Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Quixotic]

NWS updated forecasts before the models began improving again recently.

Updated in last hour. No discussion yet

Yup, mine went to crap too.

My condolences

[rwfromkansas]

My wife's family in Abilene is getting zip, which is unusual. I remember a few holidays there where they had great snow over Christmas and DFW was rain.

[HockeyTx82]

Updated in last hour. No discussion yet

Yup, mine went to crap too.

My condolences

Well their new graphics that just dropped at 4:00 p.m. don't match the forecast so not sure what's going on.

[Texas Snow]

My daughter was supposed to fly back Thursday morning, which I was beginning to think would be fine, but after the model trend changes again I just told her nobody has any flipping idea right now so she’s coming home tomorrow night and we can hope to watch the snow fall all day.

[foulbeast]

[Texas Snow]

I wonder if they wanted to hit the delete button rather than SUBMIT seeing the afternoon 18Z guidance come in since it sounds like they banked everything on 12z. I was hoping for some clarity but looks like more model watching this evening…



LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

We`ll start off the long term forecast with a blast of winter.
Another digging trough will move south across the western US while
the aforementioned closed cut-off low will de-amplify into an open
wave over NW Mexico and far West Texas late Wednesday into Thursday.
The wave will eventually become absorbed into the incoming trough as
they both begin to swing across the Southern Plains early Thursday,
spreading increased forcing for ascent across the region. On the
eastern periphery of the trough, increased moisture will eventually
surge northward and work in tandem with the lift to allow for a
blossoming of precipitation chances early Thursday morning. This is
a bit later than previous forecasts as recent guidance has slightly
slower system movement as compared to the last few days.

The frigid overnight temperatures will aid in a wide variety of
precipitation types, making for a continued challenging forecast. As
compared to the previous few days, the latest 12Z model runs have
come in slightly warmer, which will have implications on just where
the rain/wintry mix/snow lines will fall and snowfall totals.
Forecast soundings now show a slightly more pronounced warm nose
aloft further north towards the I-20 corridor, which will decrease
snow amounts across a good portion of the region, and will increase
confidence of light ice accumulations. As a result, there are three
big changes that have been made with this afternoon`s update: we`ve
lowered snowfall totals due to the slightly warmer temperatures both
at the surface and aloft, we`ve increased the area of possible light
ice accumulations northward, and we have pushed the wintry mix
transition line north of the I-20 corridor.

Currently, more of Central Texas will not see snowfall, especially
south of a Palestine-Beverly Hills-Copperas Cove line, though we
cannot rule out some sleet mixing in with the raindrops. Most
likely rainfall totals across North Texas up towards the US-380
corridor are between 1-2", with 2-4" possible closer towards the
Red River. Ice accumulations up to 1/10" are possible across a
majority of the region, aside from far south Central Texas where
the main precipitation type is more likely a cold rain.

All this to say, travel will become hazardous Thursday through at
least Friday morning, with impacts potentially lasting into the
afternoon hours on Friday. Roads will become slick, particularly
untreated roads and elevated bridges/roadways. Additionally, any
melting that occurs during the afternoons over the late week will
refreeze during the overnight periods, causing lingering impacts
until more substantial melting occurs.

The apex of the trough will cross our region on Friday, ushering out
the precipitation chances over the early parts of the day. Cloud
cover will be slower to exit, and highs will likely only get into
the 30s and 40s. Thankfully, we`ll see a gradual warming trend over
the weekend and into next week as highs rebound into the 40s and 50s
and lows into the mid-upper 20s into the low-mid 30s.

Prater

[Quixotic]

Soundings showed a warm nose

[Fifty Rock]

My wife's family in Abilene is getting zip, which is unusual. I remember a few holidays there where they had great snow over Christmas and DFW was rain.

I’m almost willing to bet DFW doesn’t pan out on this either.

[HockeyTx82]

"Most likely rainfall totals across North Texas up towards the US-380 corridor are between 1-2", with 2-4" possible closer towards the Red River. Ice accumulations up to 1/10" are possible across a majority of the region, aside from far south Central Texas where
the main precipitation type is more likely a cold rain."

Rainfall totals. Is that a typo?

[txtwister78]

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full1.jpg

Based on trends another responsible forecast by NWS up there in DFW. Becoming clearer where the best axis of heavier snow is going to be establishing itself (areas along Red River, Southern/Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas) with a brief transition to all snow into DFW perhaps before the precip ends. What a difference 48 hours makes but again not too surprised by this outcome considering all the dynamics at play here. Hopefully our friends up north will cash in on a little snow though. After all this, you guys deserve something.

[wxman22]

For us in the Wichita falls area there appears to be two camps of models, one camp dry slots us quickly by the afternoon as the system ramps up with just a few light snow showers.While the other camp of models show multiple rounds of snow back building to the west all day Thursday.The storm will be more in range of most of the mesoscale models with the 0z runs tonight. Should provide some clarity on the trends.

[gpsnowman]

Bastardi going with 4-8 for DFW.

[snownado]

18z GFS bumps up totals across DFW

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2025010718/072/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Bleeding seems to have stopped.

It's a start.

[bubba hotep]

Bastardi going with 4-8 for DFW.

Notorious Euro Lover

[txtwister78]

Bastardi going with 4-8 for DFW.

Yeah he had you guys shut down for two to three day less than 24 hours ago. I like Joe, but he has propensity to overhype and he loves to hug the Euro. Risky to do down here. Probably works better across the NE but not in Texas.

[starsfan65]

"Most likely rainfall totals across North Texas up towards the US-380 corridor are between 1-2", with 2-4" possible closer towards the Red River. Ice accumulations up to 1/10" are possible across a majority of the region, aside from far south Central Texas where
the main precipitation type is more likely a cold rain."

Rainfall totals. Is that a typo?

Hockey I think they meant Snowfall.

[wxman22]

I will say that i DO think we will see snow in the Wichita Falls area Thursday. But how much is the question. It could be anything from just a few flurries to 1-3 inches of snow. I will like to see more data before completely leaning one way or the other.

[Quixotic]

And then depression set in…..

[gpsnowman]

Bastardi going with 4-8 for DFW.

Notorious Euro Lover

I'll love it also if those totals pan out.

[WacoWx]

TWC app back to some accumulations in Dallas. 1-3” Thursday, and 1-3” Thursday night!