Texas Winter 2024-2025

[bubba hotep]

FWD introduced the word "snow" into the forecast for next Wednesday

[wxman22]

The threshold for hazardous temps must be more than just 32 degrees up here at least.If that was the case we would have had hazardous temps outlooks most of winter here this year. As we have received officially 34 freezes so far this season.

32 degrees or lower may be normal in January or even late December for many areas but later in February for certain regions it's not and thus the designation. If you put a freeze down into the lower RGV for example this late into the season, that could be hazardous for crops/farming etc. CPC own website defines it as "risk of below normal temps with minimum temp of freezing to subfreezing".

I agree for places further south those are hazardous temps. I was specifically speaking for my area and up into the Midwest where 32 degrees in February is nothing special.So I would believe there has to be different criteria for those outlooks based on specific area climo. We are at 32 degrees currently with a forecast low of 18 tonight. And 19 Saturday night.

[gpsnowman]

FWD introduced the word "snow" into the forecast for next Wednesday

They've been hinting at it without mentioning the word snow the last couple of days. Nice to see them mention it.

[txtwister78]

The threshold for hazardous temps must be more than just 32 degrees up here at least.If that was the case we would have had hazardous temps outlooks most of winter here this year. As we have received officially 34 freezes so far this season.

32 degrees or lower may be normal in January or even late December for many areas but later in February for certain regions it's not and thus the designation. If you put a freeze down into the lower RGV for example this late into the season, that could be hazardous for crops/farming etc. CPC own website defines it as "risk of below normal temps with minimum temp of freezing to subfreezing".

I agree for places further south those are hazardous temps. I was specifically speaking for my area and up into the Midwest where 32 degrees in February is nothing special.So I would believe there has to be different criteria for those outlooks based on specific area climo. We are at 32 degrees currently with a forecast low of 18 tonight. And 19 Saturday night.

Yeah I can see your point regarding different regions where that's more common, but unfortunately their description is the same on their website for the designation of the term hazardous. "Much below normal" doesn't really help me for example either if I'm looking at that without any real weather knowledge of what my norms are for this time of year but that's another term they use. I think that's why some mets don't like using it.

[wxman22]

12Z EURO finally LOL

[HockeyTx82]

12Z EURO finally LOL

https://i.ibb.co/V0yjQb47/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-50-1.png

https://i.ibb.co/yBRZWRF9/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-51-1.png

https://i.ibb.co/4v7Y67J/ecmwf-T2m-scus-57.png

And that would be some hazardous temperatures.

Sorry I asked earlier. Did not mean to start a flame war.

[Stratton23]

Euro looks like a blend of the CMC/ ICON temperature wise, kinda funny given the euro is usually the warmest global mode when it comes to arctic airmasses

[Ntxw]

The overcast skies never really allowed much of a warm up in NTX today. Was steady in the mid 40s and now fallen post reinforcing cold air. Hard freeze, one more attempt to warm up Saturday for a few hours before another reinforcing shot. Nothing extreme but we will be racking up the HDDs with persistent chill after about a 8-10 day warm stretch of MC MJO to start the month.

[Texas Snowman]

As I and others have repeatedly stated, Feb 2021 was a once in a lifetime benchmark weather event.

Actually, December 1983 and February 2021 were virtually identical (overall length, lowest temperature and snowfall) here in the Red River Valley. I know firsthand because I was a high school senior in one and a 50-something year old grandpa in the other. So I suppose they were actually twice in a lifetime events here in North Texas.

[Portastorm]

I read with interest over the last few days how temp forecasts busted badly in North Texas. That happened today in my area. We were supposed to be in the mid 70s based on what most of the modeling showed. We ended up barely climbing above 50°. It was only the meso models that clued in to this possible bust and that occurred only hours before.

All of this to say that I don’t have a lot of confidence in what the global are showing as of late. Cold, shallow air always confounds and wins out. Next week should be interesting for many of us.

[Stratton23]

18z Euro goes out to 144 hours, just finished looking at it, righr away some noticeable changes compared to the 12z run, core of the arctic air is centered a little more westward, but the barney colors are much more expansive south and west , i have no doubt if it went beyond 144 hours it would be a big run

[wxman22]

Looking at a more detailed version of the 12Z Euro run, and it actually shows an ice storm all the way down into the Hill Country. Fwiw

[wxman22]

[Quixotic]

Looks fairly light, precip wise. Cold is the real deal though.

[orangeblood]

When you see the CPC temp hazard guidance put out graphics like that, time to pay attention…it’s showing something extreme is on the table and that’s what the Euro is going towards.

35-50 F below normal across central US into south plains

[txtwister78]

Actually, December 1983 and February 2021 were virtually identical (overall length, lowest temperature and snowfall) here in the Red River Valley. I know firsthand because I was a high school senior in one and a 50-something year old grandpa in the other. So I suppose they were actually twice in a lifetime events here in North Texas.

Oh yeah, I'm sure you can pick a few years in the 80's that mimic 2021 in some way for a specific region, but I still think they don't rival the widespread overall impactful weather we experienced across the entire state then (including the power outages unfortunately).

The 80's definitely had several big-ticket events temp wise (83, 85 and 89 etc) no question similar to 2021 (89 was colder) as you mentioned and some of those had more snowfall/winter precip in certain regions included (85 snowstorm across SC TX for example) but 2021 I think was so unique in that every single county was under a WSW at one time. That's never happened before and likely won't again for quite some time.

So yeah, I can tell you having experienced 14 inches of snow in San Antonio in 1985, I certainly would count that as an historic once in a lifetime weather event for my area, but because that event was more regional and not as impactful statewide other than the colder temps further north, I would still rate 2021 differently overall in terms of statewide public impact.

[Stratton23]

orangeblood 18z euro has a 1055 mb high in Wyoming, 12z was 1053, trended colder at least in the central plains

[wxman22]

There's also a decent signal on the NBM for snow in North Texas next week, especially when you consider the range. I see why OUN added a 30% chance of rain/snow to the forecast on Tuesday.

[Ntxw]

Did some digging and late February for DFW to get to near 'record' cold would be lows in the mid to upper teens. It's not as dramatic as the first week or two, so anything below 20F would do it. As for highs upper 20s and lower 30s. So what the Euro and ICON are showing, if it comes to pass, would be pretty impressive relative to data records.

[gpsnowman]

orangeblood 18z euro has a 1055 mb high in Wyoming, 12z was 1053, trended colder at least in the central plains

Now we get another Euro in a few hours to see if the trend continues. Also today is the anniversary of the coldest temp ever recorded in DFW. The temp fell to -8 on February 12, 1899. I remember it well.