Early Thoughts on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[chaser1]

Happy New Years!
As I ready my firepit for an enjoyable Central Florida chill tonight here's my quick (entirely unscientific) January "hunch" for 2025. Three straight landfalls in August to include Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle. Primary threats being the Bahamas, Florida, & South Carolina. Thereafter, I think we'll see a return to seeing storm tracks recurving east of the CONUS but not without a serious Cat 4 or 5 threat to Puerto Rico and/or Leeward Islands. Otherwise, my gut is that 2025 will also end moderately above average in terms of numbers of named storms.

[cycloneye]

Happy New Years!
As I ready my firepit for an enjoyable Central Florida chill tonight here's my quick (entirely unscientific) January "hunch" for 2025. Three straight landfalls in August to include Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle. Primary threats being the Bahamas, Florida, & South Carolina. Thereafter, I think we'll see a return to seeing storm tracks recurving east of the CONUS but not without a serious Cat 4 or 5 threat to Puerto Rico and/or Leeward Islands. Otherwise, my gut is that 2025 will also end moderately above average in terms of numbers of named storms.

Happy new year to you and welcome back. Begin to think about numbers as this years Storm2k poll will start on March 9th.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Here are my early thoughts:

• There's nothing to indicate the tropical Atlantic rapidly cooling off, nor is there any indication of a robust el nino coming. I think the question will be more how above average than if there will be an above average season.
  
• A hurricane of at least high end cat 4 intensity (150mph+).
  
• A monster late season hurricane
  
• At least one mdr storm in June or July.
  
• The first major hurricane to threaten the East Coast since Dorian in 2019.

[StormWeather]

Here are my early thoughts:

• There's nothing to indicate the tropical Atlantic rapidly cooling off, nor is there any indication of a robust el nino coming. I think the question will be more how above average than if there will be an above average season.
  
• A hurricane of at least high end cat 4 intensity (150mph+).
  
• A monster late season hurricane
  
• At least one mdr storm in June or July.
  
• The first major hurricane to threaten the East Coast since Dorian in 2019.

Yeah, a June MDR storm seems to be the norm now.

2020 had a brief limon in the MDR.

2021 had future Hurricane Elsa form in the MDR on June 30th. Elsa was the earliest 5th named storm on record.

2022 had Bonnie having TS force winds but not a very good circulation so it was a PTC.

2023 had Bret and Cindy, the first time on record that two TC formed in the MDR in June and were active at the same time.

2024 had the freck Hurricane Beryl, which became a extremely rare June Major and the first June MDR Major on record.
———————————————————————— ————————————————————————
What is the atmospheric conditions responsible for this uptick in June MDR activity these last five years?

[WeatherBoy2000]

Here are my early thoughts:

• There's nothing to indicate the tropical Atlantic rapidly cooling off, nor is there any indication of a robust el nino coming. I think the question will be more how above average than if there will be an above average season.
  
• A hurricane of at least high end cat 4 intensity (150mph+).
  
• A monster late season hurricane
  
• At least one mdr storm in June or July.
  
• The first major hurricane to threaten the East Coast since Dorian in 2019.

Yeah, a June MDR storm seems to be the norm now.

2020 had a brief limon in the MDR.

2021 had future Hurricane Elsa form in the MDR on June 30th. Elsa was the earliest 5th named storm on record.

2022 had Bonnie having TS force winds but not a very good circulation so it was a PTC.

2023 had Bret and Cindy, the first time on record that two TC formed in the MDR in June and were active at the same time.

2024 had the freck Hurricane Beryl, which became a extremely rare June Major and the first June MDR Major on record.
———————————————————————— ————————————————————————
What is the atmospheric conditions responsible for this uptick in June MDR activity these last five years?

The uptick arguably started in 2017 with Bret and then Beryl in 2018. I think it's at least in part due to consistently warmer than average ssts, a strong WAM, and the mjo entering a favorable phase during the late June timeframe.

[Steve]

Happy New Years!
As I ready my firepit for an enjoyable Central Florida chill tonight here's my quick (entirely unscientific) January "hunch" for 2025. Three straight landfalls in August to include Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle. Primary threats being the Bahamas, Florida, & South Carolina. Thereafter, I think we'll see a return to seeing storm tracks recurving east of the CONUS but not without a serious Cat 4 or 5 threat to Puerto Rico and/or Leeward Islands. Otherwise, my gut is that 2025 will also end moderately above average in terms of numbers of named storms.

Hey chaser. It’s still cold in NWFL and looks to be that way at least for the next week. I don’t see a big recurve season based on the way the troughs and highs have been coming down - and it’s only January so we haven’t reached the midpoint of winter. Looks to me like it could be a scattered season. There are always recurves and surely 2025 will have them. Not that things repeat but there are some analogies re Florida 2004 and 2024 as far as landfalls. We know what followed 2004 which was a much worse season (with Deep South snowfall at Christmas 2004 vs 16 days after in 2024). No way am I suggesting 2025 will parallel 2005. But the clues to the season are in the weather patterns. If a mean trough sets up in the west in February, the whole gulf and east coasts are going to be open at times during the summer and fall. TBD

[WalterWhite]

What will be interesting to see is whether or not this season features development before June 1. This does not mean much, but it would make it more “in line” with other recent seasons.

[chaser1]

Happy New Years!
As I ready my firepit for an enjoyable Central Florida chill tonight here's my quick (entirely unscientific) January "hunch" for 2025. Three straight landfalls in August to include Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle. Primary threats being the Bahamas, Florida, & South Carolina. Thereafter, I think we'll see a return to seeing storm tracks recurving east of the CONUS but not without a serious Cat 4 or 5 threat to Puerto Rico and/or Leeward Islands. Otherwise, my gut is that 2025 will also end moderately above average in terms of numbers of named storms.

Hey chaser. It’s still cold in NWFL and looks to be that way at least for the next week. I don’t see a big recurve season based on the way the troughs and highs have been coming down - and it’s only January so we haven’t reached the midpoint of winter. Looks to me like it could be a scattered season. There are always recurves and surely 2025 will have them. Not that things repeat but there are some analogies re Florida 2004 and 2024 as far as landfalls. We know what followed 2004 which was a much worse season (with Deep South snowfall at Christmas 2004 vs 16 days after in 2024). No way am I suggesting 2025 will parallel 2005. But the clues to the season are in the weather patterns. If a mean trough sets up in the west in February, the whole gulf and east coasts are going to be open at times during the summer and fall. TBD

Hi there Steve! Yeah, my friends up in the Panhandle are miserable with this continuing cold weather LOL. As for the upcoming hurricane season fingers crossed that there's no 2005/2025 similarities. Just given the law of averages my thoughts are that the east coast might be due given how the peninsula west coast has taken it on the chin in recent years. It will be interesting to see how the overall pattern begins to take shape come late Spring. Stay warm

[chaser1]

What will be interesting to see is whether or not this season features development before June 1. This does not mean much, but it would make it more “in line” with other recent seasons.

True, we have seen more May development over the recent decade or two. On the other hand, I tend to lean against 2025 having early development soley due to anticipated residual La Nina conditions. Seems to me that early development tends to go more hand in hand with El Nino years although I can't say that I have actually charted out the past ENSO events to verify that.

[AnnularCane]

Happy New Years!
As I ready my firepit for an enjoyable Central Florida chill tonight here's my quick (entirely unscientific) January "hunch" for 2025. Three straight landfalls in August to include Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle. Primary threats being the Bahamas, Florida, & South Carolina. Thereafter, I think we'll see a return to seeing storm tracks recurving east of the CONUS but not without a serious Cat 4 or 5 threat to Puerto Rico and/or Leeward Islands. Otherwise, my gut is that 2025 will also end moderately above average in terms of numbers of named storms.

Hey chaser. It’s still cold in NWFL and looks to be that way at least for the next week. I don’t see a big recurve season based on the way the troughs and highs have been coming down - and it’s only January so we haven’t reached the midpoint of winter. Looks to me like it could be a scattered season. There are always recurves and surely 2025 will have them. Not that things repeat but there are some analogies re Florida 2004 and 2024 as far as landfalls. We know what followed 2004 which was a much worse season (with Deep South snowfall at Christmas 2004 vs 16 days after in 2024). No way am I suggesting 2025 will parallel 2005. But the clues to the season are in the weather patterns. If a mean trough sets up in the west in February, the whole gulf and east coasts are going to be open at times during the summer and fall. TBD

Why February?

[WalterWhite]

What will be interesting to see is whether or not this season features development before June 1. This does not mean much, but it would make it more “in line” with other recent seasons.

True, we have seen more May development over the recent decade or two. On the other hand, I tend to lean against 2025 having early development soley due to anticipated residual La Nina conditions. Seems to me that early development tends to go more hand in hand with El Nino years although I can't say that I have actually charted out the past ENSO events to verify that.

Off the top of my head, 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023 were years that followed La Niña winters but featured pre-season formation in the Atlantic. This winter is shaping to be ENSO neutral, and off the top of my head, 2020 was a season that followed an ENSO neutral winter but had pre-season development.

[Steve]

February is +/- the peak of winter. You have to watch the evolution of the trough patterns and how far west they back to as they come down and set up. It’s only a general clue, but the farther west they are clues how far west you might get tracks. For instance if the mean trough sets up in the Mississippi Valley, you’d expect tracks east of that in the late summer. If they set up in Texas or the Rockies, the whole Gulf can be open. If they set up east of the Mississippi, you’d expect more of an east coast or fish season. It’s just a general tool and something we can look at in the winter to get hints about the hurricane season. This doesn’t factor in specific conditions for specific patterns, home brew systems or one offs.