparent as possible with the public and not just before or during the forecasted event, but perhaps more importantly now the after-action post event summary in terms of what was known and perhaps not known by the forecaster to educate and at the same time improve trust?
There’s some people I trust more without met degrees than some who actually have them. Just because you have a degree doesn’t mean anything. Same goes for any field of work.
txtwister78 wrote:orangeblood wrote:txtwister78 wrote:
I get his point overall. Heck some do it on here in terms of putting up models and talking about "possibilities" 10 days out. The big difference here is it's just honest discussion/debate and we're not trying to make money off it or intentionally mislead anyone like some of these other folks do for the purpose of getting more traffic/clicks as he describes.
On the other hand, I also feel it's ok for mets to admit mistakes in forecast and I think that would go a long way toward making some of these public service statements more effective to the general public at large. Spann has built up a lot of trust within his community and even nationally to some degree to where this statement I think carries a bit more weight across the weather community, but having said that, with social media being what it is today and with YouTube so called "weather enthusiast" popping up all over, I think that ship has largely sailed, and Mets are going to have just have to roll with it and hope people tune in to those trusted sources for them when it counts the most.
I've always said if you like pages like the POW Ponder guy (not picking on just him) or others with their big bold catchy headlines, hey have at it, but don't be surprised or disappointed when what they're selling changes for the worse or on the other end doesn't end up verifying more times than not and yet people will still go back for more? My view is (despite some of my own personal knowledge of weather) if I'm facing a weather event that has a risk of life and/or property associated with it, I'm probably not going to rely on someone with a YouTube page regurgitating models every video or some random individual on social media without a meteorology degree and some real experience in the field to substantiate that forecast and I think that's the main point of his statement. But hey to each their own, I guess.
Yep, agreed. There's a big difference between a weather discussion forum vs pro mets or anyone acting like a pro met on youtube or instagram. It's a big responsibility, once you declare yourself an "expert" in a public setting, considering the public planning, property and even sometimes life threatening conditions you can encounter with weather. I really like your point re: pro mets admitting mistakes, this is really lacking these days likely due to the threat of other sources the public can go to besides the NWS or TV mets. Personally, I trust people more when they can admit mistakes...we're all human after all (everyone will make mistakes) and weather forecasting is probably one of the most humbling professions out there. Admit you got the forecast wrong/aspects you learned from it/educate the public on why you missed the forecast and then move on!
Unless I'm missing some sort of sacrasm in Spann's post, he's part of the problem by declaring no significant weather events over the next 10 days. That's insane considering he's in the deep south in late Feb/Early March - this isn't mid summer under a massive heat dome!!!
Perhaps he shouldn't have gone that far out to make that call, but I also give him a bit of a pass in that the guy has been doing this for 40 years plus (so called old timer) back in the day when models weren't really a thing and mets had to rely more on pattern recognition and old school forecasting. So, to me it reads different from a guy like him. I'm not suggesting he's perfect, but I would give guys like him who have been in the field for a long time the benefit of the doubt.
Completely agree with your first point.
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