Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

Wow the 0z ICON came in more aggressive.

[Stratton23]

Wouldnt be shocked if the NAM is correct, frozen precipitation further south than anticipated, ive seen this story time after time, it almost always happens

[Ralph's Weather]

NAM is good for temps not as much for precip profile. It has most of the state except the immediate coast below freezing at 925mb Thu morning so most precip would be frozen of some variety.

[Ntxw]

Just from scrolling Facebook Bastardi is hyping DFW while Delkus has the best snow north of DFW

The OKC station has a lot of snow up in Oklahoma

Run to run its come down to qpf amounts where it can snow. Amped solution is able to create some lift in Oklahoma as the main vorticity comes out. Further south it is the intersection of highest qpf and cold enough column.

[Stratton23]

00z RGEM looking very similar to the NAM, maybe seeing a trend here in the short range guidance

[iorange55]

That latest icon run looks powerful

[wxman22]

The RGEM

[Stratton23]

SREF guidance mean is further south like the NAM/RGEM

[Lagreeneyes03]

Since the frozen precip seems to be expanding more than we saw a few days ago, what are the ERCOT impacts expected? Should we expect rolling blackouts at all or is the most dangerous reason for power outages going to be the FRZ Rain?/weight of snow/ice? Debating on a firewood purchase tomorrow....

[wxman22]

[Quixotic]

The RGEM

https://i.ibb.co/r6dFqW6/rgem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-84-1.png

Looks like banding to me

[txtwister78]

SREF guidance mean is further south like the NAM/RGEM

Yup posted above. Earlier precip start times were always going to mean more winter precip further south. That appears to be the growing trend tonight with each incoming model run including NAM/REGEM/SREF. The question now becomes how far south does the snow line make it. Answer to that question still probably a few more model runs away as we get a better handle on the system out of the SW and how cold upper levels can get. If you can get some convective precip bands to start early enough then perhaps that transition takes place where models show sleet now.

[HockeyTx82]

Man if this actually happens I guess there really is something to the saying, Thunder in winter snow to follow.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 any chance if the short range guidance is correct, of aome of this frozen precipitation reaching se texas? , im about 45 miles west of houston in katy

[bubba hotep]

Temp profiles look pretty good throughout the event for DFW on the 00z ICON

[Cpv17]

Man if this actually happens I guess there really is something to the saying, Thunder in winter snow to follow.

It doesn’t always happen, but it does happen enough to warrant that saying.

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 any chance if the short range guidance is correct, of aome of this frozen precipitation reaching se texas? , im about 45 miles west of houston in katy

Can't rule anything out but Brazos Valley region probably more favored area right now for mixed precip. It's tough to get that into Houston metro with so much moisture (warm air upstairs) in place and with the coastal low developing south of Brownsville and moving up the coast. You really need more arctic air in place than what we have.

[Ntxw]

GFS phasing a little faster, could be a big run from it.

[Quixotic]

Since the frozen precip seems to be expanding more than we saw a few days ago, what are the ERCOT impacts expected? Should we expect rolling blackouts at all or is the most dangerous reason for power outages going to be the FRZ Rain?/weight of snow/ice? Debating on a firewood purchase tomorrow....

I don’t think it’s cold enough for ERCOT to be caught slipping this time. It’s not like 21 when it was below freezing every day across the state. I always keep half a cord of firewood though. You never know.

[Iceresistance]

GFS phasing a little faster, could be a big run from it.

Oh yeah, it's trending faster, but also stronger


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXna5.gif