Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

GFS OP trended away from a positive EPO back to negative/neutral EPO again, entire run cold air is getting drained out of canada, its not over, also the CMC is going to run laps around the GFS next week, you can bet on that hahaha

Is this the same CMC that had -10 for College Station a couple of weeks ago?

Here's the GFS forecast from 72 hours ago....that's a 30-40F temperature bust from DFW to OKC from 72 hours out. GFS is horrendous in these setups!
https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2025020218/075/sfct-imp.us_sc.png

[Ntxw]

Still in the low to mid 40s with drizzle. These forecasts the past few days sure have been busting.

Yep for the northern stretches, and next week will be brutally cold air sitting in the northern plains. The 500mb flow in the southern tier is causing fits for the models. There may be some busts next week if that cold wins from the north.

[gpsnowman]

Still a misty foggy 54 at DFW airport. If the warm front doesn't swing back up we will get nowhere near 70 degrees today according to the latest NWS graphic. Yesterday, today was supposed to be near 80.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yeah the 12z Euro came back much colder, finally doesnt keep the cold air bottled up and gets dumped south into the central plains, better - EPO ridging as well

[Ntxw]

Ntxw yeah the 12z Euro came back much colder, finally doesnt keep the cold air bottled up and gets dumped south into the central plains, better - EPO ridging as well

Early week after Sunday's front the surface cold does the same thing it's doing this week. It bleeds and then gets stuck and struggles to climb from lower elevation to higher elevation in W-Texas. I-20 north stays chilly. Same stuff, same physics.

Looks like another great case of learning topography, analogs, and physics over modeling.

[orangeblood]

Ntxw yeah the 12z Euro came back much colder, finally doesnt keep the cold air bottled up and gets dumped south into the central plains, better - EPO ridging as well

It fits the Analogs, expect major forecast busts over the next 2 weeks

These 5 day averages continue to get colder and further south, that Houston wall needs some reinforcements

[Stratton23]

And Bastardi just changed his tune again on X, posted the Euro run, talking about dam bursting in texas again lol

[wxman22]

12z EURO

[Ntxw]

Still a misty foggy 54 at DFW airport. If the warm front doesn't swing back up we will get nowhere near 70 degrees today according to the latest NWS graphic. Yesterday, today was supposed to be near 80.

It has come through Hillsboro with gusts over 20mph from the south. It will be slow to make it north but it will. We will be warm tomorrow but for how long until the cold front comes through back south.

[Stratton23]

That is a much colder 12z EPS, not dam bursting yet, byt a much better 500 mb setup for the dam to potentially burst in texas….

[orangeblood]

That is a much colder 12z EPS, not dam bursting yet, byt a much better 500 mb setup for the dam to potentially burst in texas….

Major Cold Air Damming against spine of Rockies showing up now on Ensembles, the weight alone of that kind of dense cold air piling up with force itself south regardless of 5h flow. Buckle Up, it’s the most entertaining time of year…forecast bust season!

[Edwards Limestone]

High of 88 forecasted here on Saturday

[Sambucol2024]

That is a much colder 12z EPS, not dam bursting yet, byt a much better 500 mb setup for the dam to potentially burst in texas….

Major Cold Air Damming against spine of Rockies showing up now on Ensembles, the weight alone of that kind of dense cold air piling up with force itself south regardless of 5h flow. Buckle Up, it’s the most entertaining time of year…forecast bust season!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1738756800/1739383200-dWZl71QIP1U.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1738756800/1739383200-SbRp2jXiqRU.png

Will this make it to the Texas coast?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 with that kind of trough orientation as well as the -EPO ridge and the AO tanking with a - NAO, bigger cold air gets pressed up against the rockies and builds, thats eventually going to burst and dive all the way down to mexico, that kind of a build up of cold sir would completely overwhelm any sw flow trying to push it back

[Sambucol2024]

Sambucol2024 with that kind of trough orientation as well as the -EPO ridge and the AO tanking with a - NAO, bigger cold air gets pressed up against the rockies and builds, thats eventually going to burst and dive all the way down to mexico, that kind of a build up of cold sir would completely overwhelm any sw flow trying to push it back

I hope that happens!

[Snowman67]

Amarillo at 81F and Childress at 49F. That's not something you see every day.

[Quixotic]

Here on the 380, warm front is through. Went from 52 to 67 in the past couple of hours.

While on the subject, my kids school has a Davis station. I’m jelly.

[jasons2k]

Shaping up to be a bad ice storm for DFW. Some folks here in SE Texas are gonna be screaming mad in disbelief at how “close” Jack Frost came to paying us a visit.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Shaping up to be a bad ice storm for DFW. Some folks here in SE Texas are gonna be screaming mad in disbelief at how “close” Jack Frost came to paying us a visit.

It very well may make it to me and Houston could be several degrees warmer.

[Quixotic]

Shaping up to be a bad ice storm for DFW. Some folks here in SE Texas are gonna be screaming mad in disbelief at how “close” Jack Frost came to paying us a visit.

Sleet I’m ok with. Negative on freezing rain.