Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ralph's Weather]

Those WeatherBell maps must be sleet contaminated, because this is what PivotalWeather shows....

https://i.ibb.co/4mVJ93Q/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc.png

Pivotal is showing a lot of precip to fall as rain which does not match the temp profiles on the models.

That's why I suspect those WeatherBell maps aren't accounting for mixed/liquid precipitation.

It's a pretty common issue in these marginal setups.

Pivotal is way over accounting for liquid. that stuff along I-30 should be almost all snow so totals should show much higher.

[losf1981]

22 inches in DFW On the 12z RGEM, good grief!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXi49.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXi49.png

Thought I was SOL in WF on this system?

[HockeyTx82]

Through 30hrs, it looks like the 18z is correcting towards the other models.

What model and correcting which way?

[dhweather]

After this, the ECMWF will either truly be THE KING or be demoted to THE JESTER.

[snownado]

Pivotal is showing a lot of precip to fall as rain which does not match the temp profiles on the models.

That's why I suspect those WeatherBell maps aren't accounting for mixed/liquid precipitation.

It's a pretty common issue in these marginal setups.

Pivotal is way over accounting for liquid. that stuff along I-30 should be almost all snow so totals should show much higher.

I agree it's overestimating liquid.

In all likelihood, it's a lot of sleet in there.

[snownado]

FWD is now only calling for 1-3" in the Metroplex with mixed precipitation, in their update that just came out...

[Ralph's Weather]

FWD is now only calling for 1-3" in the Metroplex with mixed precipitation, in their update that just came out...

https://i.ibb.co/GVvrrpV/image2.jpg

NWS is lessening their forecast totals. Its a tricky situation with a ton of boom and bust potential.

[Ntxw]

After this, the ECMWF will either truly be THE KING or be demoted to THE JESTER.

We can look at some verification. WPC has verification scores and the Euro is consistently the highest at 500mb overall. From Jan 1st you can make your own judgement for today's 500mb results medium range.







Now the surface and localized actual weather results is a different story and a battle tackled before Euro has faults. Different set ups warrant looking at strengths and weakness of different models. During a big high driven arctic outbreak and we will bash the ECMWF to no end .

[HockeyTx82]

FWD is now only calling for 1-3" in the Metroplex with mixed precipitation, in their update that just came out...

https://i.ibb.co/GVvrrpV/image2.jpg

I thought we were seeing a positive look, and they trend down.

Have we just set our expectations too high?

[wxman22]

The NAM came back to its senses.

[WacoWx]

No accumulations now for Dallas per Weather.com. Yesterday at this time it was 8-13". Crazy flip in 24 hours.
But, if someone is saying there's a model coming in 2-4 degrees colder, I will probably believe them.

[snownado]

FWD is now only calling for 1-3" in the Metroplex with mixed precipitation, in their update that just came out...

https://i.ibb.co/GVvrrpV/image2.jpg

I thought we were seeing a positive look, and they trend down.

Have we just set our expectations too high?

00z - 12z models were not positive overall, lol...

But we are now seemingly taking steps in the right direction with the 18z models.

[Stratton23]

Need that coastal low to stay a little more offshore, rain is one thing, but heavy rain and cold? Count me out lol

[gpsnowman]

Feb 2010 was supposed to be 1-3 inches as well.

[snownado]

The NAM came back to its senses.

https://i.ibb.co/w0HB2qG/IMG-0131.png

https://i.ibb.co/PtFcpJQ/IMG-0132.png

https://i.ibb.co/5jHvgBP/IMG-0133.png

Still not great, but it was a step in the right direction.

And stopping any blood loss is good.

[orangeblood]

After this, the ECMWF will either truly be THE KING or be demoted to THE JESTER.

No doubt, it's barely budged from 150 hrs out...would be another feather in its cap that's for sure!!!

[bubba hotep]

18z NAM is a big step back in the right direction. 12z had no snow in Texas or Oklahoma and 18z brings ups the QPF.

[opticsguy]

The NAM came back to its senses.

https://i.ibb.co/w0HB2qG/IMG-0131.png

https://i.ibb.co/PtFcpJQ/IMG-0132.png

https://i.ibb.co/5jHvgBP/IMG-0133.png

Still not great, but it was a step in the right direction.

And stopping any blood loss is good.

More wrap around moisture. Snow is back on the menu boys!

[texsn95]

Any chance of the cold digging down farther and the freeze line getting down to close NW Houston? My daughters want an ice day

[dhweather]

After this, the ECMWF will either truly be THE KING or be demoted to THE JESTER.

No doubt, it's barely budged from 150 hrs out...would be another feather in its cap that's for sure!!!

It has stood on 9-12+ inches several runs, and it may be right or it may be a spectacular bust.