Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8661 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:05 pm

Down to 30 IMBY, so rapidly falling.

It's just a race of how far will it dry out before things can stick? Already seeing dry pavement in spots.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8662 Postby wxman22 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:12 pm

You can see the localized snow bands on this radar.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/? ... 00-usa-rad
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8663 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:20 pm

:double:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8664 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:23 pm

We've been getting some decent rain showers here in Austin and it looks like the front is about to move through the city soon. Are we expecting this rain to come to a screeching halt once it blows through? It seems like the temp is dropping like a rock right behind it. I love my moisture, however I hope things dry out before we hit freezing. :sick:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8665 Postby wxman22 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:30 pm

Snow still coming down good here. And accumulating fast!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8666 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:35 pm

JDawg512 wrote:We've been getting some decent rain showers here in Austin and it looks like the front is about to move through the city soon. Are we expecting this rain to come to a screeching halt once it blows through? It seems like the temp is dropping like a rock right behind it. I love my moisture, however I hope things dry out before we hit freezing. :sick:


Should be ok. Some models like the 3km NAM try to bring a little freezing drizzle in at midnight but NWS didn't mention it in their AFD so they don't seem to be too concerned. Would be very quick in duration though and wind should also help to minimize or dry whatever does manage to fall (If anything) but still something to keep an eye on just in case overnight into early morning hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8667 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:37 pm

https://www.weather.gov/fwd

The returns by WF, is that what might get DFW later on?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8668 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:49 pm

https://streamable.com/ov226s

Its trying but it's a mighty struggle with the wind... Probably barely an inch here

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8669 Postby Gotwood » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:52 pm

Took a while but temps finally starting to free fall down to 25 IMBY now hit 32 around 1:45ish
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8670 Postby Gotwood » Tue Feb 18, 2025 5:55 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:https://www.weather.gov/fwd

The returns by WF, is that what might get DFW later on?

I’m praying it pushes our way. My area is in a dry lull right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8671 Postby BTAYLOR5021 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:00 pm

NWS DFW twitter mentioned possibly of LES this evening around area lakes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8672 Postby TomballEd » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:02 pm

SPC RAP based analysis has elevated CAPE around 500 J/Kg, not great, HRRR is between 500 and 1000J/Kg above the stable surface layer. Shear is 60 knots, not bad.

The storms approaching Houston from the SW may have small hail, which is as close to winter precip as we are likely to get. I can't post images from work. I can't see most images either.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8673 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:14 pm

If it does happen, it will be when the upper shortwave comes across and moistens the mid levels, then it's up to the wind blowing persistently near the surface.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8674 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:32 pm

Think we we get a warmup / thaw out for about a week after this Arctic blast , but already by day 9-10 on the GFS and ensembles, we see the EPO going negative again and the TPV setting up around hudson bay with a deep trough setting up over the central US, MJO going into 1-2-3 late february and first week of march, think it wont be until the 2nd half of march where spring takes hold, until then, Winter holds all the cards in the deck
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8675 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:38 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Think we we get a warmup / thaw out for about a week after this Arctic blast , but already by day 9-10 on the GFS and ensembles, we see the EPO going negative again and the TPV setting up around hudson bay with a deep trough setting up over the central US, MJO going into 1-2-3 late february and first week of march, think it wont be until the 2nd half of march where spring takes hold, until then, Winter holds all the cards in the deck


One thing about the +PNA, it's hard to keep sustained warmth when flow is NW. We'll definitely get periods given it's late February climo but it may underachieve from the long range to medium range, until the next colder regime.
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8676 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:42 pm

Down to 27 so getting into danger zone.

Just may not be wet enough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8677 Postby wxman22 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:47 pm

Still getting moderate snow here! The wonderful thing is that the snow will stick around for a few days. :froze:

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Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8678 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:56 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Down to 27 so getting into danger zone.

Just may not be wet enough.


That's a good thing. Hopefully it stays that way. Doesn't take much though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8679 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:57 pm

wxman22 wrote:Still getting moderate snow here! The wonderful thing is that the snow will stick around for a few days. :froze:

https://i.postimg.cc/N0Q3r4kn/IMG-0983.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/yYqqh9h7/IMG-0985.jpg


Does the cold up there feel different from the cold down here?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8680 Postby GeauxTigers » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:58 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Down to 27 so getting into danger zone.

Just may not be wet enough.


Are we supposed to be getting more drizzle/misting tonight?
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