Texas Winter 2024-2025

[JDawg512]

What a lovely day in the ATX, Now this is my kind of weather for a nice walk.

[Brent]

Winter Weather Advisory here for late tonight and tomorrow... Kind of surprised they pulled the trigger as it's very borderline i think but we'll see

[Cpv17]

Woah CPC forecast!

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 already a moderate risk of hazardous cold temperatures issued by the CPC for almost the entire state, thats really surprising

[wxman22]

Moderate risk for hazardous temps next week.

[gpsnowman]

:cold: Moderate risk for hazardous temps next week.

https://i.ibb.co/pvDMdRwN/IMG-0235.png

https://i.ibb.co/BK7hVdvp/IMG-0234.gif

This lines up with the storm maps from 12z. Excellent.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS Amarillo

Light amounts of freezing drizzle are forecast to occur tonight into tomorrow morning. While accumulation amounts are light, keep in mind just a thin layer of ice can cause hazardous driving conditions, and travel should be taken with caution, especially when driving into lower visibility areas, that may have light ice accumulations. Behind the front, cold conditions will continue across the area. North winds gusting to around 20mph will allow the wind chills to feel like the single digits to even some negative wind chills at times Wednesday morning. Overall, it will be another cold, raw day across the Panhandles. Very cold conditions will occur Thursday morning. Overnight lows will dip into the single digits across the northern combined Panhandles, with the lower teens occurring in the southern Texas Panhandle. This, combined with the wind, will allow wind chills to drop near zero to potentially as low as -10 degrees on Thursday morning. Be sure to bundle up if spending any time outdoors Thursday morning.

[Ntxw]

Curious to see what the daily AO values will be, will be more negative than January. Should be up there with the bigger negatives. The +PNA will focus it a little east but it will allow storms to dig rather than shear out. Once the AO starts rising there will probably be an impactful storm across the country with the decaying HB block.

[gpsnowman]

Some decent snowpack about to be laid down the next few days. Then hopefully our chance comes next week. Keep the faith!!!

[Brent]

400 pages guys! Can we get to 500 before it's over

Last winter only managed 217 pages what a horrible joke that was

[txtwister78]

If we can cash in late tonight per the HRRR, areas that remain under drought will receive around 2-2.5 inches of rain from this event when combined with the rain received earlier today. Hopefully that verifies.

[JDawg512]

If we can cash in late tonight per the HRRR, areas that remain under drought will receive around 2-2.5 inches of rain from this event when combined with the rain received earlier today. Hopefully that verifies.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/refc/1739304000/1739343600-Peui8m8btdQ.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/austin_sa/total_precip_inch/1739304000/1739358000-iQASLFCGEQ0.png

I've received 2.66 inches of rain here at the Rain Cave so far so I'd say that map is off a bit. South Austin was right under that training line of storms.

[txtwister78]

If we can cash in late tonight per the HRRR, areas that remain under drought will receive around 2-2.5 inches of rain from this event when combined with the rain received earlier today. Hopefully that verifies.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/refc/1739304000/1739343600-Peui8m8btdQ.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/austin_sa/total_precip_inch/1739304000/1739358000-iQASLFCGEQ0.png

I've received 2.66 inches of rain here at the Rain Cave so far so I'd say that map is off a bit. South Austin was right under that training line of storms.

That's a future cast prediction for tonight and it doesn't include rain that has already fallen.

[Stratton23]

Todays ICON 12z run showed temperature anomalies next week as much as 40-50 degrees below normal in the central plains and 40-45 degrees below normal in texas, we havent seen anything that strong this winter and we have certainly had some good cold snaps, that model usually does very well at seeing the cold air, something to watch, the polar vortex is splitting, while its not the most likely scenario right now, i do think their is potential for the cold air to be alot more significant than what current guidance depicts, time will tell

[Cpv17]

Todays ICON 12z run showed temperature anomalies next week as much as 40-50 degrees below normal in the central plains and 40-45 degrees below normal in texas, we havent seen anything that strong this winter and we have certainly had some good cold snaps, that model usually does very well at seeing the cold air, something to watch, the polar vortex is splitting, while its not the most likely scenario right now, i do think their is potential for the cold air to be alot more significant than what current guidance depicts, time will tell

Man, I would love that.

[txtwister78]

Todays ICON 12z run showed temperature anomalies next week as much as 40-50 degrees below normal in the central plains and 40-45 degrees below normal in texas, we havent seen anything that strong this winter and we have certainly had some good cold snaps, that model usually does very well at seeing the cold air, something to watch, the polar vortex is splitting, while its not the most likely scenario right now, i do think their is potential for the cold air to be alot more significant than what current guidance depicts, time will tell

I don't see it right now for three reasons.

1. Pattern continues to be too progressive with just enough pacific air mixing in further south to moderate temps so nothing earth shattering holds as a result. That's your calendar effect.

2. Teleconnections while favorable for some cold, EPO is hovering around neutral to slightly positive but PNA going positive next wk (especially with Euro) and that would direct core of the cold further east with time should that verify.

3. As we move further into February our temp norms continue to rise the further south you go into Texas so it's going to take something big (1050 high into plains etc) to deliver the type of cold deep into TX that the ICON is indicating. Too far out to believe it. Heck it's colder than the CMC so yeah haha.

I think we're likely to see this roller-coaster type pattern continue but nothing that says dam bursting cold yet. Pattern may stay active into March but by then you're talking about cool vs cold outside of Panhandle region perhaps

[Cpv17]

Todays ICON 12z run showed temperature anomalies next week as much as 40-50 degrees below normal in the central plains and 40-45 degrees below normal in texas, we havent seen anything that strong this winter and we have certainly had some good cold snaps, that model usually does very well at seeing the cold air, something to watch, the polar vortex is splitting, while its not the most likely scenario right now, i do think their is potential for the cold air to be alot more significant than what current guidance depicts, time will tell

I don't see it right now for three reasons.

1. Pattern continues to be too progressive with just enough pacific air mixing in further south to moderate temps so nothing earth shattering holds as a result. That's your calendar effect.

2. Teleconnections while favorable for some cold, EPO is hovering around neutral to slightly positive but PNA going positive next wk (especially with Euro) and that would direct core of the cold further east with time should that verify.

3. As we move further into February our temp norms continue to rise the further south you go into Texas so it's going to take something big (1050 high into plains etc) to deliver the type of cold that the ICON is indicating. Too far out to believe it. Heck it's colder than the CMC so yeah haha.

I think we're likely to see this roller-coaster type pattern continue but nothing that says dam bursting cold. Pattern may stay active into March but by then you're talking about cool vs cold.

Sir, I must say, you’re mighty good at killing a buzz lol

[Stratton23]

I guess we will see which model does the best with this next round of arctic air, come on ICON, give me that brutal stuff!

[txtwister78]

Todays ICON 12z run showed temperature anomalies next week as much as 40-50 degrees below normal in the central plains and 40-45 degrees below normal in texas, we havent seen anything that strong this winter and we have certainly had some good cold snaps, that model usually does very well at seeing the cold air, something to watch, the polar vortex is splitting, while its not the most likely scenario right now, i do think their is potential for the cold air to be alot more significant than what current guidance depicts, time will tell

I don't see it right now for three reasons.

1. Pattern continues to be too progressive with just enough pacific air mixing in further south to moderate temps so nothing earth shattering holds as a result. That's your calendar effect.

2. Teleconnections while favorable for some cold, EPO is hovering around neutral to slightly positive but PNA going positive next wk (especially with Euro) and that would direct core of the cold further east with time should that verify.

3. As we move further into February our temp norms continue to rise the further south you go into Texas so it's going to take something big (1050 high into plains etc) to deliver the type of cold that the ICON is indicating. Too far out to believe it. Heck it's colder than the CMC so yeah haha.

I think we're likely to see this roller-coaster type pattern continue but nothing that says dam bursting cold. Pattern may stay active into March but by then you're talking about cool vs cold.

Sir, I must say, you’re mighty good at killing a buzz lol

Lol! Just trying to keep everything into perspective with what all the players on the field indicate as opposed to looking at a model run here or there. Better question to ask is does it make sense with what all the moving pieces within a given pattern...but If I'm wrong I'll be right here to say so.

But hey if you don't like more 80's in February it's not a bad pattern. I just think for areas further south into TX our fun ended in January. Panhandle and areas from DFW north typically have a little more runway later into February than we do.

[jasons2k]

I guess we will see which model does the best with this next round of arctic air, come on ICON, give me that brutal stuff!

I’ve been trying to tell you for years now to give-up on the model worshipping. It kills you every time.

You have to interpret *why* the models do what they do in the first place, not fixating on outputs. If the basic physics don’t hold water, the model output will only get you so far.

Most of this is getting shunted off to the east as we get some Pacific air entrained. We could still see a light freeze in SE Texas late next week out of this, but that’s about it for any winter “fun” south of the infamous Highway 1*5.