Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Fifty Rock]

I sure hope this pans out for everyone. We moved away from DFW and built a new home in 2023 on our property at the foot of the Greer Mountains in Shackelford County and it would make for a beautiful couple of days with them covered in snow.

Disclaimer, they are hills that rise about 170 feet above us.

[Iceresistance]

It's snowing! With tiny flakes!

23°F with a WC of 7°F

[txtwister78]

Euro definitely still delivers for a good chunk of the state, but one thing I am noticing is these slight shifts south with the low and a coastal low trying to develop near Brownsville, could be a sign that these small shifts south may continue in terms of QPF but that would also signal more snow further south with more drier air perhaps being able to filter down.

Would definitely ensure areas across central and N TX remain all snow

[wxman22]

12Z EURO

[txtwister78]

Just to give everyone an idea of where we were last night to now. Again, still could see some fluctuations back and forth here but Euro shifting south last few runs a bit.

[Stratton23]

and the Euro tries to bring a 2nd winter storm in the state around the 16th lol, insane

[Ntxw]

and the Euro tries to bring a 2nd winter storm in the state around the 16th lol, insane

Some of the ENS snowfall means is not all this coming storm but also that later potential. As we approach the ~20th there is more potential. Also any change in direction of S/Ws before then could as well.

[Brandon8181]

Just to give everyone an idea of where we were last night to now. Again, still could see some fluctuations back and forth here but Euro shifting south last few runs a bit.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736035200/1736499600-FbVgSPZ6Gf0.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736078400/1736532000-fBuTxSdRIQ0.png

I had mentioned yesterday that I felt the euro was a little far north with it’s output.

[gpsnowman]

and the Euro tries to bring a 2nd winter storm in the state around the 16th lol, insane

Some of the ENS snowfall means is not all this coming storm but also that later potential. As we approach the ~20th there is more potential. Also any change in direction of S/Ws before then could as well.

Is this the period where we could see a western shift with the trough eliminating the +PNA? Also keeping the precipitation chances with colder air to tap into?

[Ntxw]

and the Euro tries to bring a 2nd winter storm in the state around the 16th lol, insane

Some of the ENS snowfall means is not all this coming storm but also that later potential. As we approach the ~20th there is more potential. Also any change in direction of S/Ws before then could as well.

Is this the period where we could see a western shift with the trough eliminating the +PNA? Also keeping the precipitation chances with colder air to tap into?

Yeah, these shortwaves won't stop coming between now and then. They are modeled to continue digging, sometimes providing rain, snow etc depending on location. We just don't have fresh cold available just yet. Later month source region reloads.

[gpsnowman]

Ugh. We just lost power here in GP.

[Texas Snow]

Flight is finally about to leave. Y’all bring me some good ensembles news to read when i land!

[OtakuForecaster]

Some of the ENS snowfall means is not all this coming storm but also that later potential. As we approach the ~20th there is more potential. Also any change in direction of S/Ws before then could as well.

Is this the period where we could see a western shift with the trough eliminating the +PNA? Also keeping the precipitation chances with colder air to tap into?

Yeah, these shortwaves won't stop coming between now and then. They are modeled to continue digging, sometimes providing rain, snow etc depending on location. We just don't have fresh cold available just yet. Later month source region reloads.

Yup! The coldest temperatures aren't typically reached for the nation as a whole on average until around January 23, iirc. There's typically a lag, just like with hurricane season and severe weather.

[wxman22]

Flight is finally about to leave. Y’all bring me some good ensembles news to read when i land!

Here you go.

[Texas Snow]

Flight is finally about to leave. Y’all bring me some good ensembles news to read when i land!

Here you go.

https://i.ibb.co/PgXCwbQ/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc-7.png

Love it! But now that I saw it as we taxi, I’ll need more good news.

[rwfromkansas]

Coastal lows terrify me. No.

[JayDT]

I don’t know if it’s just me not paying attention to that, but I had never heard of a Cold Weather Advisory.

[Ntxw]

Timing for the I-20 corridor (based on Euro and ICON combo) would be Thursday morning starting up and snowing through to Friday morning. +/- 6 hours in the west TX and far northeastern TX.

I'm still not fully sold on much ice because upper cold is pairing up well with the lower surface cold, transition zone will be fairly small either rain or rain/snow/sleet mix region. Not sure I'm sold on the CMC it's temp profiles just is not what's typical for this 5h set up. Unless the cold is much more intense and stubborn to erode then the onset can see some where it's warmer aloft but below freezing.

[DonWrk]

Coastal lows terrify me. No.

Exactly, so many times they cut off all moisture for the North. Been worried about that for a while.

[Ntxw]

Coastal lows terrify me. No.

SW to NE jet should save us here. It's actually a good thing a coastal low forms it will help provide moisture when drawn up by the upper levels. As long as the flow is favorable and not positive tilt.

Feb 2010 the phase did the same thing. Convective qpf bands from w-sw Texas kept coming as the phase happened despite coastal low, where SE Texas got a lot of qpf. We snowed with a SE wind.