Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

The pretty maps are good for a quick overview. If you can read skewT charts you can much more accurately get an idea of what precip types may actually occur.
PSA to others: models do not depict precip types, that is based on the individual site's algorithm.

I appreciate y'all pointing this out because this is something I was unaware of until a couple of days ago when it was brought up.

In studying this event (mostly using Pivotal), I have seen some crazy precip type outputs that seriously conflicted with the temp profile of the column.

[txtwister78]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

The pretty maps are good for a quick overview. If you can read skewT charts you can much more accurately get an idea of what precip types may actually occur.
PSA to others: models do not depict precip types, that is based on the individual site's algorithm.

I appreciate y'all pointing this out because this is something I was unaware of until a couple of days ago when it was brought up.

Honestly think this may be one of those events if you can find it where using the "total snowfall" accumulation feature (Pivotal has it) or even snow depth might be more helpful to get a more accurate depiction of what actual snowfall accumulations might look like (at least on elevated and grassy surfaces) with temps being around the 32-33 degree range. Pivotal does a good job of explaining that simply using the 10:1 standard doesn't account for sleet and melting getting involved.

[rwfromkansas]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

So are the soundings on sites like Pivotal directly from the model, or are they the site's interpretation like the snow maps?

[downsouthman1]

As we speak, snow squalls moving into S NM from Old Mexico.

Same energy that's heading our way.

[Ntxw]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

So are the soundings on sites like Pivotal directly from the model, or are they the site's interpretation like the snow maps?

The soundings are what the model is projecting the temperature/moisture up and down the atmosphere. Remember, numerical models don't output raw the colors you see showing sleet/rain/snow. They only output qpf and temps up and down etc. It's up to the website you use on 'best guess' using a criteria they have to depict those shades of beautiful colors to try and show you. The atmosphere isn't static so simply using 540 thickness, or 32F is simply snow (just example) doesn't always work.

[Brent]

Even up here were supposed to mix with sleet and rain and I thought we were gonna be all snow a couple days ago

Still thinking with just wanna beat last winters inch or two being the best storm

[orangeblood]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

Mathematical formulas don't do well in a setup like this

FYI, GFS sounding coming around for DFW...now all snow at all levels until around 6pm tomorrow evening where there's a small warm nose above freezing. Doesn't last long though.

For those interested, DFW GFS soundings:

3pm Thursday


6pm Thursday


9pm Thursday


12am Friday

[txtwister78]

Good news for Cotton Bowl travelers and those locally, Cotton Bowl Playoff Game will go on as planned per announcement from officials with temps predicted to be several degrees above freezing by noon Friday so whatever does fall should melt quickly.

[orangeblood]

Good news for Cotton Bowl travelers and those locally, Cotton Bowl Playoff Game will go on as planned per announcement from officials with temps predicted to be several degrees above freezing by noon Friday so whatever does fall should melt quickly.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

Mathematical formulas don't do well in a setup like this

FYI, GFS sounding coming around for DFW...now all snow at all levels until around 6pm tomorrow evening where there's a small warm nose above freezing. Doesn't last long though.

For those interested, DFW GFS soundings:

3pm Thursday
https://images.weatherbell.com/sounding/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/sounding/1736337600/1736456400-EMNGB7UYQcs.png

6pm Thursday
https://images.weatherbell.com/sounding/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/sounding/1736337600/1736467200-7uoJmGYAuGo.png

9pm Thursday
https://images.weatherbell.com/sounding/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/sounding/1736337600/1736478000-Dsn85pXEDN8.png

12am Friday
https://images.weatherbell.com/sounding/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/sounding/1736337600/1736488800-3Wp7bwi2GEg.png

With the warm nose so small, is there a chance that falling precipitation would erode/eliminate/cool the warm nose much like it would at the surface, ie wet bulb-ish?

[Winter_Wisher]

Will someone please think of the kids and their sleds!

[snownado]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

Mathematical formulas don't do well in a setup like this

FYI, GFS sounding coming around for DFW...now all snow at all levels until around 6pm tomorrow evening where there's a small warm nose above freezing. Doesn't last long though.

For those interested, DFW GFS soundings:

3pm Thursday
https://images.weatherbell.com/sounding/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/sounding/1736337600/1736456400-EMNGB7UYQcs.png

6pm Thursday
https://images.weatherbell.com/sounding/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/sounding/1736337600/1736467200-7uoJmGYAuGo.png

9pm Thursday
https://images.weatherbell.com/sounding/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/sounding/1736337600/1736478000-Dsn85pXEDN8.png

12am Friday
https://images.weatherbell.com/sounding/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/sounding/1736337600/1736488800-3Wp7bwi2GEg.png

With the warm nose so small, is there a chance that falling precipitation would erode/eliminate/cool the warm nose much like it would at the surface, ie wet bulb-ish?

Yes, but it's a crap shoot.

[gboudx]

Good news for Cotton Bowl travelers and those locally, Cotton Bowl Playoff Game will go on as planned per announcement from officials with temps predicted to be several degrees above freezing by noon Friday so whatever does fall should melt quickly.

Just be careful when leaving the game at night, any residual water will likely refreeze on overpasses and bridges.

[orangeblood]

With the warm nose so small, is there a chance that falling precipitation would erode/eliminate/cool the warm nose much like it would at the surface, ie wet bulb-ish?

Yes, this is why this event has an extremely high ceiling like some of the Euro ENS individual members have been showing. It doesn't take much with these marginal mid layer temps particularly if the DG Zone gets cranking, it'll cool down the layers below it quickly with heavy snow all the way down to the surface

[bubba hotep]

The Euro isn't backing down. Euro & Canadian say Collin County will be the DFW winner. Also, FWD point forecast look to keep most above freezing throughout the event.

[SnowintheFalls]

The Euro isn't backing down. Euro & Canadian say Collin County will be the DFW winner. Also, FWD point forecast look to keep most above freezing throughout the event.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2025010812/066/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Euro gives us the best shot at measurable snow in Wichita Falls so I'm down!

[orangeblood]

The Euro and Canadian Ops continue to show heavy qpf moving directly thru the metroplex tomorrow evening (bullseye at the Cotton Bowl). If all layers cool down quick enough, this will thump heavy snow and accumulate rapidly on all surfaces. This likely caused by strong mid-level frontogenesis and isentropic ascent thru the DG Zone

Something to monitor closely on the short range guidance later this evening and tomorrow

[Ntxw]

The Euro isn't backing down. Euro & Canadian say Collin County will be the DFW winner. Also, FWD point forecast look to keep most above freezing throughout the event.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2025010812/066/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Will take my 6 and call it a winter! Come on March!

[Stratton23]

No thank you, winter can stick around lol

[Ntxw]

No thank you, winter can stick around lol

GFS and Euro been doing stuff with cold outbreaks 15th-25th centered around the 20th. We've seen it many times, while it doesn't always pan out as they portray in the long range, it's usually a sign that something might occur.