Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

The 00z GFS looks good above the surface, but in some areas of DFW, a lot of the snow falls with surface temps right at 32F.

Yeah that's why I laugh a little when Bastardi goes full apocalypse with some of his social media hype predictions. High impact event no question for a day, "but 2-3 day shutdown"? Lol. I would expect surface temps to cool initially but then rise a degree or two and hold steady perhaps during most of that.

You don’t think a foot of snow would shut down DFW for a couple days?

Depends on surface temps obviously. It can snow above 32 degrees and so while a foot is probably a high end prediction, it's what actually sticks to roads and doesn't melt will of course determine impacts to travel. Most models warm above freezing Friday anyway and so yeah seems a little hype driven in my opinion .

[Gotwood]

Sure it happens both ways. Feb 2010 storm NWS still had 1-3” up when it started snowing and almost everybody got a foot because the ULL slowed way way down. Kinda like what NTX is saying about this one.

Had one in January 82 that was supposed to give us 6-8” and nothing. Not a flake. Sheared out.

Lately though I find the FWD crew to be pretty accurate of late, not that they have had many chances of late. Haha

I remember that storm very vividly. Had checked WPC (might have been called HPC at the time) and had a circle right around the DFW region for 10% of 12" or greater. Brushed it off completely. One of the mets who doesn't post anymore noted how strong the STJ was coming out of the East Pacific. That was the telling sign. The guidance had said we would be too warm right before it started but for some snow as the coastal low would take the qpf. But the phase ejected the jet northeastward. Our friend orangeblood was constantly posting the RAP and how convection kept back building out of the west-southwest and it continued the rest is history.

I drove right into Plano during the early 1/3rd of that storm. Was wild. Moisture just kept streaming in and in all night. City was like walking around at a ski resort for the rest of the weekend.


Very very good sign that the ULL is phasing earlier. Exactly what you want. DFW is going to get buried by this thing. Also, it's very possible to think that the GFS is on the lower side of snow falling. If its saying 12", its possible some spots get close to 20".

My body is ready!!!!

[Ntxw]

GEFS totals going up from prior runs.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah that's why I laugh a little when Bastardi goes full apocalypse with some of his social media hype predictions. High impact event no question for a day, "but 2-3 day shutdown"? Lol. I would expect surface temps to cool initially but then rise a degree or two and hold steady perhaps during most of that.

You don’t think a foot of snow would shut down DFW for a couple days?

Depends on surface temps obviously. It can snow above 32 degrees and so while a foot is probably a high end prediction, it's what actually sticks to roads and doesn't melt will of course determine impacts to travel. Most models warm above freezing Friday anyway and so yeah seems a little hype driven in my opinion .

It is very unlikely that DFW gets above freezing Friday and there is a good chance they don't on Sat either.

[orangeblood]

Yeah that's why I laugh a little when Bastardi goes full apocalypse with some of his social media hype predictions. High impact event no question for a day, "but 2-3 day shutdown"? Lol. I would expect surface temps to cool initially but then rise a degree or two and hold steady perhaps during most of that.

You don’t think a foot of snow would shut down DFW for a couple days?

Depends on surface temps obviously. It can snow above 32 degrees and so while a foot is probably a high end prediction, it's what actually sticks to roads and doesn't melt will of course determine impacts to travel. Most models warm above freezing Friday anyway and so yeah seems a little hype driven in my opinion .

Not with a snow pack of that magnitude, temps will barely make it above freezing and will crater at night to refreeze everything.

[HockeyTx82]

You don’t think a foot of snow would shut down DFW for a couple days?

Depends on surface temps obviously. It can snow above 32 degrees and so while a foot is probably a high end prediction, it's what actually sticks to roads and doesn't melt will of course determine impacts to travel. Most models warm above freezing Friday anyway and so yeah seems a little hype driven in my opinion .

Not with a snow pack of that magnitude, temps will barely make it above freezing and will crater at night to refreeze everything.

Yeah we have a friend flying in at 3:00pm on Saturday. We told her it might not happen, of course she's coming in from Iowa so they're used to it.

But if it does it'll be White Knuckle driving in my Telluride.

[Stratton23]

CMC and the GFS have yet another gulf low developing after this one with more wintry precipitation for parts of the state, what an incredible pattern!

[orangeblood]

GEFS totals going up from prior runs.

https://i.imgur.com/ceugUcY.png

https://i.imgur.com/NpgDfFs.gif

Those animated GEFS images crack me up…what a ridiculous model, reminds me of a dog chasing its tail until it finally realizes what’s happening

[Ntxw]

CMC and the GFS have yet another gulf low developing after this one with more wintry precipitation for parts of the state, what an incredible pattern!

Yeah not sure there will be any phasing with that next system but it's been showing up on ensembles. Hoping you guys in far SE Texas gets in on that one, a slightly more positive tilt trough is what you'll be looking for.

[Iceresistance]

Good lord CMC, two storms in 10 days


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnos.gif


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXnDG.png

[cheezyWXguy]

You don’t think a foot of snow would shut down DFW for a couple days?

Depends on surface temps obviously. It can snow above 32 degrees and so while a foot is probably a high end prediction, it's what actually sticks to roads and doesn't melt will of course determine impacts to travel. Most models warm above freezing Friday anyway and so yeah seems a little hype driven in my opinion .

It is very unlikely that DFW gets above freezing Friday and there is a good chance they don't on Sat either.

Unless the clouds stick around for the duration of Friday, I’m not sure it would matter if we get above freezing or not. Sunlight seems to have accelerate melting even when temps are below freezing. Also, while these next couple of nights will be cold, I’m not sure it will be enough to cool the roads for the snow to remain without turning to slush and eventually melt off.

I was in Plano during the 2010 event and the roads were only wet by the next day, didn’t even get a day off school for it haha. It does look like temps will be a couple degrees cooler this though, so maybe it won’t melt as quickly, but I personally would be a lot more worried about travel impacts if this were all sleet, which seems to stick to everything and stay there once temps get below 32. That said, probably best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, no need for a false sense of security when the event hasn’t even happened yet.

[iorange55]

Man, it’s gonna be such a close call for Austin. I’ll be happy with anything honestly. I wasn’t expecting much down here, so every flake or sleet pellet is a bonus.

[txtwister78]

You don’t think a foot of snow would shut down DFW for a couple days?

Depends on surface temps obviously. It can snow above 32 degrees and so while a foot is probably a high end prediction, it's what actually sticks to roads and doesn't melt will of course determine impacts to travel. Most models warm above freezing Friday anyway and so yeah seems a little hype driven in my opinion .

Not with a snow pack of that magnitude, temps will barely make it above freezing and will crater at night to refreeze everything.

I think Bubba's point was most models (certainly the GFS) have snow falling around 32-31 degrees with road temps much warmer than that and so while a foot is obviously a lot (keep in mind the NBM is way under that accumulation range right now for DFW), how much of that actually sticks to create a "shutdown" of travel for 2-3 days is highly debatable and that's my opinion. High impact event potentially for a day no doubt.

[Cpv17]

CMC and the GFS have yet another gulf low developing after this one with more wintry precipitation for parts of the state, what an incredible pattern!

Yeah, not trying to sound greedy or anything, but really wondering if we can get that MJO to slow down so we can make this last into February.

[HockeyTx82]

Channel 5 just said trace to 1-3 inches........

[txtwister78]

CMC and the GFS have yet another gulf low developing after this one with more wintry precipitation for parts of the state, what an incredible pattern!

Yeah, not trying to sound greedy or anything, but really wondering if we can get that MJO to slow down so we can make this last into February.

I think mid-month range probably looks like our best bet for higher impact cold based on teleconnection trends (no more positive PNA to deal with) and even some ensemble support already showing up.

[orangeblood]

Depends on surface temps obviously. It can snow above 32 degrees and so while a foot is probably a high end prediction, it's what actually sticks to roads and doesn't melt will of course determine impacts to travel. Most models warm above freezing Friday anyway and so yeah seems a little hype driven in my opinion .

It is very unlikely that DFW gets above freezing Friday and there is a good chance they don't on Sat either.

Unless the clouds stick around for the duration of Friday, I’m not sure it would matter if we get above freezing or not. Sunlight seems to have accelerate melting even when temps are below freezing. Also, while these next couple of nights will be cold, I’m not sure it will be enough to cool the roads for the snow to remain without turning to slush and eventually melt off.

I was in Plano during the 2010 event and the roads were only wet by the next day, didn’t even get a day off school for it haha. It does look like temps will be a couple degrees cooler this though, so maybe it won’t melt as quickly, but I personally would be a lot more worried about travel impacts if this were all sleet, which seems to stick to everything and stay there once temps get below 32. That said, probably best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, no need for a false sense of security when the event hasn’t even happened yet.

2010 had different dynamics at play than this one….it occurred in February, was a much shorter cold snap that warmed up quickly and was pretty wet snow from what I remember. we may not get out of the 30s for the next 2 weeks with refreezes almost every night this time around.

[cheezyWXguy]

Channel 5 just said trace to 1-3 inches........

Sounds like channel 5 is trying hard not to cry wolf for the time being

[Ntxw]

Latest from NWS FW.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1113 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest air so far this season is expected the next few
nights. Overnight lows will drop into the teens and lower 20s.
Wind chills will drop into the single digits and low teens
tonight and the teens Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There is now high confidence in some wintry precipitation
Wednesday night through Friday morning, with a 80-90% chance of
at least measurable (>0.1") snowfall accumulations. There is
increasing confidence in a more impactful winter storm during
this timeframe, including snowfall accumulations >4".

They may be ready to pull the trigger on watches soon.

[orangeblood]

Latest from NWS FW.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1113 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest air so far this season is expected the next few
nights. Overnight lows will drop into the teens and lower 20s.
Wind chills will drop into the single digits and low teens
tonight and the teens Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There is now high confidence in some wintry precipitation
Wednesday night through Friday morning, with a 80-90% chance of
at least measurable (>0.1") snowfall accumulations. There is
increasing confidence in a more impactful winter storm during
this timeframe, including snowfall accumulations >4".

They may be ready to pull the trigger on watches soon.

They’re going to have a really busy week. Can’t imagine the travel nightmare this is going to turn into for Cotton Bowl Travelers